Dataset Information

Current and Projected Distributions of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus in Canada and the U.S.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are mosquito vectors of more than 22 arboviruses that infect humans. OBJECTIVES:Our objective was to develop regional ecological niche models for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the conterminous United States and Canada with current observed and simulated climate and land-use data using boosted regression trees (BRTs). METHODS:We used BRTs to assess climatic suitability for Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti mosquitoes in Canada and the United States under current and future projected climates. RESULTS:Models for both species were mostly influenced by minimum daily temperature and demonstrated high accuracy for predicting their geographic ranges under the current climate. The northward range expansion of suitable niches for both species was projected under future climate models. Much of the United States and parts of southern Canada are projected to be suitable for both species by 2100, with Ae. albopictus projected to expand its range north earlier this century and further north than Ae. aegypti. DISCUSSION:Our projections suggest that the suitable ecological niche for Aedes will expand with climate change in Canada and the United States, thus increasing the risk of Aedes-transmitted arboviruses. Increased surveillance for these vectors and the pathogens they carry would be prudent. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5899.

SUBMITTER: Khan SU

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7263460 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Current and Projected Distributions of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> and <i>Ae. albopictus</i> in Canada and the U.S.

Khan Salah Uddin SU Ogden Nicholas H NH Fazil Aamir A AA Gachon Philippe H PH Dueymes Guillaume U GU Greer Amy L AL Ng Victoria V

Environmental health perspectives 20200522 5

<h4>Background</h4><i>Aedes aegypti</i> and <i>Ae. albopictus</i> are mosquito vectors of more than 22 arboviruses that infect humans.<h4>Objectives</h4>Our objective was to develop regional ecological niche models for <i>Ae. aegypti</i> and <i>Ae. albopictus</i> in the conterminous United States and Canada with current observed and simulated climate and land-use data using boosted regression trees (BRTs).<h4>Methods</h4>We used BRTs to assess climatic suitability for <i>Ae. albopictus</i> and < ...[more]

PMID: 32441995

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundAedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors that transmit several arboviral diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. The world is presently experiencing a series of outbreaks of these diseases, so, we still require to better understand the current distributions and possible future shifts of their vectors for successful surveillance and control programs. Few studies assessed the influences of climate change on the spatial distributional patterns and abundance of these important vectors, particularly using the most recent climatic scenarios. Here, we updated the current potential distributions of both vectors and assessed their distributional changes under future climate conditions.MethodsWe used ecological niche modeling approach to estimate the potential distributions of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus under present-day and future climate conditions. This approach fits ecological niche model from occurrence records of each species and environmental variables. For each species, future projections were based on climatic data from 9 general circulation models (GCMs) for each representative concentration pathway (RCP) in each time period, with a total of 72 combinations in four RCPs in 2050 and 2070. All ENMs were tested using the partial receiver operating characteristic (pROC) and a set of 2,048 and 2,003 additional independent records for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively. Finally, we used background similarity test to assess the similarity between the ENMs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus.ResultsThe predicted potential distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus coincided with the current and historical known distributions of both species. Aedes aegypti showed a markedly broader distributional potential across tropical and subtropical regions than Ae. albopictus. Interestingly, Ae. albopictus was markedly broader in distributional potential across temperate Europe and the United States. All ecological niche models (ENMs) were statistically robust (P < 0.001). ENMs successfully anticipated 98% (1,999/2,048) and 99% (1,985/2,003) of additional independent records for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively (P < 0.001). ENMs based on future conditions showed similarity between the overall distributional patterns of future-day and present-day conditions; however, there was a northern range expansion in the continental USA to include parts of Southern Canada in case of Ae. albopictus in both 2050 and 2070. Future models also anticipated further expansion of Ae. albopictus to the East to include most of Europe in both time periods. Aedes aegypti was anticipated to expand to the South in East Australia in 2050 and 2070. The predictions showed differences in distributional potential of both species between diverse RCPs in 2050 and 2070. Finally, the background similarity test comparing the ENMs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus was unable to reject the null hypothesis of niche similarity between both species (P > 0.05).ConclusionThese updated maps provided details to better guide surveillance and control programs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. They have also significant public health importance as a baseline for predicting the emergence of arboviral diseases transmitted by both vectors in new areas across the world.

Project description:Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are two highly invasive mosquito species, both vectors of several viruses, including dengue, chikungunya and Zika. While Ae. aegypti is the primary vector in the tropics and sub-tropics, Ae. albopictus is increasingly under the public health watch as it has been implicated in arbovirus-transmission in more temperate regions, including continental Europe. Vector control using insecticides is the pillar of most control programmes; hence development of insecticide resistance is of great concern. As part of a Brazilian-Swiss Joint Research Programme we set out to assess whether there are any signs of existing or incipient insecticide resistance primarily against the larvicide Bacillus thuringiensis svar. israelensis (Bti), but also against currently applied and potentially alternative insecticides in our areas, Recife (Brazil) and the Swiss-Italian border region.Following World Health Organization guidelines, dose-response curves for a range of insecticides were established for both colonized and field caught Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. The larvicides included Bti, two of its toxins, Cry11Aa and Cry4Ba, Lysinibacillus sphaericus, Vectomax CG®, a formulated combination of Bti and L. sphaericus, and diflubenzuron. In addition to the larvicides, the Swiss-Italian Ae. albopictus populations were also tested against five adulticides (bendiocarb, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane, malathion, permethrin and ?-cyhalothrin).Showing a similar dose-response, all mosquito populations were fully susceptible to the larvicides tested and, in particular, to Bti which is currently used both in Brazil and Switzerland. In addition, there were no signs of incipient resistance against Bti as larvae were equally susceptible to the individual toxins, Cry11Aa and Cry4Ba. The field-caught Swiss-Italian populations were susceptible to the adulticides tested but DDT mortality rates showed signs of reduced susceptibility.The insecticides currently used for mosquito control in Switzerland and Brazil are still effective against the target populations. The present study provides an important reference as relatively few insecticide susceptibility surveys have been carried out with Ae. albopictus.

Dataset Information

Current and Projected Distributions of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus in Canada and the U.S.

Publications

Current and Projected Distributions of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> and <i>Ae. albopictus</i> in Canada and the U.S.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets