Dataset Information

Robust two-stage influenza prediction model considering regular and irregular trends.

ABSTRACT: Influenza causes numerous deaths worldwide every year. Predicting the number of influenza patients is an important task for medical institutions. Two types of data regarding influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) are often used for flu prediction: (1) historical data and (2) user generated content (UGC) data on the web such as search queries and tweets. Historical data have an advantage against the normal state but show disadvantages against irregular phenomena. In contrast, UGC data are advantageous for irregular phenomena. So far, no effective model providing the benefits of both types of data has been devised. This study proposes a novel model, designated the two-stage model, which combines both historical and UGC data. The basic idea is, first, basic regular trends are estimated using the historical data-based model, and then, irregular trends are predicted by the UGC data-based model. Our approach is practically useful because we can train models separately. Thus, if a UGC provider changes the service, our model could produce better performance because the first part of the model is still stable. Experiments on the US and Japan datasets demonstrated the basic feasibility of the proposed approach. In the dropout (pseudo-noise) test that assumes a UGC service would change, the proposed method also showed robustness against outliers. The proposed model is suitable for prediction of seasonal flu.

SUBMITTER: Murayama T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7241782 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Robust two-stage influenza prediction model considering regular and irregular trends.

Murayama Taichi T Shimizu Nobuyuki N Fujita Sumio S Wakamiya Shoko S Aramaki Eiji E

PloS one 20200521 5

Influenza causes numerous deaths worldwide every year. Predicting the number of influenza patients is an important task for medical institutions. Two types of data regarding influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) are often used for flu prediction: (1) historical data and (2) user generated content (UGC) data on the web such as search queries and tweets. Historical data have an advantage against the normal state but show disadvantages against irregular phenomena. In contrast, UGC data are advantageous f ...[more]

PMID: 32437380

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Project description:BackgroundInfleunza is a challenging issue in public health. The mortality and morbidity associated with epidemic and pandemic influenza puts a heavy burden on health care system. Most patients with influenza can be treated on an outpatient basis but some required critical care. It is crucial for frontline physicians to stratify influenza patients by level of risk. Therefore, this study aimed to create a prediction model for critical care and in-hospital mortality.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study extracted data from the Chang Gung Research Database. This study included the patients who were diagnosed with influenza between 2010 and 2016. The primary outcome of this study was critical illness. The secondary analysis was to predict in-hospital mortality. A two-stage-modeling method was developed to predict hospital mortality. We constructed a multiple logistic regression model to predict the outcome of critical illness in the first stage, then S1 score were calculated. In the second stage, we used the S1 score and other data to construct a backward multiple logistic regression model. The area under the receiver operating curve was used to assess the predictive value of the model.ResultsIn the present study, 1680 patients met the inclusion criteria. The overall ICU admission and in-hospital mortality was 10.36% (174 patients) and 4.29% (72 patients), respectively. In stage I analysis, hypothermia (OR = 1.92), tachypnea (OR = 4.94), lower systolic blood pressure (OR = 2.35), diabetes mellitus (OR = 1.87), leukocytosis (OR = 2.22), leukopenia (OR = 2.70), and a high percentage of segmented neutrophils (OR = 2.10) were associated with ICU admission. Bandemia had the highest odds ratio in the Stage I model (OR = 5.43). In stage II analysis, C-reactive protein (OR = 1.01), blood urea nitrogen (OR = 1.02) and stage I model's S1 score were assocaited with in-hospital mortality. The area under the curve for the stage I and II model was 0.889 and 0.766, respectively.ConclusionsThe two-stage model is a efficient risk-stratification tool for predicting critical illness and mortailty. The model may be an optional tool other than qSOFA and SIRS criteria.

Project description:MotivationElectron tomography (ET) has become an indispensable tool for structural biology studies. In ET, the tilt series alignment and the projection parameter calibration are the key steps toward high-resolution ultrastructure analysis. Usually, fiducial markers are embedded in the sample to aid the alignment. Despite the advances in developing algorithms to find correspondence of fiducial markers from different tilted micrographs, the error rate of the existing methods is still high such that manual correction has to be conducted. In addition, existing algorithms do not work well when the number of fiducial markers is high.ResultsIn this article, we try to completely solve the fiducial marker correspondence problem. We propose to divide the workflow of fiducial marker correspondence into two stages: (i) initial transformation determination, and (ii) local correspondence refinement. In the first stage, we model the transform estimation as a correspondence pair inquiry and verification problem. The local geometric constraints and invariant features are used to reduce the complexity of the problem. In the second stage, we encode the geometric distribution of the fiducial markers by a weighted Gaussian mixture model and introduce drift parameters to correct the effects of beam-induced motion and sample deformation. Comprehensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the robustness, efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Especially, the proposed two-stage algorithm is able to produce an accurate tracking within an average of ⩽ 100 ms per image, even for micrographs with hundreds of fiducial markers, which makes the real-time ET data processing possible.Availability and implementationThe code is available at https://github.com/icthrm/auto-tilt-pair. Additionally, the detailed original figures demonstrated in the experiments can be accessed at https://rb.gy/6adtk4.Supplementary informationSupplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Project description:AimsTo discover whether dental visiting behavior can be understood as a dichotomy of planned versus problem based, or whether there were a range of different types of understanding and patient behavior, recognizable as patterns of dental visiting behavior.MethodsSecondary analysis drawing on 2 qualitative studies of patients' accounts of dental attendance and oral health, with 1) opportunistic interviews with people attending urgent dental care services (n = 43; including 19 with follow-up) and 2) home-based, in-depth interviews with people attending a dental practice with a mixture of improved or deteriorated/poor periodontal health (n = 25).ResultsFour distinguishable patterns of dental visiting were identified in patients' accounts: Accepting and Active Monitoring, as well as Ambivalent and Active Problem-based dental visiting behavior. Individuals' patterns were relatively stable over time but could shift at turning points. Accepting Monitors were characterized as accepting dentists' recommendations and dental practice policies relating to oral health and visits, whereas Active Monitors were more independent in judging how often to attend for preventive appointments, while still valuing anticipatory care. Ambivalent Problem-based visitors placed a relatively low value on anticipatory care for oral health maintenance and drifted into lapsed attendance, in part because of service-related factors. This contrasted with Active Problem-based visitors, for whom using services only in an emergency was a conscious decision, with low value placed on anticipatory care.ConclusionThis article demonstrates the dynamic nature of patterns of dental visiting where the dental system itself is partly instrumental in shaping patterns of utilization in an ecological way. Thus, service-related factors tend to combine with patients' behavior in expanding inequalities. This illuminates the reasons why risk-based recalls are challenging to implement as a dental policy.Knowledge transfer statementThe results of this analysis can be used by clinicians and policymakers to inform policy around supporting uptake of preventive health care visits, contributing in particular to understanding how risk-based preventive visiting policies may be better adapted to patients' understanding of the purpose of visits, taking into account that this is in part shaped by service-related factors in an ecological way, arising from patients' and dental teams' expectations.

Dataset Information

Robust two-stage influenza prediction model considering regular and irregular trends.

Publications

Robust two-stage influenza prediction model considering regular and irregular trends.

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