Dataset Information

Using Reports of Symptoms and Diagnoses on Social Media to Predict COVID-19 Case Counts in Mainland China: Observational Infoveillance Study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has affected more than 200 countries and territories worldwide. This disease poses an extraordinary challenge for public health systems because screening and surveillance capacity is often severely limited, especially during the beginning of the outbreak; this can fuel the outbreak, as many patients can unknowingly infect other people. OBJECTIVE:The aim of this study was to collect and analyze posts related to COVID-19 on Weibo, a popular Twitter-like social media site in China. To our knowledge, this infoveillance study employs the largest, most comprehensive, and most fine-grained social media data to date to predict COVID-19 case counts in mainland China. METHODS:We built a Weibo user pool of 250 million people, approximately half the entire monthly active Weibo user population. Using a comprehensive list of 167 keywords, we retrieved and analyzed around 15 million COVID-19-related posts from our user pool from November 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020. We developed a machine learning classifier to identify "sick posts," in which users report their own or other people's symptoms and diagnoses related to COVID-19. Using officially reported case counts as the outcome, we then estimated the Granger causality of sick posts and other COVID-19 posts on daily case counts. For a subset of geotagged posts (3.10% of all retrieved posts), we also ran separate predictive models for Hubei province, the epicenter of the initial outbreak, and the rest of mainland China. RESULTS:We found that reports of symptoms and diagnosis of COVID-19 significantly predicted daily case counts up to 14 days ahead of official statistics, whereas other COVID-19 posts did not have similar predictive power. For the subset of geotagged posts, we found that the predictive pattern held true for both Hubei province and the rest of mainland China regardless of the unequal distribution of health care resources and the outbreak timeline. CONCLUSIONS:Public social media data can be usefully harnessed to predict infection cases and inform timely responses. Researchers and disease control agencies should pay close attention to the social media infosphere regarding COVID-19. In addition to monitoring overall search and posting activities, leveraging machine learning approaches and theoretical understanding of information sharing behaviors is a promising approach to identify true disease signals and improve the effectiveness of infoveillance.

SUBMITTER: Shen C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7257484 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Using Reports of Symptoms and Diagnoses on Social Media to Predict COVID-19 Case Counts in Mainland China: Observational Infoveillance Study.

Shen Cuihua C Chen Anfan A Luo Chen C Zhang Jingwen J Feng Bo B Liao Wang W

Journal of medical Internet research 20200528 5

<h4>Background</h4>Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has affected more than 200 countries and territories worldwide. This disease poses an extraordinary challenge for public health systems because screening and surveillance capacity is often severely limited, especially during the beginning of the outbreak; this can fuel the outbreak, as many patients can unknowingly infect other people.<h4>Objective</h4>The aim of this study was to collect and analyze posts related to COVID-19 on Weibo, a popular ...[more]

PMID: 32452804

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Project description:BackgroundFor an emergent pandemic, such as COVID-19, the statistics of symptoms based on hospital data may be biased or delayed due to the high proportion of asymptomatic or mild-symptom infections that are not recorded in hospitals. Meanwhile, the difficulty in accessing large-scale clinical data also limits many researchers from conducting timely research.ObjectiveGiven the wide coverage and promptness of social media, this study aimed to present an efficient workflow to track and visualize the dynamic characteristics and co-occurrence of symptoms for the COVID-19 pandemic from large-scale and long-term social media data.MethodsThis retrospective study included 471,553,966 COVID-19-related tweets from February 1, 2020, to April 30, 2022. We curated a hierarchical symptom lexicon for social media containing 10 affected organs/systems, 257 symptoms, and 1808 synonyms. The dynamic characteristics of COVID-19 symptoms over time were analyzed from the perspectives of weekly new cases, overall distribution, and temporal prevalence of reported symptoms. The symptom evolutions between virus strains (Delta and Omicron) were investigated by comparing the symptom prevalence during their dominant periods. A co-occurrence symptom network was developed and visualized to investigate inner relationships among symptoms and affected body systems.ResultsThis study identified 201 COVID-19 symptoms and grouped them into 10 affected body systems. There was a significant correlation between the weekly quantity of self-reported symptoms and new COVID-19 infections (Pearson correlation coefficient=0.8528; P<.001). We also observed a 1-week leading trend (Pearson correlation coefficient=0.8802; P<.001) between them. The frequency of symptoms showed dynamic changes as the pandemic progressed, from typical respiratory symptoms in the early stage to more musculoskeletal and nervous symptoms in the later stages. We identified the difference in symptoms between the Delta and Omicron periods. There were fewer severe symptoms (coma and dyspnea), more flu-like symptoms (throat pain and nasal congestion), and fewer typical COVID symptoms (anosmia and taste altered) in the Omicron period than in the Delta period (all P<.001). Network analysis revealed co-occurrences among symptoms and systems corresponding to specific disease progressions, including palpitations (cardiovascular) and dyspnea (respiratory), and alopecia (musculoskeletal) and impotence (reproductive).ConclusionsThis study identified more and milder COVID-19 symptoms than clinical research and characterized the dynamic symptom evolution based on 400 million tweets over 27 months. The symptom network revealed potential comorbidity risk and prognostic disease progression. These findings demonstrate that the cooperation of social media and a well-designed workflow can depict a holistic picture of pandemic symptoms to complement clinical studies.

Project description:BackgroundNews media coverage of antimask protests, COVID-19 conspiracies, and pandemic politicization has overemphasized extreme views but has done little to represent views of the general public. Investigating the public's response to various pandemic restrictions can provide a more balanced assessment of current views, allowing policy makers to craft better public health messages in anticipation of poor reactions to controversial restrictions.ObjectiveUsing data from social media, this infoveillance study aims to understand the changes in public opinion associated with the implementation of COVID-19 restrictions (eg, business and school closures, regional lockdown differences, and additional public health restrictions, such as social distancing and masking).MethodsCOVID-19-related tweets in Ontario (n=1,150,362) were collected based on keywords between March 12 and October 31, 2020. Sentiment scores were calculated using the VADER (Valence Aware Dictionary and Sentiment Reasoner) algorithm for each tweet to represent its negative to positive emotion. Public health restrictions were identified using government and news media websites. Dynamic regression models with autoregressive integrated moving average errors were used to examine the association between public health restrictions and changes in public opinion over time (ie, collective attention, aggregate positive sentiment, and level of disagreement), controlling for the effects of confounders (ie, daily COVID-19 case counts, holidays, and COVID-19-related official updates).ResultsIn addition to expected direct effects (eg, business closures led to decreased positive sentiment and increased disagreements), the impact of restrictions on public opinion was contextually driven. For example, the negative sentiment associated with business closures was reduced with higher COVID-19 case counts. While school closures and other restrictions (eg, masking, social distancing, and travel restrictions) generated increased collective attention, they did not have an effect on aggregate sentiment or the level of disagreement (ie, sentiment polarization). Partial (ie, region-targeted) lockdowns were associated with better public response (ie, higher number of tweets with net positive sentiment and lower levels of disagreement) compared to province-wide lockdowns.ConclusionsOur study demonstrates the feasibility of a rapid and flexible method of evaluating the public response to pandemic restrictions using near real-time social media data. This information can help public health practitioners and policy makers anticipate public response to future pandemic restrictions and ensure adequate resources are dedicated to addressing increases in negative sentiment and levels of disagreement in the face of scientifically informed, but controversial, restrictions.

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Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic and its corresponding preventive and control measures have increased the mental burden on the public. Understanding and tracking changes in public mental status can facilitate optimizing public mental health intervention and control strategies.ObjectiveThis study aimed to build a social media-based pipeline that tracks public mental changes and use it to understand public mental health status regarding the pandemic.MethodsThis study used COVID-19-related tweets posted from February 2020 to April 2022. The tweets were downloaded using unique identifiers through the Twitter application programming interface. We created a lexicon of 4 mental health problems (depression, anxiety, insomnia, and addiction) to identify mental health-related tweets and developed a dictionary for identifying health care workers. We analyzed temporal and geographic distributions of public mental health status during the pandemic and further compared distributions among health care workers versus the general public, supplemented by topic modeling on their underlying foci. Finally, we used interrupted time series analysis to examine the statewide impact of a lockdown policy on public mental health in 12 states.ResultsWe extracted 4,213,005 tweets related to mental health and COVID-19 from 2,316,817 users. Of these tweets, 2,161,357 (51.3%) were related to "depression," whereas 1,923,635 (45.66%), 225,205 (5.35%), and 150,006 (3.56%) were related to "anxiety," "insomnia," and "addiction," respectively. Compared to the general public, health care workers had higher risks of all 4 types of problems (all P<.001), and they were more concerned about clinical topics than everyday issues (eg, "students' pressure," "panic buying," and "fuel problems") than the general public. Finally, the lockdown policy had significant associations with public mental health in 4 out of the 12 states we studied, among which Pennsylvania showed a positive association, whereas Michigan, North Carolina, and Ohio showed the opposite (all P<.05).ConclusionsThe impact of COVID-19 and the corresponding control measures on the public's mental status is dynamic and shows variability among different cohorts regarding disease types, occupations, and regional groups. Health agencies and policy makers should primarily focus on depression (reported by 51.3% of the tweets) and insomnia (which has had an ever-increasing trend since the beginning of the pandemic), especially among health care workers. Our pipeline timely tracks and analyzes public mental health changes, especially when primary studies and large-scale surveys are difficult to conduct.

Dataset Information

Using Reports of Symptoms and Diagnoses on Social Media to Predict COVID-19 Case Counts in Mainland China: Observational Infoveillance Study.

Publications

Using Reports of Symptoms and Diagnoses on Social Media to Predict COVID-19 Case Counts in Mainland China: Observational Infoveillance Study.

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