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Correlation between the migration scale index and the number of new confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 cases in China.

ABSTRACT: In late December 2019, patients of atypical pneumonia due to an unidentified microbial agent were reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. Subsequently, a novel coronavirus was identified as the causative pathogen which was named SARS-CoV-2. As of 12 February 2020, more than 44 000 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been confirmed in China and continue to expand. Provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China have launched first-level response to major public health emergencies one after another from 23 January 2020, which means restricting movement of people among provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. The aim of this study was to explore the correlation between the migration scale index and the number of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and to depict the effect of restricting population movement. In this study, Excel 2010 was used to demonstrate the temporal distribution at the day level and SPSS 23.0 was used to analyse the correlation between the migration scale index and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. We found that since 23 January 2020, Wuhan migration scale index has dropped significantly and since 26 January 2020, Hubei province migration scale index has dropped significantly. New confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except for Wuhan gradually increased since 24 January 2020, and showed a downward trend from 6 February 2020. New confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except for Hubei province gradually increased since 24 January 2020, and maintained at a high level from 24 January 2020 to 4 February 2020, then showed a downward trend. Wuhan migration scale index from 9 January to 22 January, 10 January to 23 January and 11 January to 24 January was correlated with the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except for Wuhan from 22 January to 4 February. Hubei province migration scale index from 10 January to 23 January and 11 January to 24 January was correlated with the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except for Hubei province from 22 January to 4 February. Our findings suggested that people who left Wuhan from 9 January to 22 January, and those who left Hubei province from 10 January to 24 January, led to the outbreak in the rest of China. The 'Wuhan lockdown' and the launching of the first-level response to this major public health emergency may have had a good effect on controlling the COVID-19 epidemic. Although new COVID-19 cases continued to be confirmed in China outside Wuhan and Hubei provinces, in our opinion, these are second-generation cases.

SUBMITTER: Chen H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7251287 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Correlation between the migration scale index and the number of new confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 cases in China.

Chen Huijie H Chen Ye Y Lian Zhiyong Z Wen Lihai L Sun Baijun B Wang Ping P Li Xinghai X Liu Qiong Q Yu Xiaoyun X Lu Ying Y Qi Ying Y Zhao Shuo S Zhang Linlin L Yi Xiaodan X Liu Fengyu F Pan Guowei G

Epidemiology and infection 20200519

In late December 2019, patients of atypical pneumonia due to an unidentified microbial agent were reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. Subsequently, a novel coronavirus was identified as the causative pathogen which was named SARS-CoV-2. As of 12 February 2020, more than 44 000 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been confirmed in China and continue to expand. Provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China have launched first-level response to major public health emergencies one a ...[more]

PMID: 32423504

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Project description:BackgroundPrevious studies on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have focused on populations with normal immunity, but lack data on immunocompromised populations.ObjectiveTo evaluate the clinical features and outcomes of COVID-19 pneumonia in kidney transplant recipients.Design, setting, and participantsA total of 10 renal transplant recipients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia were enrolled in this retrospective study. In addition, 10 of their family members diagnosed with COVID-19 pneumonia were included in the control group.InterventionImmunosuppressant reduction and low-dose methylprednisolone therapy.Outcome measurements and statistical analysisThe clinical outcomes (the severity of pneumonia, recovery rate, time of virus shedding, and length of illness) were compared with the control group by statistical analysis.Results and limitationsThe clinical symptomatic, laboratory, and radiological characteristics of COVID-19 pneumonia in the renal transplant recipients were similar to those of severe COVID-19 pneumonia in the general population. The severity of COVID-19 pneumonia was greater in the transplant recipients than in the control group (five severe/three critical cases vs one severe case). Five patients developed transient renal allograft damage. After a longer time of virus shedding (28.4 ± 9.3 vs 12.2 ± 4.6 d in the control group) and a longer course of illness (35.3 ± 8.3 vs 18.8 ± 10.5 d in the control group), nine of the 10 transplant patients recovered successfully after treatment. One patient developed acute renal graft failure and died of progressive respiratory failure.ConclusionsKidney transplant recipients had more severe COVID-19 pneumonia than the general population, but most of them recovered after a prolonged clinical course and virus shedding. Findings from this small group of cases may have important implications for the treatment of COVID-19 pneumonia in immunosuppressed populations.Patient summaryImmunosuppressed transplant recipients with coronavirus disease 2019 infection had more severe pneumonia, but most of them still achieved a good prognosis after appropriate treatment.

Project description:Background Chest CT is used in the diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and is an important complement to reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests. Purpose To investigate the diagnostic value and consistency of chest CT as compared with RT-PCR assay in COVID-19. Materials and Methods This study included 1014 patients in Wuhan, China, who underwent both chest CT and RT-PCR tests between January 6 and February 6, 2020. With use of RT-PCR as the reference standard, the performance of chest CT in the diagnosis of COVID-19 was assessed. In addition, for patients with multiple RT-PCR assays, the dynamic conversion of RT-PCR results (negative to positive, positive to negative) was analyzed as compared with serial chest CT scans for those with a time interval between RT-PCR tests of 4 days or more. Results Of the 1014 patients, 601 of 1014 (59%) had positive RT-PCR results and 888 of 1014 (88%) had positive chest CT scans. The sensitivity of chest CT in suggesting COVID-19 was 97% (95% confidence interval: 95%, 98%; 580 of 601 patients) based on positive RT-PCR results. In the 413 patients with negative RT-PCR results, 308 of 413 (75%) had positive chest CT findings. Of those 308 patients, 48% (103 of 308) were considered as highly likely cases and 33% (103 of 308) as probable cases. At analysis of serial RT-PCR assays and CT scans, the mean interval between the initial negative to positive RT-PCR results was 5.1 days ± 1.5; the mean interval between initial positive to subsequent negative RT-PCR results was 6.9 days ± 2.3. Of the 1014 patients, 60% (34 of 57) to 93% (14 of 15) had initial positive CT scans consistent with COVID-19 before (or parallel to) the initial positive RT-PCR results. Twenty-four of 57 patients (42%) showed improvement on follow-up chest CT scans before the RT-PCR results turned negative. Conclusion Chest CT has a high sensitivity for diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Chest CT may be considered as a primary tool for the current COVID-19 detection in epidemic areas. © RSNA, 2020 Online supplemental material is available for this article. A translation of this abstract in Farsi is available in the supplement. ترجمه چکیده این مقاله به فارسی، در ضمیمه موجود است.

Project description:Background:A novel human coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was identified in China in December 2019. There is limited support for many of its key epidemiologic features, including the incubation period for clinical disease (coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]), which has important implications for surveillance and control activities. Objective:To estimate the length of the incubation period of COVID-19 and describe its public health implications. Design:Pooled analysis of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported between 4 January 2020 and 24 February 2020. Setting:News reports and press releases from 50 provinces, regions, and countries outside Wuhan, Hubei province, China. Participants:Persons with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection outside Hubei province, China. Measurements:Patient demographic characteristics and dates and times of possible exposure, symptom onset, fever onset, and hospitalization. Results:There were 181 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure and symptom onset windows to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine. Limitation:Publicly reported cases may overrepresent severe cases, the incubation period for which may differ from that of mild cases. Conclusion:This work provides additional evidence for a median incubation period for COVID-19 of approximately 5 days, similar to SARS. Our results support current proposals for the length of quarantine or active monitoring of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2, although longer monitoring periods might be justified in extreme cases. Primary Funding Source:U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of General Medical Sciences, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.

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Correlation between the migration scale index and the number of new confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 cases in China.

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Correlation between the migration scale index and the number of new confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 cases in China.

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