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Estimation of reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in typical countries and epidemic trends under different prevention and control scenarios.

ABSTRACT: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a life-threatening pandemic. The epidemic trends in different countries vary considerably due to different policy-making and resources mobilization. We calculated basic reproduction number (R0) and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproductive number (Rt) of COVID-19 by using the maximum likelihood method and the sequential Bayesian method, respectively. European and North American countries possessed higher R0 and unsteady Rt fluctuations, whereas some heavily affected Asian countries showed relatively low R0 and declining Rt now. The numbers of patients in Africa and Latin America are still low, but the potential risk of huge outbreaks cannot be ignored. Three scenarios were then simulated, generating distinct outcomes by using SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and removed) model. First, evidence-based prompt responses yield lower transmission rate followed by decreasing Rt. Second, implementation of effective control policies at a relatively late stage, in spite of huge casualties at early phase, can still achieve containment and mitigation. Third, wisely taking advantage of the time-window for developing countries in Africa and Latin America to adopt adequate measures can save more people's life. Our mathematical modeling provides evidence for international communities to develop sound design of containment and mitigation policies for COVID-19.

SUBMITTER: Xu C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7255828 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimation of reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in typical countries and epidemic trends under different prevention and control scenarios.

Xu Chen C Dong Yinqiao Y Yu Xiaoyue X Wang Huwen H Tsamlag Lhakpa L Zhang Shuxian S Chang Ruijie R Wang Zezhou Z Yu Yuelin Y Long Rusi R Wang Ying Y Xu Gang G Shen Tian T Wang Suping S Zhang Xinxin X Wang Hui H Cai Yong Y

Frontiers of medicine 20200528 5

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a life-threatening pandemic. The epidemic trends in different countries vary considerably due to different policy-making and resources mobilization. We calculated basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>) and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproductive number (R<sub>t</sub>) of COVID-19 by using the maximum likelihood method and the sequential Bayesian method, respectively. European and North American countries possessed higher R<sub ...[more]

PMID: 32468343

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Project description:BackgroundDespite large-scale vaccination programmes, pertussis has remained endemic in all European countries and has been on the rise in many countries in the last decade. One of the reasons that have been discussed for the failure of vaccination to eliminate the disease is continued circulation of the pathogen Bordetella pertussis by mostly asymptomatic and mild infections in adolescents and adults. To understand the impact of asymptomatic and undiagnosed infection on the transmission dynamics of pertussis we analysed serological data from five European countries in combination with information about social contact patterns from five of those countries to estimate incidence and reproduction numbers.Methods and findingsWe compared two different methods for estimating incidence from individual data on IgG pertussis toxin (PT) titres. One method combines the cross-sectional surveys of titres with longitudinal information about the distribution of amplitude and decay rate of titres in a back-calculation approach. The second method uses age-dependent contact matrices and cross-sectional surveys of IgG PT titres to estimate a next generation matrix for pertussis transmission among age groups. The next generation approach allows for computation of basic reproduction numbers for five European countries. Our main findings are that the seroincidence of infections as estimated with the first method in all countries lies between 1% and 6% per annum with a peak in the adolescent age groups and a second lower peak in young adults. The incidence of infections as estimated by the second method lies slightly lower with ranges between 1% and 4% per annum. There is a remarkably good agreement of the results obtained with the two methods. The basic reproduction numbers are similar across countries at around 5.5.ConclusionsVaccination with currently used vaccines cannot prevent continued circulation and reinfection with pertussis, but has shifted the bulk of infections to adolescents and adults. If a vaccine conferring lifelong protection against clinical and subclinical infection were available pertussis could be eliminated. Currently, continuing circulation of the pathogen at a subclinical level provides a refuge for the pathogen in which it can evolve and adjust to infect vaccinated populations. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Dataset Information

Estimation of reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in typical countries and epidemic trends under different prevention and control scenarios.

Publications

Estimation of reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in typical countries and epidemic trends under different prevention and control scenarios.

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