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Inferring super-spreading from transmission clusters of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore.

ABSTRACT: Super-spreading events in an outbreak can change the nature of an epidemic. Therefore, it is useful for public health teams to determine whether an ongoing outbreak has any contribution from such events, which may be amenable to interventions. We estimated the basic reproductive number (R0) and the dispersion factor (k) from empirical data on clusters of epidemiologically linked coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore. This allowed us to infer the presence or absence of super-spreading events during the early phase of these outbreaks. The relatively large values of k implied that large cluster sizes, compatible with super-spreading, were unlikely.

SUBMITTER: Kwok KO

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7242928 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Inferring super-spreading from transmission clusters of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore.

Kwok K O KO Chan H H H HHH Huang Y Y Hui D S C DSC Tambyah P A PA Wei W I WI Chau P Y K PYK Wong S Y S SYS Tang J W T JWT

The Journal of hospital infection 20200522 4

Super-spreading events in an outbreak can change the nature of an epidemic. Therefore, it is useful for public health teams to determine whether an ongoing outbreak has any contribution from such events, which may be amenable to interventions. We estimated the basic reproductive number (R<sub>0</sub>) and the dispersion factor (k) from empirical data on clusters of epidemiologically linked coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore. This allowed us to infer the p ...[more]

PMID: 32446721

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Project description:BackgroundGiven the dynamism and heterogeneity of COVID-19 transmission patterns, determining the most effective yet timely strategies for specific regions remains a severe challenge for public health decision-makers.MethodsIn this work, we proposed a spatiotemporal connectivity analysis method for discovering transmission patterns across geographic locations and age-groups throughout different COVID-19 outbreak phases. First, we constructed the transmission networks of the confirmed cases during different phases by considering the spatiotemporal connectivity of any two cases. Then, for each case and those cases immediately pointed from it, we characterized the corresponding cross-district/population transmission pattern by counting their district-to-district and age-to-age occurrences. By summating the cross-district/population transmission patterns of all cases during a given period, we obtained the aggregated cross-district and cross-population transmission patterns.FindingsWe conducted a region-wide comprehensive retrospective study in Hong Kong based on the complete data report of COVID-19 cases, covering all 18 districts between January 23, 2020, and January 8, 2021 (https://data.gov.hk/en-data/dataset/hk-dh-chpsebcddr-novel-infectious-agent). The spatiotemporal connectivity analysis clearly unveiled the quantitative differences among various outbreak waves in their transmission scales, durations, and patterns. Moreover, for the statistically similar waves, their cross-district/population transmission patterns could be quite different (e.g., the cross-district transmission of the fourth wave was more diverse than that of the third wave, while the transmission over age-groups of the fourth wave was more concentrated than that of the third wave). At an overall level, super-spreader individuals (highly connected cases in the transmission networks) were usually concentrated in only a few districts (2 out of 18 in our study) or age-groups (3 out of 11 in our study).InterpretationWith the discovered cross-district or cross-population transmission patterns, all of the waves of COVID-19 outbreaks in Hong Kong can be systematically scrutinized. Among all districts, quite a few (e.g., the Yau Tsim Mong district) were instrumental in spreading the virus throughout the pandemic. Aside from being exceptionally densely populated, these districts were also social-economic centers. With a variety of situated public venues, such as restaurants and singing/dancing clubs, these districts played host to all kinds of social gathering events, thereby providing opportunities for widespread and rapid transmission of the virus. Thus, these districts should be given the highest priority when deploying district-specific social distancing or intervention strategies, such as lockdown and stringent mandatory coronavirus testing for identifying and obstructing the chain of transmission. We also observed that most of the reported cases and the highly connected cases were middle-aged and elderly people (40- to 69-year-olds). People in these age-groups were active in various public places and social activities, and thus had high chances of being infected by or infecting others.FundingGeneral research fund of the Hong Kong research grants council.

Dataset Information

Inferring super-spreading from transmission clusters of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore.

Publications

Inferring super-spreading from transmission clusters of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore.

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