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Temporal and spatial trends of ischemic heart disease burden in Chinese and subgroup populations from 1990 to 2016: socio-economical data from the 2016 global burden of disease study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of premature death which poses public health challenges worldwide. Previous studies focused on the overall population in China. However, variations in temporal and spatial patterns across subgroups remain unknown. This study was to analyze how the IHD burden among Chinese and subgroup populations changes in response to temporal and spatial trends from 1990 to 2016. METHODS:Based on data from the updated estimate in the 2016 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we used years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to describe the IHD burden. The percentage and annual average percentage changes were applied to illustrate temporal and spatial variations of the IHD burden stratified by age, sex, and province, over the periods 1990-2016, 1990-2005, and 2005-2016. We estimate population-attributable fraction (PAF) for 24 modifiable risk factors at the provincial level in 2016. RESULTS:YLD rates, YLL rates, and DALY rates for IHD underwent a notable increase among all age groups and increased by 119.4, 83.3, and 84.5% nationally from 1990 to 2016. In YLD rates, a greater increase was seen in females (124.4%) compared to males (114.0%), while males experienced a more substantial increase than that in females in YLL rates (99.3% vs. 60.5%) and DALY rates (99.7% vs. 63.2%) from 1990 to 2016. Compared with 1990-2005, annual average changes in the overall population in YLL rates (3.5% vs. 1.8%) and DALY rates (3.5% vs. 1.9%) showed a tardier increase whereas an opposite increasing trend of YLD rates (3.5% vs. 4.0%) was observed between 2005 and 2016. Geographically, all provinces saw declines in the YLLs/YLDs ratio from 2005 to 2016, with seventeen of thirty-three provinces showing an upward trend between 1990 and 2005. Most provinces witnessed a remarkable upsurge in the age-standardised DALY rate from 1990 to 2016 whereas the economically advantaged region Macao (52.2%) saw the most marked reduction. High systolic blood pressure and high LDL cholesterol remained the two leading risk factors of IHD in all provinces in 2016. Diet high in sodium was the leading behavioral risks in twenty-eight provinces with smoking heading the list in five provinces. CONCLUSIONS:China has made significant achievements in preventing premature death from IHD along with the increased risk of disability. Substantial disparities in temporal and spatial trends of the IHD burden emphasize concerns for elderly men and those in economically disadvantaged regions with resource constraints. Regional differences in the IHD burden can be partly explained by modifiable risk factors. By having identified these disparities, targeted IHD prevention and control strategies will help to bridge these gaps.

SUBMITTER: Wang C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7247238 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Temporal and spatial trends of ischemic heart disease burden in Chinese and subgroup populations from 1990 to 2016: socio-economical data from the 2016 global burden of disease study.

Wang Chenran C Wang Chunping C Liu Mi M Chen Zhe Z Liu Shiwei S

BMC cardiovascular disorders 20200524 1

<h4>Background</h4>Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of premature death which poses public health challenges worldwide. Previous studies focused on the overall population in China. However, variations in temporal and spatial patterns across subgroups remain unknown. This study was to analyze how the IHD burden among Chinese and subgroup populations changes in response to temporal and spatial trends from 1990 to 2016.<h4>Methods</h4>Based on data from the updated estimate in the 2 ...[more]

PMID: 32448161

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Project description:ImportanceCardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the top cause of death in China. To our knowledge, no consistent and comparable assessments of CVD burden have been produced at subnational levels, and little is understood about the spatial patterns and temporal trends of CVD in China.ObjectiveTo determine the national and province-level burden of CVD from 1990 to 2016 in China.Design, setting, and participantsFollowing the methodology framework and analytical strategies used in the 2016 Global Burden of Disease study, the mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of CVD in the Chinese population were examined by age, sex, and year and according to 10 subcategories. Estimates were produced for all province-level administrative units of mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao.ExposuresResidence in China.Main outcomes and measuresMortality, prevalence, and DALYs of CVD.ResultsThe annual number of deaths owing to CVD increased from 2.51 million to 3.97 million between 1990 and 2016; the age-standardized mortality rate fell by 28.7%, from 431.6 per 100 000 persons in 1990 to 307.9 per 100 000 in 2016. Prevalent cases of CVD doubled since 1990, reaching nearly 94 million in 2016. The age-standardized prevalence rate of CVD overall increased significantly from 1990 to 2016 by 14.7%, as did rates for ischemic heart disease (19.1%), ischemic stroke (36.6%), cardiomyopathy and myocarditis (23.1%), and endocarditis (26.7%). Substantial reduction in the CVD burden, as measured by age-standardized DALY rate, was observed from 1990 to 2016 nationally, with a greater reduction in women (43.7%) than men (24.7%). There were marked differences in the spatial patterns of mortality, prevalence, and DALYs of CVD overall as well as its main subcategories, including ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic stroke, and ischemic stroke. The CVD burden appeared to be lower in coastal provinces with higher economic development. The between-province gap in relative burden of CVD increased from 1990 to 2016, with faster decline in economically developed provinces.Conclusions and relevanceSubstantial discrepancies in the total CVD burden and burdens of CVD subcategories have persisted between provinces in China despite a relative decrease in the CVD burden. Geographically targeted considerations are needed to tailor future strategies to enhance CVD health throughout China and in specific provinces.

Project description:Background:According to the World Health Organization, Nigeria is one of the countries with a high burden of tuberculosis (TB) worldwide. Improving the burden of TB among HIV-negative people would require comprehensive and up-to-date data to inform targeted policy actions in Nigeria. The study aimed to describe the incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and risk factors of tuberculosis in Nigeria between 1990 and 2016. Methods:This study used the most recent data from the global burden of disease study 2016. TB deaths were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model, while TB incidence, prevalence and DALYs, as well as years of life lost and years of life lived with disability were calculated in the DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Using a comparative risk assessment approach, TB burden attributable to risk factors was estimated in a spatial-temporal Gaussian Process Regression tool. Results:In 2016, the prevalence of TB among HIV-negative people was 27% (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 23-31%) in Nigeria. TB incidence rate (new and relapse cases) was 158 per 100,000 people (95% UI; 128-193), while the total number of TB mortality was 39,933 deaths (95% UI; 30,488-55,039) in 2016. Between 2000 and 2016, the age-standardised prevalence and incidence rates of TB-HIV negative decreased by 20.0 and 87.6%, respectively. The age-standardised mortality rate also dropped by 191.6% over the same period. DALYs due to TB among HIV-negative Nigerians was high but varied across the age groups. Of the risk factors studied, alcohol use accounted for the highest number of TB deaths and DALYs, followed by diabetes and smoking in 2016. Conclusion:The study shows an improving trend in TB disease burden among HIV-negative individuals in Nigeria from 1990 to 2016. Despite this progress, this study suggests that additional efforts are still needed to ensure that Nigeria is not left behind in the current global strategy to end TB disease. Reducing TB disease burden in the country will require a multipronged approach that includes increased funding, health system strengthening and improved TB surveillance, as well as preventive efforts for alcohol use, smoking and diabetes.

Project description:BackgroundNeurological disorders are now the leading source of disability globally, and ageing is increasing the burden of neurodegenerative disorders, including Parkinson's disease. We aimed to determine the global burden of Parkinson's disease between 1990 and 2016 to identify trends and to enable appropriate public health, medical, and scientific responses.MethodsThrough a systematic analysis of epidemiological studies, we estimated global, regional, and country-specific prevalence and years of life lived with disability for Parkinson's disease from 1990 to 2016. We estimated the proportion of mild, moderate, and severe Parkinson's disease on the basis of studies that used the Hoehn and Yahr scale and assigned disability weights to each level. We jointly modelled prevalence and excess mortality risk in a natural history model to derive estimates of deaths due to Parkinson's disease. Death counts were multiplied by values from the Global Burden of Disease study's standard life expectancy to compute years of life lost. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were computed as the sum of years lived with disability and years of life lost. We also analysed results based on the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility.FindingsIn 2016, 6·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·0-7·3) individuals had Parkinson's disease globally, compared with 2·5 million (2·0-3·0) in 1990. This increase was not solely due to increasing numbers of older people, because age-standardised prevalence rates increased by 21·7% (95% UI 18·1-25·3) over the same period (compared with an increase of 74·3%, 95% UI 69·2-79·6, for crude prevalence rates). Parkinson's disease caused 3·2 million (95% UI 2·6-4·0) DALYs and 211 296 deaths (95% UI 167 771-265 160) in 2016. The male-to-female ratios of age-standardised prevalence rates were similar in 2016 (1·40, 95% UI 1·36-1·43) and 1990 (1·37, 1·34-1·40). From 1990 to 2016, age-standardised prevalence, DALY rates, and death rates increased for all global burden of disease regions except for southern Latin America, eastern Europe, and Oceania. In addition, age-standardised DALY rates generally increased across the Socio-demographic Index.InterpretationOver the past generation, the global burden of Parkinson's disease has more than doubled as a result of increasing numbers of older people, with potential contributions from longer disease duration and environmental factors. Demographic and potentially other factors are poised to increase the future burden of Parkinson's disease substantially.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:Using the findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), we report the burden of primary headache disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) from 1990 to 2016. METHODS:We modelled headache disorders using DisMod-MR 2.1 Bayesian meta-regression tool to ensure consistency between prevalence, incidence, and remission. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence and disability weight (DW) of migraine and tension-type headache (TTH). We assumed primary headache disorders as non-fatal, so their YLD is equal to disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). RESULTS:Migraine and TTH were the second and twentieth leading causes of YLDs in EMR. Between 1990 and 2016, the absolute YLD numbers of migraine and TTH increased from 2.3 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.5-3.2) to 4.7 million (95%UI: 3-6.5) and from 383 thousand (95%UI: 240-562) to 816 thousand (95%UI: 516-1221), respectively. During the same period, age-standardised YLD rates of migraine and TTH in EMR increased by 0.7% and 2.5%, respectively, in comparison to a small decrease in the global rates (0.2% decrease in migraine and TTH). The bulk of burden due to headache occurred in the 30-49 year age group, with a peak at ages 35-44 years. The age-standardised YLD rates of both headache disorders were higher in women with female to male ratio of 1.69 for migraine and 1.38 for TTH. All countries of the EMR except for Somalia and Djibouti had higher age-standardised YLD rates for migraine and TTH in compare to the global rates. Libya and Saudi Arabia had the highest increase in age-standardised YLD rates of migraine and TTH, respectively. CONCLUSION:The findings of this study show that primary headache disorders are a major and a growing cause of disability in EMR. Since 1990, burden of primary headache disorders has constantly been higher in EMR compared to rest of the world, which indicates that health systems in EMR must focus further on developing and implementing preventive and management strategies to control headache.

Project description:BackgroundAcute meningitis has a high case-fatality rate and survivors can have severe lifelong disability. We aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of global meningitis burden that could help to guide introduction, continuation, and ongoing development of vaccines and treatment programmes.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2016 study estimated meningitis burden due to one of four types of cause: pneumococcal, meningococcal, Haemophilus influenzae type b, and a residual category of other causes. Cause-specific mortality estimates were generated via cause of death ensemble modelling of vital registration and verbal autopsy data that were subject to standardised data processing algorithms. Deaths were multiplied by the GBD standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost, the mortality component of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A systematic analysis of relevant publications and hospital and claims data was used to estimate meningitis incidence via a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Meningitis deaths and cases were split between causes with meta-regressions of aetiological proportions of mortality and incidence, respectively. Probabilities of long-term impairment by cause of meningitis were applied to survivors and used to estimate years of life lived with disability (YLDs). We assessed the relationship between burden metrics and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of development based on fertility, income, and education.FindingsGlobal meningitis deaths decreased by 21·0% from 1990 to 2016, from 403?012 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 319?426-458?514) to 318?400 (265?218-408?705). Incident cases globally increased from 2·50 million (95% UI 2·19-2·91) in 1990 to 2·82 million (2·46-3·31) in 2016. Meningitis mortality and incidence were closely related to SDI. The highest mortality rates and incidence rates were found in the peri-Sahelian countries that comprise the African meningitis belt, with six of the ten countries with the largest number of cases and deaths being located within this region. Haemophilus influenzae type b was the most common cause of incident meningitis in 1990, at 780?070 cases (95% UI 613?585-978?219) globally, but decreased the most (-49·1%) to become the least common cause in 2016, with 397?297 cases (291?076-533?662). Meningococcus was the leading cause of meningitis mortality in 1990 (192?833 deaths [95% UI 153?358-221?503] globally), whereas other meningitis was the leading cause for both deaths (136?423 [112?682-178?022]) and incident cases (1·25 million [1·06-1·49]) in 2016. Pneumococcus caused the largest number of YLDs (634?458 [444?787-839?749]) in 2016, owing to its more severe long-term effects on survivors. Globally in 2016, 1·48 million (1·04-1·96) YLDs were due to meningitis compared with 21·87 million (18·20-28·28) DALYs, indicating that the contribution of mortality to meningitis burden is far greater than the contribution of disabling outcomes.InterpretationMeningitis burden remains high and progress lags substantially behind that of other vaccine-preventable diseases. Particular attention should be given to developing vaccines with broader coverage against the causes of meningitis, making these vaccines affordable in the most affected countries, improving vaccine uptake, improving access to low-cost diagnostics and therapeutics, and improving support for disabled survivors. Substantial uncertainty remains around pathogenic causes and risk factors for meningitis. Ongoing, active cause-specific surveillance of meningitis is crucial to continue and to improve monitoring of meningitis burdens and trends throughout the world.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:BackgroundStroke is a leading cause of mortality and disability worldwide and the economic costs of treatment and post-stroke care are substantial. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic, comparable method of quantifying health loss by disease, age, sex, year, and location to provide information to health systems and policy makers on more than 300 causes of disease and injury, including stroke. The results presented here are the estimates of burden due to overall stroke and ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke from GBD 2016.MethodsWe report estimates and corresponding uncertainty intervals (UIs), from 1990 to 2016, for incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). DALYs were generated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Cause-specific mortality was estimated using an ensemble modelling process with vital registration and verbal autopsy data as inputs. Non-fatal estimates were generated using Bayesian meta-regression incorporating data from registries, scientific literature, administrative records, and surveys. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator generated using educational attainment, lagged distributed income, and total fertility rate, was used to group countries into quintiles.FindingsIn 2016, there were 5·5 million (95% UI 5·3 to 5·7) deaths and 116·4 million (111·4 to 121·4) DALYs due to stroke. The global age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 36·2% (-39·3 to -33·6) from 1990 to 2016, with decreases in all SDI quintiles. Over the same period, the global age-standardised DALY rate declined by 34·2% (-37·2 to -31·5), also with decreases in all SDI quintiles. There were 13·7 million (12·7 to 14·7) new stroke cases in 2016. Global age-standardised incidence declined by 8·1% (-10·7 to -5·5) from 1990 to 2016 and decreased in all SDI quintiles except the middle SDI group. There were 80·1 million (74·1 to 86·3) prevalent cases of stroke globally in 2016; 41·1 million (38·0 to 44·3) in women and 39·0 million (36·1 to 42·1) in men.InterpretationAlthough age-standardised mortality rates have decreased sharply from 1990 to 2016, the decrease in age-standardised incidence has been less steep, indicating that the burden of stroke is likely to remain high. Planned updates to future GBD iterations include generating separate estimates for subarachnoid haemorrhage and intracerebral haemorrhage, generating estimates of transient ischaemic attack, and including atrial fibrillation as a risk factor.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:BackgroundSeizures and their consequences contribute to the burden of epilepsy because they can cause health loss (premature mortality and residual disability). Data on the burden of epilepsy are needed for health-care planning and resource allocation. The aim of this study was to quantify health loss due to epilepsy by age, sex, year, and location using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.MethodsWe assessed the burden of epilepsy in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Burden was measured as deaths, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; a summary measure of health loss defined by the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] for premature mortality and years lived with disability), by age, sex, year, location, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility). Vital registrations and verbal autopsies provided information about deaths, and data on the prevalence and severity of epilepsy largely came from population representative surveys. All estimates were calculated with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).FindingsIn 2016, there were 45·9 million (95% UI 39·9-54·6) patients with all-active epilepsy (both idiopathic and secondary epilepsy globally; age-standardised prevalence 621·5 per 100 000 population; 540·1-737·0). Of these patients, 24·0 million (20·4-27·7) had active idiopathic epilepsy (prevalence 326·7 per 100 000 population; 278·4-378·1). Prevalence of active epilepsy increased with age, with peaks at 5-9 years (374·8 [280·1-490·0]) and at older than 80 years of age (545·1 [444·2-652·0]). Age-standardised prevalence of active idiopathic epilepsy was 329·3 per 100 000 population (280·3-381·2) in men and 318·9 per 100 000 population (271·1-369·4) in women, and was similar among SDI quintiles. Global age-standardised mortality rates of idiopathic epilepsy were 1·74 per 100 000 population (1·64-1·87; 1·40 per 100 000 population [1·23-1·54] for women and 2·09 per 100 000 population [1·96-2·25] for men). Age-standardised DALYs were 182·6 per 100 000 population (149·0-223·5; 163·6 per 100 000 population [130·6-204·3] for women and 201·2 per 100 000 population [166·9-241·4] for men). The higher DALY rates in men were due to higher YLL rates compared with women. Between 1990 and 2016, there was a non-significant 6·0% (-4·0 to 16·7) change in the age-standardised prevalence of idiopathic epilepsy, but a significant decrease in age-standardised mortality rates (24·5% [10·8 to 31·8]) and age-standardised DALY rates (19·4% [9·0 to 27·6]). A third of the difference in age-standardised DALY rates between low and high SDI quintile countries was due to the greater severity of epilepsy in low-income settings, and two-thirds were due to a higher YLL rate in low SDI countries.InterpretationDespite the decrease in the disease burden from 1990 to 2016, epilepsy is still an important cause of disability and mortality. Standardised collection of data on epilepsy in population representative surveys will strengthen the estimates, particularly in countries for which we currently have no or sparse data and if additional data is collected on severity, causes, and treatment. Sizeable gains in reducing the burden of epilepsy might be expected from improved access to existing treatments in low-income countries and from the development of new effective drugs worldwide.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Dataset Information

Temporal and spatial trends of ischemic heart disease burden in Chinese and subgroup populations from 1990 to 2016: socio-economical data from the 2016 global burden of disease study.

Publications

Temporal and spatial trends of ischemic heart disease burden in Chinese and subgroup populations from 1990 to 2016: socio-economical data from the 2016 global burden of disease study.

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