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A Novel Pre-treatment Model Predicting Risk of Developing Refractoriness to Transarterial Chemoembolization in Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

ABSTRACT: Background and aim: Refractoriness to transarterial chemoembolization is common during the therapeutic process of hepatocellular carcinoma, which is an intractable issue and may compromise the prognosis. We aim to establish a pre-treatment model to identify patients with high risks of refractoriness. Methods: From 2010 to 2016, 824 treatment-naive patients who had initially underwent at least two sessions of transarterial chemoembolization in Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University were retrospectively enrolled. These patients were randomly allocated into a training cohort and a validation cohort. The pre-treatment scoring model was established based on the clinical and radiological variables using logistic regression and nomogram. The discrimination and calibration of the model were also evaluated. Results: Logistic regression identified vascularization pattern, ALBI grade, serum alpha-fetoprotein level, serum ?-glutamyl transpeptidase level and major tumor size as the key parameters related to refractoriness. The p-TACE model was established using these variables (risk score range: 0-19.5). Patients were divided into six risk subgroups based on their scores (<4, ?4, ?7, ?10, ?13, ?16). The discriminative ability, as determined by the area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.784 (95% confidence interval: 0.741-0.827) in the training cohort and 0.743 (95% confidence interval: 0.696-0.789) in the validation cohort. Moreover, satisfactory calibration was confirmed by Hosmer-Lemeshow test with P values of 0.767 and 0.913 in the training cohort and validation cohort. Conclusions: This study presents a pre-treatment model to identify patients with high risks of refractoriness after transarterial chemoembolization and shed light on clinical decision making.

SUBMITTER: Hu K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7255373 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Novel Pre-treatment Model Predicting Risk of Developing Refractoriness to Transarterial Chemoembolization in Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Hu Keshu K Lu Shenxin S Li Miao M Zhang Feng F Tang Bei B Yuan Jia J Shan Yan Y Xu Pengju P Chen Rongxin R Ren Zhenggang Z Yin Xin X

Journal of Cancer 20200518 15

<b>Background and aim</b>: Refractoriness to transarterial chemoembolization is common during the therapeutic process of hepatocellular carcinoma, which is an intractable issue and may compromise the prognosis. We aim to establish a pre-treatment model to identify patients with high risks of refractoriness. <b>Methods</b>: From 2010 to 2016, 824 treatment-naive patients who had initially underwent at least two sessions of transarterial chemoembolization in Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University we ...[more]

PMID: 32489476

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Project description:BackgroundThe efficacy of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) combined with endoscopic therapy for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma with esophagogastric varices remains unclear.MethodsThe study has been registered on ClinicalTrials.gov with the number NCT05017922 (https://register.clinicaltrials.gov). Eligible patients were divided into combined group (received TACE plus endoscopic therapy) and control group (only received TACE). The occurrence of death and bleeding episodes during the follow-up was recorded. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to compare outcomes between the two groups. Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine independent predictors for the survival.ResultsEighty-nine patients were included, 42 in the combined group, others in the control group. During the follow-up, 51 patients died, the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year survival rates were 64.9%, 45.5%, and 34.5%. The cumulative survival was significantly higher in the combined group than in the control group (p = 0.027); the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year survival rates were 75.5%, 55.9%, 43.8% and 55.0%, 35.9%, 26.6%, respectively. Forty-four patients experienced bleeding, the bleeding rate was significantly higher in the control group than in the combined group (77.4% vs. 56.8%, p = 0.016). Multivariate analysis showed that treatment, hemoglobin, portal vein tumor thrombosis, and aspartate aminotransferase were independent predictors for overall survival; the first three factors were also independent predictors for bleeding-free survival. Patients who received primary prophylaxis had longer overall survival (p = 0.042) and bleeding-free survival (p = 0.029) than those who received secondary prophylaxis.ConclusionsTACE combined with endoscopic therapy significantly improved survival and reduced bleeding rates in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma with esophagogastric varices patients. Portal vein tumor thrombosis was a strong negative prognostic factor for both overall survival and bleeding-free survival. Primary prophylaxis improved survival benefits compared with secondary prophylaxis.

Dataset Information

A Novel Pre-treatment Model Predicting Risk of Developing Refractoriness to Transarterial Chemoembolization in Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Publications

A Novel Pre-treatment Model Predicting Risk of Developing Refractoriness to Transarterial Chemoembolization in Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

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