Dataset Information

Spatiotemporal matching between medical resources and population ageing in China from 2008 to 2017.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Globally, the increasingly severe population ageing issue has been creating challenges in terms of medical resource allocation and public health policies. The aim of this study is to address the space-time trends of the population-ageing rate (PAR), the number of medical resources per thousand residents (NMRTR) in mainland China in the past 10?years, and to investigate the spatial and temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China. METHODS:The Bayesian space-time hierarchy model was employed to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of PAR and NMRTR in mainland China over the past 10?years. Subsequently, a Bayesian Geo-Detector model was developed to evaluate the spatial and temporal matching levels between PAR and NMRTR at national level. The matching odds ratio (OR) index proposed in this paper was applied to measure the matching levels between the two terms in each provincial area. RESULTS:The Chinese spatial and temporal matching q-statistic values between the PAR and three vital types of NMRTR were all less than 0.45. Only the spatial matching Bayesian q-statistic values between the PAR and the number of beds in hospital reached 0.42 (95% credible interval: 0.37, 0.48) nationwide. Chongqing and Guizhou located in southwest China had the highest spatial and temporal matching ORs, respectively, between the PAR and the three types of NMRTR. The spatial pattern of the spatial and temporal matching ORs between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China exhibited distinct geographical features, but the geographical structure of the spatial matching differed from that of the temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR. CONCLUSION:The spatial and temporal matching degrees between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China were generally very low. The provincial regions with high PAR largely experienced relatively low spatial matching levels between the PAR and NMRTR, and vice versa. The geographical pattern of the temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR exhibited the feature of north-south differentiation.

SUBMITTER: Li J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7268461 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Spatiotemporal matching between medical resources and population ageing in China from 2008 to 2017.

Li Junming J Chen Xinglin X Han Xiulan X Zhang Gehong G

BMC public health 20200603 1

<h4>Background</h4>Globally, the increasingly severe population ageing issue has been creating challenges in terms of medical resource allocation and public health policies. The aim of this study is to address the space-time trends of the population-ageing rate (PAR), the number of medical resources per thousand residents (NMRTR) in mainland China in the past 10 years, and to investigate the spatial and temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China.<h4>Methods</h4>The Bayesian sp ...[more]

PMID: 32493251

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Project description:BackgroundThe Chinese population has aged significantly in the last few decades. Comprehensive health losses including both fatal and non-fatal health outcomes associated with ageing in China have not been detailed.MethodsBased on freely accessible disability adjusted life years (DALYs) estimated by the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2017, we adopted a robust decomposition method that ascribes changes in DALYs in any given country across two time points to changes resulting from three sources: population size, age structure, and age-specific DALYs rate per 100,000 population. Using the method, we calculated DALYs associated with population ageing in China from 1990 to 2017 and examined the counteraction between the effects of DALYs rate change and population ageing. This method extends previous work through attributing the change in DALYs to the three sources.ResultsPopulation ageing was associated with 92.8 million DALYs between 1990 and 2017 in China, of which 65.8% (61.1 million) were years of life lost (YLLs). Males had comparatively more DALYs associated with population ageing than females in the study period. The five leading causes of DALYs associated with population ageing between 1990 and 2017 were stroke (23.6 million), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (18.3 million), ischemic heart disease (13.0 million), tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (6.1 million) and liver cancer (5.0 million). Between 1990 and 2017, changes in DALYs associated with age-specific DALY rate reductions far exceeded those related to population ageing (- 196.2 million versus 92.8 million); 57.5% (- 112.8 million) of DALYs were caused by decreases in rates attributed to 84 modifiable risk factors.ConclusionPopulation ageing was associated with growing health loss in China from 1990 to 2017. Despite the recent progress in alleviating health loss associated with population ageing, the government should encourage scientific research on effective and affordable prevention and control strategies and should consider investment in resources to implement strategies nationwide to address the future challenge of population ageing.

Project description:BackgroundThis study aimed to identify the most frequent reasons for orthopedic medical malpractice, gain insight into the related patient demographics and clinical characteristics, and identify the independent factors associated with it.MethodsWe collected and analyzed the demographic and injury characteristics, hospital levels and treatments, medical errors, and orthopedist's degree of responsibility for the patients who were subject to orthopedic medical malpractice at our institution. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the factors associated with the orthopedist's degree of responsibility in the medical malpractice cases.ResultsWe included 1922 cases of medical malpractice in the final analysis. There were 1195 and 727 men and women, respectively (62.2% and 37.8%, respectively). Of the total patients, 1810, 1038, 1558, 1441, and 414 patients (94.2%, 54.0%, 81.1%, 75.0%, and 21.5%, respectively) were inpatients, had closed injuries, underwent surgery, were trauma cases, and had preoperative comorbidities, respectively. Most medical malpractice cases were in patients with fractures and spinal degenerative disease (1229 and 253 cases; 63.9% and 13.2%, respectively), and occurred in city-level hospitals (1006 cases, 52.3%), which were located in the eastern part of china (1001, 52.1%), including Jiangsu and Zhejiang (279 and 233 cases, 14.52% and 52.1%, respectively). Between 2016 and 2017, the orthopedist's degree of responsibility in medical malpractice claims were deemed as full, primary, equal, secondary, and minor in 135, 654, 77, 716, and 340 orthopedists (7.0%, 34.0%, 4.0%, 37.3%, and 17.7%). Most medical errors made by orthopedists in cases of medical malpractice were related to failure to supervise or monitor cases, improper performance of procedures, and failure to instruct or communicate with the patient (736, 716, and 423 cases; 38.3%, 37.3%, and 22.0%, respectively). The multivariate analysis found that patients with preoperative comorbidities, who sustained humerus injuries, who were aged ≥65 years, who were treated by doctors who failed to supervise or monitor them, and who were treated at the provincial and city level hospitals were more likely to claim that the orthopedist bore a serious degree of responsibility in the medical malpractice case.ConclusionsOur results provide detailed information on the plaintiff demographics, clinical characteristics, and factors associated with medical malpractice. Medical malpractice is related to poor treatment outcomes. The first preventative measure that is required is a comprehensive improvement in the medical staff quality, mainly through medical ethics cultivation, and professional ability and technique training. Additionally, failure to supervise or monitor cases was the leading cause of medical malpractice and one of the factors that led to orthopedists bearing an equal and higher responsibility for medical malpractice. Orthopedists should improve patient supervision, especially when treating older patients and those with preoperative comorbidities and humerus injuries.

Project description:The global burden of cholera is increasing, with the majority (60%) of the cases occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. In Zambia, widespread cholera outbreaks have occurred since 1977, predominantly in the capital city of Lusaka. During both the 2016 and 2018 outbreaks, the Ministry of Health implemented cholera vaccination in addition to other preventative and control measures, to stop the spread and control the outbreak. Given the limitations in vaccine availability and the logistical support required for vaccination, oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is now recommended for use in the high risk areas ("hotspots") for cholera. Hence, the aim of this study was to identify areas with an increased risk of cholera in Zambia. Retrospective cholera case data from 2008 to 2017 was obtained from the Ministry of Health, Department of Public Health and Disease Surveillance. The Zambian Central Statistical Office provided district-level population data, socioeconomic and water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) indicators. To identify districts at high risk, we performed a discrete Poisson-based space-time scan statistic to account for variations in cholera risk across both space and time over a 10-year study period. A zero-inflated negative binomial regression model was employed to identify the district level risk factors for cholera. The risk map was generated by classifying the relative risk of cholera in each district, as obtained from the space-scan test statistic. In total, 34,950 cases of cholera were reported in Zambia between 2008 and 2017. Cholera cases varied spatially by year. During the study period, Lusaka District had the highest burden of cholera, with 29,080 reported cases. The space-time scan statistic identified 16 districts to be at a significantly higher risk of having cholera. The relative risk of having cholera in these districts was significantly higher and ranged from 1.25 to 78.87 times higher when compared to elsewhere in the country. Proximity to waterbodies was the only factor associated with the increased risk for cholera (P<0.05). This study provides a basis for the cholera elimination program in Zambia. Outside Lusaka, the majority of high risk districts identified were near the border with the DRC, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. This suggests that cholera in Zambia may be linked to movement of people from neighboring areas of cholera endemicity. A collaborative intervention program implemented in concert with neighboring countries could be an effective strategy for elimination of cholera in Zambia, while also reducing rates at a regional level.

Project description:AIMS:At a time of declining smoking prevalence in England, it is useful to document any changes in the characteristics of smokers. This has implications for targeting tobacco control policies and interventions. This study compared the characteristics of smokers from 2008 to 2017 to assess changes in smoking and quitting patterns and socio-demographic profile. DESIGN AND SETTING:Analysis of annual trends in results from repeated cross-sectional surveys of representative samples of the population in England from 2008 to 2017. PARTICIPANTS:The study included 208?813 adults aged 16+. MEASUREMENTS:Information was gathered on age, sex, social grade and region, cigarette consumption, cigarette dependence as measured by time to first cigarette of the day, daily smoking, smoking roll-your-own cigarettes, attempts to cut down, use of an e-cigarette or nicotine replacement therapy, attempts to cut down or quit, use of support in quit attempts and whether the quit attempt was abrupt. FINDINGS:During the period, mean daily cigarette consumption [B = -0.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.33 to -0.27] and the time to first cigarette score decreased (B = -0.03, 95% CI = -0.03 to -0.02). The proportion of smokers attempting to cut down or quit decreased (odds ratio (OR) range = 0.96-0.97, 95% CI range = 0.95-0.97). Use of behavioural support [odds ratio (OR) = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.86-0.92] or no support decreased (OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.96-0.99), while use of pharmacological support, including e-cigarettes, increased (OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.02-1.05). There was no significant change in the difference in social grade between smokers and non-smokers comparing 2008 with 2017. Changes in smoking and quitting behaviour were independent of changes in socio-demographic characteristics. CONCLUSIONS:Between 2008 and 2017 in England, smokers appear to have become less dependent on cigarettes but less likely to try to quit or cut down. Of those who tried to quit, fewer used behavioural support and more used pharmacological support. The proportion from more disadvantaged backgrounds did not change significantly.

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Dataset Information

Spatiotemporal matching between medical resources and population ageing in China from 2008 to 2017.

Publications

Spatiotemporal matching between medical resources and population ageing in China from 2008 to 2017.

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