Dataset Information

Limitations of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 metrics: a simulation-based comparison of cross-sectional and longitudinal metrics for the HIV care continuum.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 and other cross-sectional metrics can lead to potentially counterintuitive conclusions when used to evaluate health systems' performance. This study demonstrates how time and population dynamics impact UNAIDS 90-90-90 metrics in comparison with a longitudinal analogue.

Design

A simplified simulation representing a hypothetical population was used to estimate and compare inference from UNAIDS 90-90-90 metrics and longitudinal metrics based on Kaplan-Meier-estimated 2-year probability of transition between stages.

Methods

We simulated a large cohort over 15 years. Everyone started out at risk for HIV, and then transitioned through the HIV care continuum based on fixed daily probabilities of acquiring HIV, learning status, entering care, initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART), and becoming virally suppressed, or dying. We varied the probability of ART initiation over three five-year periods (low, high, and low). We repeated the simulation with an increased probability of death.

Results

The cross-sectional probability of being on ART among persons who were diagnosed responded relatively slowly to changes in the rate of ART initiation. Increases in ART initiation rates caused apparent declines in the cross-sectional probability of being virally suppressed among persons who had initiated ART, despite no changes in the rate of viral suppression. In some cases, higher mortality resulted in the cross-sectional metrics implying improved healthcare system performance. The longitudinal continuum was robust to these issues.

Conclusion

The UNAIDS 90-90-90 care continuum may lead to incorrect inference when used to evaluate health systems performance. We recommend that evaluation of HIV care delivery include longitudinal care continuum metrics wherever possible.

SUBMITTER: Haber NA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7253182 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundIn line with the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 target, Norway aims for at least 90% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) to know their HIV-status. We produced current estimates of the number of PLHIV and undiagnosed population in Norway, overall and for six key subpopulations: Norwegian-born men who have sex with men (MSM), migrant MSM, Norwegian-born heterosexuals, migrant Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)-born heterosexuals, migrant non-SSA-born heterosexuals and people who inject drugs.MethodsWe used the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) HIV Modelling Tool on Norwegian HIV surveillance data through 2018 to estimate incidence, time from infection to diagnosis, PLHIV, and the number and proportion undiagnosed. As surveillance data on CD4 count at diagnosis were not collected in Norway, we ran two models; using default model CD4 assumptions, or a proxy for CD4 distribution based on Danish national surveillance data. We also generated alternative overall PLHIV estimates using the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model, to compare with those obtained from the ECDC tool.ResultsEstimates of the overall number of PLHIV in 2018 using different modelling approaches aligned at approximately 5000. In both ECDC models, the overall number undiagnosed decreased continuously from 2008. The proportion undiagnosed in 2018 was lower using default model CD4 assumptions (7.1% [95%CI: 5.3-8.9%]), than the Danish CD4 proxy (10.2% [8.3-12.1%]). This difference was driven by results for heterosexual migrants. Estimates for Norwegian-born MSM, migrant MSM and Norwegian-born heterosexuals were similar in both models. In these three subpopulations, incidence in 2018 was <?30 new infections, and the number undiagnosed had decreased in recent years. Norwegian-born MSM had the lowest estimated number of undiagnosed infections (45 [30-75], using default CD4 assumptions) and undiagnosed fraction (3.6% [2.4-5.7%], using default CD4 assumptions) in 2018.ConclusionsResults allow cautious confidence in concluding that Norway has achieved the first UNAIDS 90-90-90 target, and clearly highlight the success of prevention strategies among MSM. Estimates for subpopulations strongly influenced by migration remain less clear, and future modelling should appropriately account for all-cause mortality and out-migration, and adjust for time of in-migration.

Project description:ABSTRACT Background: HIV/AIDS programmes and organisations around the world use routinely updated estimates of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets to track progress and prioritise further programme implementation. Any bias in these estimates has the potential to mislead organisations on where gaps exist in HIV testing and treatment programmes. Objective: To measure the extent of undisclosed HIV testing history and its impact on estimating the proportion of people living with HIV (PLHIV) who know their HIV status (the ‘first 90’ of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets). Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using population-based HIV serological surveillance conducted between 2010 and 2016 and linked, directly observed HIV testing records in Kisesa, Tanzania. Generalised estimating equations logistic regression models were used to detect associations with non-disclosure of HIV testing history adjusting for demographic, behavioural, and clinical characteristics. We compared estimates of the ‘first 90’ using self-reported survey data only and augmented estimates using information from linked records to quantify the absolute and relative impact of undisclosed HIV testing history. Results: Numbers of participants in each of the survey rounds ranged from 7171 to 7981 with an average HIV prevalence of 6.9%. Up to 33% of those who tested HIV-positive and 34% of those who tested HIV-negative did not disclose their HIV testing history. The proportion of PLHIV who reported knowing their status increased from 34% in 2010 to 65% in 2016. Augmented estimates including information from directly observed testing history resulted in an absolute impact of 6.7 percentage points and relative impact of 12.4%. Conclusions: In this population, self-reported testing history in population-based HIV serological surveys under-estimated the percentage of HIV positives that are diagnosed by a relative factor of 12%. Research should be employed in other surveillance systems that benefit from linked data to investigate how bias may vary across settings.

Project description:BackgroundThe Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Fast-Track initiative seeks to eliminate AIDS as a health threat by 2030, with its focus on UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. Effective policies and programs, if scaled nationally, have the potential to generate a greater impact on HIV control, yet a synthesis of successful HIV policies/programs aligned to the targets is currently unavailable. To fill this gap, we conducted a systematic review to evaluate successful HIV policies and programs to direct future interventions.MethodsFor the period 2007-2018, we searched 8 databases and classified eligible studies by country income level, UNAIDS targets, intervention type, and reported outcomes. Study outcomes were classified as per UNAIDS targets; proportionally: 90% target 1, 81% target 2, and 73% target 3.ResultsWe retrieved 5201 citations and a final set of eight studies on policies. Break up by income: three (38%) from high income, one (12%) from middle income and four (50%) from low income. Break up by outcomes reported: 36% (4/11) focused on HIV testing, 46% (5/11) on antiretroviral therapy initiation, and 18% (2/11) on viral suppression. Across studies, UNAIDS targets were met in high-income countries, where policies and guidelines were adhered to, whereas in low and middle-income countries, non-adherence led to failure to reach the targets. Targets were also met when country infrastructure supported a targeted program and stakeholders were actively engaged.ConclusionsFrom the studies identified, we deduced a clear, positive correlation between implementation of policies and programs that resulted in an increase in patient awareness and an increase in partner notification with services that encouraged them, and together these resulted in increasing testing rates, and deployment of linkage/retention programs that improved retention in care. An analysis of these studies also suggests that policies, combined with the scale-up incentives, are needed to change the status quo. Incentives to improve the targets must exist; performance incentives at the health care worker level and country level incentives that could transform the nature of care. Given the complexity in reporting of targets, a one size fits all model is not a feasible option. However, the policies created a strong framework to shape future interventions.

Project description:BackgroundNational responses will need to be markedly accelerated to achieve the ambitious target of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). This target aims for 90% of HIV-positive individuals to be aware of their status, for 90% of those aware to receive antiretroviral therapy (ART), and for 90% of those on treatment to have a suppressed viral load by 2020, with each individual target reaching 95% by 2030. We aimed to estimate the impact of various treatment-as-prevention scenarios in Côte d'Ivoire, one of the countries with the highest HIV incidence in West Africa, with unmet HIV prevention and treatment needs, and where key populations are important to the broader HIV epidemic.Methods and findingsAn age-stratified dynamic model was developed and calibrated to epidemiological and programmatic data using a Bayesian framework. The model represents sexual and vertical HIV transmission in the general population, female sex workers (FSW), and men who have sex with men (MSM). We estimated the impact of scaling up interventions to reach the UNAIDS targets, as well as the impact of 8 other scenarios, on HIV transmission in adults and children, compared to our baseline scenario that maintains 2015 rates of testing, ART initiation, ART discontinuation, treatment failure, and levels of condom use. In 2015, we estimated that 52% (95% credible intervals: 46%-58%) of HIV-positive individuals were aware of their status, 72% (57%-82%) of those aware were on ART, and 77% (74%-79%) of those on ART were virologically suppressed. Reaching the UNAIDS targets on time would avert 50% (42%-60%) of new HIV infections over 2015-2030 compared to 30% (25%-36%) if the 90-90-90 target is reached in 2025. Attaining the UNAIDS targets in FSW, their clients, and MSM (but not in the rest of the population) would avert a similar fraction of new infections (30%; 21%-39%). A 25-percentage-point drop in condom use from the 2015 levels among FSW and MSM would reduce the impact of reaching the UNAIDS targets, with 38% (26%-51%) of infections averted. The study's main limitation is that homogenous spatial coverage of interventions was assumed, and future lines of inquiry should examine how geographical prioritization could affect HIV transmission.ConclusionsMaximizing the impact of the UNAIDS targets will require rapid scale-up of interventions, particularly testing, ART initiation, and limiting ART discontinuation. Reaching clients of FSW, as well as key populations, can efficiently reduce transmission. Sustaining the high condom-use levels among key populations should remain an important prevention pillar.

Project description:BackgroundReaching the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets to end the HIV epidemic relies on effective interventions that engage untested HIV+ individuals and retain them in care. Evidence on community-based interventions through the lens of the targets has not yet been synthesized, reflecting a knowledge gap. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to shed light on successful community-based interventions that have been effective in contributing, directly or indirectly, towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets: knowledge of HIV status, linkage to care/on treatment, and viral suppression. Linkage to care was also included in this review due to the limitations of studies.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the period 2007-2018. Eleven databases were searched to identify community-based interventions designed to improve knowledge of HIV status (in particular HIV testing), linkage to care/on treatment, and/or viral suppression. Eligible studies were classified by intervention, population, country income level, outcomes and success. Success was defined as interventions demonstrating statistical significance between intervention and control group or that reached any target by proportion; 90% testing, 81% linked to care/on treatment and 73% viral suppression.ResultsOf 82 eligible studies, 51.2% (42/82) reported on HIV testing (first 90), 20.7% (17/82) on linkage to care/ on treatment (second 90), and 45.1% (37/82) on viral suppression (third 90). In all, 67.1% (55/82) of studies reported success; 21 studies on the first 90, 9 towards linkage to care/on treatment, and 25 towards the third. By strategies, 36.6% deployed community workers/peers, 22% used combined test and treat strategies, 12.2% used educational methods, 8.5% used mobile testing, 7.3% used campaigns and 13.4% used technology. For HIV testing/linkage, combined test/treat interventions were often used, for viral suppression, educational interventions and technologies were commonly deployed. Our pooled analysis suggested that deployment of community health care workers/peer workers significantly improved viral suppression (pooled OR: 1.40 95% CI 1.06-1.86). Of the studies published after 2014, 50.0% reported metrics aligned with UNAIDS targets.ConclusionsData on linkage to care/on treatment (second target) remained weak, because many studies reported successes on the first and third targets. Stratification by targets and country income levels is informative and guides adaptation of successful interventions in comparable settings. Consistent reporting of clear metrics aligned with UNAIDS targets will aid in synergy of study data with programmatic data that will help reportage. Exploration of innovative interventions, for engagement and linkage and deployment of community/ peer workers is strongly encouraged.

Project description:The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed an ambitious strategy to end the AIDS epidemic. After eight years of antiretroviral therapy (ART) program we assessed progress towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets in Mbongolwane and Eshowe, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.We conducted a cross-sectional household-based community survey using a two-stage stratified cluster probability sampling strategy. Persons aged 15-59 years were eligible. We used face-to-face interviewer-administered questionnaires to collect information on history of HIV testing and care. Rapid HIV testing was performed on site and venous blood specimens collected from HIV-positive participants for antiretroviral drug presence test, CD4 count and viral load. At the time of the survey the CD4 threshold for ART initiation was 350 cells/?L. We calculated progression towards the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets by estimating three proportions: HIV positive individuals who knew their status (first 90), those diagnosed who were on ART (second 90), and those on ART who were virally suppressed (third 90).We included 5649/6688 (84.5%) individuals. Median age was 26 years (IQR: 19-40), 62.3% were women. HIV prevalence was 25.2% (95% CI: 23.6-26.9): 30.9% (95% CI: 29.0-32.9) in women; 15.9% (95% CI: 14.0-18.0) in men. Overall progress towards the 90-90-90 targets was as follows: 76.4% (95% CI: 74.1-78.6) knew their status, 69.9% (95% CI: 67.0-72.7) of those who knew their status were on ART and 93.1% (95% CI: 91.0-94.8) of those on ART were virally suppressed. By sex, progress towards the 90-90-90 targets was: 79%-71%-93% among women; and 68%-68%-92% among men (p-values of women and men comparisons were <?0.001, 0.443 and 0.584 respectively). By age, progress was: 83%-75%-95% among individuals aged 30-59 years and 64%-58%-89% among those aged 15-29 years (p-values of age groups comparisons were <?0.001, <?0.001 and 0.011 respectively).In this context of high HIV prevalence, significant progress has been achieved with regards to reaching the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. The third 90, viral suppression in people on ART, was achieved among women and men. However, gaps persist in HIV diagnosis and ART coverage particularly in men and individuals younger than 30 years. Achieving 90-90-90 is feasible but requires additional investment to reach youth and men.