Subnational mapping of under-5 and neonatal mortality trends in India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2000-17.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: India State-Level Disease Burden Initiative Child Mortality Collaborators
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7262604 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Subnational mapping of under-5 and neonatal mortality trends in India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2000-17.
Lancet (London, England) 20200512 10237
<h4>Background</h4>India has made substantial progress in improving child survival over the past few decades, but a comprehensive understanding of child mortality trends at disaggregated geographical levels is not available. We present a detailed analysis of subnational trends of child mortality to inform efforts aimed at meeting the India National Health Policy (NHP) and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets for child mortality.<h4>Methods</h4>We assessed the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundPlasmodium vivax exacts a significant toll on health worldwide, yet few efforts to date have quantified the extent and temporal trends of its global distribution. Given the challenges associated with the proper diagnosis and treatment of P vivax, national malaria programmes-particularly those pursuing malaria elimination strategies-require up to date assessments of P vivax endemicity and disease impact. This study presents the first global maps of P vivax clinical burden from 2000 to 2017.MethodsIn this spatial and temporal modelling study, we adjusted routine malariometric surveillance data for known biases and used socioeconomic indicators to generate time series of the clinical burden of P vivax. These data informed Bayesian geospatial models, which produced fine-scale predictions of P vivax clinical incidence and infection prevalence over time. Within sub-Saharan Africa, where routine surveillance for P vivax is not standard practice, we combined predicted surfaces of Plasmodium falciparum with country-specific ratios of P vivax to P falciparum. These results were combined with surveillance-based outputs outside of Africa to generate global maps.FindingsWe present the first high-resolution maps of P vivax burden. These results are combined with those for P falciparum (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The burden of P vivax malaria decreased by 41·6%, from 24·5 million cases (95% uncertainty interval 22·5-27·0) in 2000 to 14·3 million cases (13·7-15·0) in 2017. The Americas had a reduction of 56·8% (47·6-67·0) in total cases since 2000, while South-East Asia recorded declines of 50·5% (50·3-50·6) and the Western Pacific regions recorded declines of 51·3% (48·0-55·4). Europe achieved zero P vivax cases during the study period. Nonetheless, rates of decline have stalled in the past five years for many countries, with particular increases noted in regions affected by political and economic instability.InterpretationOur study highlights important spatial and temporal patterns in the clinical burden and prevalence of P vivax. Amid substantial progress worldwide, plateauing gains and areas of increased burden signal the potential for challenges that are greater than expected on the road to malaria elimination. These results support global monitoring systems and can inform the optimisation of diagnosis and treatment where P vivax has most impact.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Wellcome Trust.
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Project description:The under-5 mortality rate is a commonly used indicator of population health and socioeconomic status worldwide. However, as in most low- and middle-income countries settings, deaths among children under-5 and in any age group in Ethiopia remain underreported and fragmented. We aimed to systematically estimate neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality trends, identify underlying causes, and make subnational (regional and chartered cities) comparisons between 1990 and 2019. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019) to estimate three key under-5 mortality indicators-the probability of death between the date of birth and 28 days (neonatal mortality rate, NMR), the date of birth and 1 year (infant mortality rate, IMR), and the date of birth and 5 years (under-5 mortality rate, U5MR). The causes of death by age groups, sex, and year were estimated using Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm). Specifically, this involved a multi-stage process that includes a non-linear mixed-effects model, source bias correction, spatiotemporal smoothing, and a Gaussian process regression to synthesise mortality estimates by age, sex, location, and year. In 2019, an estimated 190,173 (95% uncertainty interval 149,789-242,575) under-5 deaths occurred in Ethiopia. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of under-5 deaths in 2019 were within the first year of life, and over half (52%) in the first 28 days. The overall U5MR, IMR, and NMR in the country were estimated to be 52.4 (44.7-62.4), 41.5 (35.2-50.0), and 26.6 (22.6-31.5) deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively, with substantial variations between administrative regions. Over three-quarters of under-5 deaths in 2019 were due to five leading causes, namely neonatal disorders (40.7%), diarrhoeal diseases (13.2%), lower respiratory infections (10.3%), congenital birth defects (7.0%), and malaria (6.0%). During the same period, neonatal disorders alone accounted for about 76.4% (70.2-79.6) of neonatal and 54.7% (51.9-57.2) of infant deaths in Ethiopia. While all regional states in Ethiopia have experienced a decline in under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality rates in the past three decades, the rate of change was not large enough to meet the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Inter-regional disparities in under 5 mortality also remain significant, with the biggest differences being in the neonatal period. A concerted effort is required to improve neonatal survival and lessen regional disparity, which may require strengthening essential obstetric and neonatal care services, among others. Our study also highlights the urgent need for primary studies to improve the accuracy of regional estimates in Ethiopia, particularly in pastoralist regions.
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Project description:BackgroundTo inform actions at the district level under the National Nutrition Mission (NNM), we assessed the prevalence trends of child growth failure (CGF) indicators for all districts in India and inequality between districts within the states.MethodsWe assessed the trends of CGF indicators (stunting, wasting and underweight) from 2000 to 2017 across the districts of India, aggregated from 5 × 5 km grid estimates, using all accessible data from various surveys with subnational geographical information. The states were categorised into three groups using their Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels calculated as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study based on per capita income, mean education and fertility rate in women younger than 25 years. Inequality between districts within the states was assessed using coefficient of variation (CV). We projected the prevalence of CGF indicators for the districts up to 2030 based on the trends from 2000 to 2017 to compare with the NNM 2022 targets for stunting and underweight, and the WHO/UNICEF 2030 targets for stunting and wasting. We assessed Pearson correlation coefficient between two major national surveys for district-level estimates of CGF indicators in the states.FindingsThe prevalence of stunting ranged 3.8-fold from 16.4% (95% UI 15.2-17.8) to 62.8% (95% UI 61.5-64.0) among the 723 districts of India in 2017, wasting ranged 5.4-fold from 5.5% (95% UI 5.1-6.1) to 30.0% (95% UI 28.2-31.8), and underweight ranged 4.6-fold from 11.0% (95% UI 10.5-11.9) to 51.0% (95% UI 49.9-52.1). 36.1% of the districts in India had stunting prevalence 40% or more, with 67.0% districts in the low SDI states group and only 1.1% districts in the high SDI states with this level of stunting. The prevalence of stunting declined significantly from 2010 to 2017 in 98.5% of the districts with a maximum decline of 41.2% (95% UI 40.3-42.5), wasting in 61.3% with a maximum decline of 44.0% (95% UI 42.3-46.7), and underweight in 95.0% with a maximum decline of 53.9% (95% UI 52.8-55.4). The CV varied 7.4-fold for stunting, 12.2-fold for wasting, and 8.6-fold for underweight between the states in 2017; the CV increased for stunting in 28 out of 31 states, for wasting in 16 states, and for underweight in 20 states from 2000 to 2017. In order to reach the NNM 2022 targets for stunting and underweight individually, 82.6% and 98.5% of the districts in India would need a rate of improvement higher than they had up to 2017, respectively. To achieve the WHO/UNICEF 2030 target for wasting, all districts in India would need a rate of improvement higher than they had up to 2017. The correlation between the two national surveys for district-level estimates was poor, with Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.7 only in Odisha and four small north-eastern states out of the 27 states covered by these surveys.InterpretationCGF indicators have improved in India, but there are substantial variations between the districts in their magnitude and rate of decline, and the inequality between districts has increased in a large proportion of the states. The poor correlation between the national surveys for CGF estimates highlights the need to standardise collection of anthropometric data in India. The district-level trends in this report provide a useful reference for targeting the efforts under NNM to reduce CGF across India and meet the Indian and global targets.
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Project description:BackgroundScarce epidemiological information on stroke in Mexico impedes evidence-based decisions and debilitates the design of effective prevention programmes at the local level.MethodsEcological and secondary analysis of Global Burden of Disease national and subnational data for Mexico, from 1990 to 2019. We analysed the incidence, prevalence, deaths, premature mortality, disability, and DALYs due to cerebrovascular disease included to identify the differences in the burden of stroke in Mexico by type of stroke (ischaemic [IS], intracerebral haemorrhage [ICH] and subarachnoid haemorrhage [SAH]), sex, age groups, and state levels ordered by quartiles of Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Means and 95% uncertainty intervals are reported.FindingsReductions in all metrics of total stroke occurred during the 1990 to 2005 period; however, this declining trend was followed up by stagnation of progress from 2006 to 2019, except for premature mortality. This pattern of the declining trend was observed also for IS and to a lesser extent for ICH, while SAH showed no major changes during the 1990-2019 period. The magnitude of decline was higher in females for total stroke for incidence, prevalence and YLDs rates. The less developed states by SDI exhibited the lowest improvements during the period, particularly for ICH metrics.InterpretationThe reduction in stroke burden in Mexico did not follow the same pace for all types of stroke, with regional differences by SDI and by sex. Study findings reveal the need for strengthening prevention policies to address health disparities in the burden of stroke by sex and states, within the fragmented Mexican Healthcare System.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| S-EPMC7314599 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Despite dramatic reductions in child marriage over the past decade, more than one in four girls in India still marry before reaching age 18. This practice is driven by a complex interplay of social and normative beliefs and values that are inadequately represented in national- or even state-level analyses of the drivers of child marriage. A geographic lens was employed to assess variations in child marriage prevalence across Indian districts, identify hot and cold spots, and quantify spatial dependence and heterogeneity in factors associated with district levels of child marriage. Data were derived from the 2015-16 National Family Health Survey and the 2011 India Census, and represent 636 districts in total. Analyses included global Moran's I, LISAs, spatial Durbin regression and geographically weighted regression. This study finds wide inter- and intra-state heterogeneity in levels of child marriage across India. District levels of child marriage were strongly influenced by geographic characteristics, and even more so by the geographic characteristics of neighboring districts. Districts with higher levels of female mobile phone access and newspaper use had lower levels of child marriage. These relationships, however, were all subject to substantial local spatial heterogeneity. The results indicate that characteristics of neighboring districts, as well as characteristics of a district itself, are important in explaining levels of child marriage, and that those relationships are not constant across India. Child marriage reduction programs that are targeted within specific administrative boundaries may thus be undermined by geographic delineations that do not necessarily reflect the independent and interdependent characteristics of the communities who live therein. The geographic, social and normative characteristics of local communities are key considerations in future child marriage programs and policies.
| S-EPMC7726340 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSince 2000, the scale-up of malaria control interventions has substantially reduced morbidity and mortality caused by the disease globally, fuelling bold aims for disease elimination. In tandem with increased availability of geospatially resolved data, malaria control programmes increasingly use high-resolution maps to characterise spatially heterogeneous patterns of disease risk and thus efficiently target areas of high burden.MethodsWe updated and refined the Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate and clinical incidence models for sub-Saharan Africa, which rely on cross-sectional survey data for parasite rate and intervention coverage. For malaria endemic countries outside of sub-Saharan Africa, we produced estimates of parasite rate and incidence by applying an ecological downscaling approach to malaria incidence data acquired via routine surveillance. Mortality estimates were derived by linking incidence to systematically derived vital registration and verbal autopsy data. Informed by high-resolution covariate surfaces, we estimated P falciparum parasite rate, clinical incidence, and mortality at national, subnational, and 5 × 5 km pixel scales with corresponding uncertainty metrics.FindingsWe present the first global, high-resolution map of P falciparum malaria mortality and the first global prevalence and incidence maps since 2010. These results are combined with those for Plasmodium vivax (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The P falciparum estimates span the period 2000-17, and illustrate the rapid decline in burden between 2005 and 2017, with incidence declining by 27·9% and mortality declining by 42·5%. Despite a growing population in endemic regions, P falciparum cases declined between 2005 and 2017, from 232·3 million (95% uncertainty interval 198·8-277·7) to 193·9 million (156·6-240·2) and deaths declined from 925 800 (596 900-1 341 100) to 618 700 (368 600-952 200). Despite the declines in burden, 90·1% of people within sub-Saharan Africa continue to reside in endemic areas, and this region accounted for 79·4% of cases and 87·6% of deaths in 2017.InterpretationHigh-resolution maps of P falciparum provide a contemporary resource for informing global policy and malaria control planning, programme implementation, and monitoring initiatives. Amid progress in reducing global malaria burden, areas where incidence trends have plateaued or increased in the past 5 years underscore the fragility of hard-won gains against malaria. Efforts towards elimination should be strengthened in such areas, and those where burden remained high throughout the study period.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Project description:BackgroundHomicides are a major problem in Brazil. Drugs and arms trafficking, and land conflicts are three of the many factors driving homicide rates in Brazil. Understanding long-term spatiotemporal trends and social structural factors associated with homicides in Brazil would be useful for designing policies aimed at reducing homicide rates.MethodsWe obtained data from 2000 to 2014 from the Brazil Ministry of Health (MOH) Mortality Information System and sociodemographic data from the Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). First, we quantified the rate of change in homicides at the municipality and state levels. Second, we used principal component regression and k-medoids clustering to examine differences in temporal trends across municipalities. Lastly, we used Bayesian hierarchical space-time models to describe spatio-temporal patterns and to assess the contribution of structural factors.ResultsThere were significant variations in homicide rates across states and municipalities. We noted the largest decrease in homicide rates in the western and southeastern states of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Espirito Santo, which coincided with an increase in homicide rates in the northeastern states of Ceará, Alagoas, Paraiba, Rio Grande Norte, Sergipe and Bahia during the fifteen-year period. The decrease in homicides in municipalities with populations of at least 250,000 coincided with an increase in municipalities with 25,000 people or less. Structural factors that predicted municipality-level homicide rates included crude domestic product, urbanization, border with neighboring countries and proportion of population aged fifteen to twenty-nine.ConclusionsOur findings support both a dissemination hypothesis and an interiorization hypothesis. These findings should be considered when designing interventions to curb homicide rates.
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