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30-day mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the first wave of the Italian epidemic: a prospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT: Italy was the first European country hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and has the highest number of recorded COVID-19 deaths in Europe. This prospective cohort study of the correlates of the risk of death in COVID-19 patients was conducted at the Infectious Diseases and Intensive Care units of Luigi Sacco Hospital, Milan, Italy. The clinical characteristics of all the COVID-19 patients hospitalised in the early days of the epidemic (21 February -19 March 2020) were recorded upon admission, and the time-dependent probability of death was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method (censored as of 20 April 2020). Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the factors independently associated with the risk of death. Forty-eight (20.6%) of the 233 patients followed up for a median of 40 days (interquartile range 33-47) died during the follow-up. Most were males (69.1%) and their median age was 61 years (IQR 50-72). The time-dependent probability of death was 19.7% (95% CI 14.6-24.9%) 30 days after hospital admission. Age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.08, 95% CI 1.48-2.92 per ten years more) and obesity (aHR 3.04, 95% CI 1.42-6.49) were independently associated with an increased risk of death, which was also associated with critical disease (aHR 8.26, 95% CI 1.41-48.29), C-reactive protein levels (aHR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.35 per 50?mg/L more) and creatinine kinase levels above 185 U/L (aHR 2.58, 95% CI 1.37-4.87) upon admission. Case-fatality rate of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the early days of the Italian epidemic was about 20%. Our study adds evidence to the notion that older age, obesity and more advanced illness are factors associated to an increased risk of death among patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

SUBMITTER: Giacomelli A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7242199 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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30-day mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the first wave of the Italian epidemic: A prospective cohort study.

Giacomelli Andrea A Ridolfo Anna Lisa AL Milazzo Laura L Oreni Letizia L Bernacchia Dario D Siano Matteo M Bonazzetti Cecilia C Covizzi Alice A Schiuma Marco M Passerini Matteo M Piscaglia Marco M Coen Massimo M Gubertini Guido G Rizzardini Giuliano G Cogliati Chiara C Brambilla Anna Maria AM Colombo Riccardo R Castelli Antonio A Rech Roberto R Riva Agostino A Torre Alessandro A Meroni Luca L Rusconi Stefano S Antinori Spinello S Galli Massimo M

Pharmacological research 20200522

Italy was the first European country hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and has the highest number of recorded COVID-19 deaths in Europe. This prospective cohort study of the correlates of the risk of death in COVID-19 patients was conducted at the Infectious Diseases and Intensive Care units of Luigi Sacco Hospital, Milan, Italy. The clinical characteristics of all the COVID-19 patients hospitalised in the early days of the epidemic (21 February -19 March 2020) were recorded upon admission, and the t ...[more]

PMID: 32446978

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Project description:ImportanceInpatients treated by hospitalist physicians, who often work contiguous days, experience handoffs at the end of a scheduled shift block. Evidence suggests that transitions of patient care, or handoffs, among physician trainees are associated with adverse patient outcomes. However, little is known about the association between handoffs and patient outcomes among attending physicians, even though similar concerns apply.ObjectiveTo examine the association between inpatient handoffs of hospitalist physicians and patient mortality among hospitalized Medicare beneficiaries.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study analyzed a random sample of Medicare beneficiaries who were hospitalized with a general medical condition between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2016, and treated by a hospitalist. The study compared outcomes of patients with low vs high probability of physician handoff based on date of patient admission relative to the admitting hospitalist's last working day in a scheduled block, hypothesizing that otherwise similar patients admitted toward the end of a physician's shift block would be more likely to be handed off to another physician compared with patients admitted earlier in the shift block. Data analysis was performed from July 1, 2018, to January 12, 2021.ExposureHigh vs low probability of physician handoff.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcome was patient 30-day mortality rate.ResultsA total of 1 074 000 patients (mean [SD] age, 75.9 [13.7] years; 57.4% female; 82.1% White) were studied. Multivariable regression models adjusted for beneficiary clinical and demographic characteristics and hospital fixed effects (a within-hospital analysis, effectively comparing patients treated at the same hospital). Among 597 288 hospitalizations, no overall difference in 30-day mortality was observed between patients admitted in the 2 days prior (days -1 and -2) to the treating hospitalist's last working day (a high handoff probability) compared with days -6 and -7 (a low handoff probability) (adjusted rate, 10.6%; 95% CI, 10.5%-10.7% vs 10.6%; 95% CI, 10.5%-10.7%; adjusted difference, 0.0%; 95% CI, -0.2% to 0.1%). However, in an exploratory analysis, among patients with high illness severity, defined as those in the top quartile of estimated mortality, 30-day mortality was higher for those with high vs low likelihood of physician handoff (adjusted mortality, 27.8%; 95% CI, 27.6%-27.9% vs 26.8%; 95% CI, 26.6%-27.1%; absolute adjusted difference, 1.0%; 95% CI, 0.5%-1.4%).Conclusions and relevanceIn this national analysis of Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized with a general medical condition and treated by a hospitalist physician, physician handoff was not associated with increased mortality overall.

Project description:Background: Despite the fact that the burden, risk factors, and clinical characteristics of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) have been studied widely in developed countries, limited data are available from sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, this study aimed at evaluating the clinical characteristics, treatment, and 30-day mortality of patients with ACS admitted to tertiary hospitals in Ethiopia. Methods: A total of 181 ACS patients admitted to tertiary care hospitals in Ethiopia were enrolled from March 15 to November 15, 2018. The clinical characteristics, management, and 30-day mortality were evaluated by ACS subtype. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the predictors of 30-day all-cause mortality. A p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: The majority (61%) of ACS patients were admitted with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The mean age was 56 years, with male predominance (62.4%). More than two-thirds (67.4%) of patients presented to hospital after 12 h of symptom onset. Dyslipidemia (48%) and hypertension (44%) were the most common risk factors identified. In-hospital dual antiplatelet and statin use was high (>90%), followed by beta-blockers (81%) and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs; 72%). Late reperfusion with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was done for only 13 (7.2%), and none of the patients received early reperfusion therapy. The 30-day all-cause mortality rate was 25.4%. On multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis, older age [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.03, 95% CI = 1.003-1.057], systolic blood pressure (HR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.975-1.000), serum creatinine (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.056-1.643), Killip class > II (HR = 4.62, 95% CI = 2.502-8.523), ejection fraction <40% (HR = 2.75, 95% CI = 1.463-5.162), and STEMI (HR = 2.72, 95% CI = 1.006-4.261) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. Conclusions: The 30-day all-cause mortality rate was unacceptably high, which implies an urgent need to establish a nationwide program to reduce pre-hospital delay, promoting the use of guideline-directed medications, and increasing access to reperfusion therapy.

Project description:Importance:Use of locum tenens physicians has increased in the United States, but information about their quality and costs of care is lacking. Objective:To evaluate quality and costs of care among hospitalized Medicare beneficiaries treated by locum tenens vs non-locum tenens physicians. Design, Setting, and Participants:A random sample of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries hospitalized during 2009-2014 was used to compare quality and costs of hospital care delivered by locum tenens and non-locum tenens internal medicine physicians. Exposures:Treatment by locum tenens general internal medicine physicians. Main Outcomes and Measures:The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included inpatient Medicare Part B spending, length of stay, and 30-day readmissions. Differences between locum tenens and non-locum tenens physicians were estimated using multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for beneficiary clinical and demographic characteristics and hospital fixed effects, which enabled comparisons of clinical outcomes between physicians practicing within the same hospital. In prespecified subgroup analyses, outcomes were reevaluated among hospitals with different levels of intensity of locum tenens physician use. Results:Of 1 818 873 Medicare admissions treated by general internists, 38 475 (2.1%) received care from a locum tenens physician; 9.3% (4123/44 520) of general internists were temporarily covered by a locum tenens physician at some point. Differences in patient characteristics, demographics, comorbidities, and reason for admission between locum tenens and non-locum tenens physicians were not clinically relevant. Treatment by locum tenens physicians, compared with treatment by non-locum tenens physicians (n = 44 520 physicians), was not associated with a significant difference in 30-day mortality (8.83% vs 8.70%; adjusted difference, 0.14%; 95% CI, -0.18% to 0.45%). Patients treated by locum tenens physicians had significantly higher Part B spending ($1836 vs $1712; adjusted difference, $124; 95% CI, $93 to $154), significantly longer mean length of stay (5.64 days vs 5.21 days; adjusted difference, 0.43 days; 95% CI, 0.34 to 0.52), and significantly lower 30-day readmissions (22.80% vs 23.83%; adjusted difference, -1.00%; 95% CI -1.57% to -0.54%). Conclusions and Relevance:Among hospitalized Medicare beneficiaries treated by a general internist, there were no significant differences in overall 30-day mortality rates among patients treated by locum tenens compared with non-locum tenens physicians. Additional research may help determine hospital-level factors associated with the quality and costs of care related to locum tenens physicians.

Project description:ImportanceUse of empirical broad-spectrum antibiotics for pneumonia has increased owing to concern for resistant organisms, including methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). The association of empirical anti-MRSA therapy with outcomes among patients with pneumonia is unknown, even for high-risk patients.ObjectiveTo compare 30-day mortality among patients hospitalized for pneumonia receiving empirical anti-MRSA therapy vs standard empirical antibiotic regimens.Design, setting, and participantsRetrospective multicenter cohort study was conducted of all hospitalizations in which patients received either anti-MRSA or standard therapy for community-onset pneumonia in the Veterans Health Administration health care system from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2013. Subgroups of patients analyzed were those with initial intensive care unit admission, MRSA risk factors, positive results of a MRSA surveillance test, and positive results of a MRSA admission culture. Primary analysis was an inverse probability of treatment-weighted propensity score analysis using generalized estimating equation regression; secondary analyses included an instrumental variable analysis. Statistical analysis was conducted from June 14 to November 20, 2019.ExposuresEmpirical anti-MRSA therapy plus standard pneumonia therapy vs standard therapy alone within the first day of hospitalization.Main outcomes and measuresRisk of 30-day all-cause mortality after adjustment for patient comorbidities, vital signs, and laboratory results. Secondary outcomes included the development of kidney injury and secondary infections with Clostridioides difficile, vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus species, or gram-negative bacilli.ResultsAmong 88 605 hospitalized patients (86 851 men; median age, 70 years [interquartile range, 62-81 years]), empirical anti-MRSA therapy was administered to 33 632 (38%); 8929 patients (10%) died within 30 days. Compared with standard therapy alone, in weighted propensity score analysis, empirical anti-MRSA therapy plus standard therapy was significantly associated with an increased adjusted risk of death (adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 1.4 [95% CI, 1.3-1.5]), kidney injury (aRR, 1.4 [95% CI, 1.3-1.5]), and secondary C difficile infections (aRR, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.3-1.9]), vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus spp infections (aRR, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.0-2.3]), and secondary gram-negative rod infections (aRR, 1.5 [95% CI, 1.2-1.8]). Similar associations between anti-MRSA therapy use and 30-day mortality were found by instrumental variable analysis (aRR, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.4-1.9]) and among patients admitted to the intensive care unit (aRR, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.2-1.5]), those with a high risk for MRSA (aRR, 1.2 [95% CI, 1.1-1.4]), and those with MRSA detected on surveillance testing (aRR, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.3-1.9]). No significant favorable association was found between empirical anti-MRSA therapy and death among patients with MRSA detected on culture (aRR, 1.1 [95% CI, 0.8-1.4]).Conclusions and relevanceThis study suggests that empirical anti-MRSA therapy was not associated with reduced mortality for any group of patients hospitalized for pneumonia. These results contribute to a growing body of evidence that questions the value of empirical use of anti-MRSA therapy using existing risk approaches.

Project description:BackgroundReadmission in older adults is typically complex with multiple contributing factors. We aim to examine how two prevalent and potentially modifiable geriatric conditions - depressive symptoms and malnutrition - relate to other geriatric syndromes and 30-day readmission in hospitalized older adults.MethodsConsecutive admissions of patients ≥ 65 years to a general medical department were recruited over 16 months. Patients were screened for depression, malnutrition, delirium, cognitive impairment, and frailty at admission. Medical records were reviewed for poor oral intake and functional decline during hospitalization. Unplanned readmission within 30-days of discharge was tracked through the hospital's electronic health records and follow-up telephone interviews. We use directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to depict the relationship of depressive symptoms and malnutrition with geriatric syndromes that constitute covariates of interest and 30-day readmission outcome. Multiple logistic regression was performed for the independent associations of depressive symptoms and malnutrition with 30-day readmission, adjusting for variables based on DAG-identified minimal adjustment set.ResultsWe recruited 1619 consecutive admissions, with mean age 76.4 (7.9) years and 51.3% females. 30-day readmission occurred in 331 (22.0%) of 1,507 patients with follow-up data. Depressive symptoms, malnutrition, higher comorbidity burden, hospitalization in the one-year preceding index admission, frailty, delirium, as well as functional decline and poor oral intake during the index admission, were more commonly observed among patients who were readmitted within 30 days of discharge (P < 0.05). Patients with active depressive symptoms were significantly more likely to be frail (OR = 1.62, 95% CI 1.22-2.16), had poor oral intake (OR = 1.35, 95% CI 1.02-1.79) and functional decline during admission (OR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.11-2.23). Malnutrition at admission was significantly associated with frailty (OR = 1.53, 95% CI 1.07-2.19), delirium (OR = 2.33, 95% CI 1.60-3.39) cognitive impairment (OR = 1.88, 95% CI 1.39-2.54) and poor oral intake during hospitalization (OR = 2.70, 95% CI 2.01-3.64). In minimal adjustment set identified by DAG, depressive symptoms (OR = 1.38, 95% CI 1.02-1.86) remained significantly associated with 30-day readmission. The association of malnutrition with 30-day readmission was no longer statistically significant after adjusting for age, ethnicity and depressive symptoms in the minimal adjustment set (OR = 1.40, 95% CI 0.99-1.98).ConclusionThe observed causal associations support screening and targeted interventions for depressive symptoms and malnutrition during admission and in the post-acute period.

Dataset Information

30-day mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the first wave of the Italian epidemic: a prospective cohort study.

Publications

30-day mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the first wave of the Italian epidemic: A prospective cohort study.

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