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Optimization of group size in pool testing strategy for SARS-CoV-2: A simple mathematical model.

ABSTRACT: Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) has reached unprecedented pandemic levels and is affecting almost every country in the world. Ramping up the testing capacity of a country supposes an essential public health response to this new outbreak. A pool testing strategy where multiple samples are tested in a single reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) kit could potentially increase a country's testing capacity. The aim of this study is to propose a simple mathematical model to estimate the optimum number of pooled samples according to the relative prevalence of positive tests in a particular healthcare context, assuming that if a group tests negative, no further testing is done whereas if a group tests positive, all the subjects of the group are retested individually. The model predicts group sizes that range from 11 to 3 subjects. For a prevalence of 10% of positive tests, 40.6% of tests can be saved using testing groups of four subjects. For a 20% prevalence, 17.9% of tests can be saved using groups of three subjects. For higher prevalences, the strategy flattens and loses effectiveness. Pool testing individuals for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is a valuable strategy that could considerably boost a country's testing capacity. However, further studies are needed to address how large these groups can be, without losing sensitivity on the RT-PCR. The strategy best works in settings with a low prevalence of positive tests. It is best implemented in subgroups with low clinical suspicion. The model can be adapted to specific prevalences, generating a tailored to the context implementation of the pool testing strategy.

SUBMITTER: Aragon-Caqueo D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7264525 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Optimization of group size in pool testing strategy for SARS-CoV-2: A simple mathematical model.

Aragón-Caqueo Diego D Fernández-Salinas Javier J Laroze David D

Journal of medical virology 20200503 10

Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) has reached unprecedented pandemic levels and is affecting almost every country in the world. Ramping up the testing capacity of a country supposes an essential public health response to this new outbreak. A pool testing strategy where multiple samples are tested in a single reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) kit could potentially increase a country's testing capacity. The aim of this study is to propose a simple mathematical model to estimate ...[more]

PMID: 32330297

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Project description:Combining diagnostic specimens into pools has been considered as a strategy to augment throughput, decrease turnaround time, and leverage resources. This study utilized a multi-parametric approach to assess optimum pool size, impact of automation, and effect of nucleic acid amplification chemistries on the detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in pooled samples for surveillance testing on the Hologic Panther Fusion® System. Dorfman pooled testing was conducted with previously tested SARS-CoV-2 nasopharyngeal samples using Hologic's Aptima® and Panther Fusion® SARS-CoV-2 Emergency Use Authorization assays. A manual workflow was used to generate pool sizes of 5:1 (five samples: one positive, four negative) and 10:1. An automated workflow was used to generate pool sizes of 3:1, 4:1, 5:1, 8:1 and 10:1. The impact of pool size, pooling method, and assay chemistry on sensitivity, specificity, and lower limit of detection (LLOD) was evaluated. Both the Hologic Aptima® and Panther Fusion® SARS-CoV-2 assays demonstrated >85% positive percent agreement between neat testing and pool sizes ≤5:1, satisfying FDA recommendation. Discordant results between neat and pooled testing were more frequent for positive samples with CT>35. Fusion® CT (cycle threshold) values for pooled samples increased as expected for pool sizes of 5:1 (CT increase of 1.92-2.41) and 10:1 (CT increase of 3.03-3.29). The Fusion® assay demonstrated lower LLOD than the Aptima® assay for pooled testing (956 vs 1503 cp/mL, pool size of 5:1). Lowering the cut-off threshold of the Aptima® assay from 560 kRLU (manufacturer's setting) to 350 kRLU improved the assay sensitivity to that of the Fusion® assay for pooled testing. Both Hologic's SARS-CoV-2 assays met the FDA recommended guidelines for percent positive agreement (>85%) for pool sizes ≤5:1. Automated pooling increased test throughput and enabled automated sample tracking while requiring less labor. The Fusion® SARS-CoV-2 assay, which demonstrated a lower LLOD, may be more appropriate for surveillance testing.

Dataset Information

Optimization of group size in pool testing strategy for SARS-CoV-2: A simple mathematical model.

Publications

Optimization of group size in pool testing strategy for SARS-CoV-2: A simple mathematical model.

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