Dataset Information

Impact of school closures for COVID-19 on the US health-care workforce and net mortality: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is leading to social (physical) distancing policies worldwide, including in the USA. Some of the first actions taken by governments are the closing of schools. The evidence that mandatory school closures reduce the number of cases and, ultimately, mortality comes from experience with influenza or from models that do not include the effect of school closure on the health-care labour force. The potential benefits from school closures need to be weighed against costs of health-care worker absenteeism associated with additional child-care obligations. In this study, we aimed to measure child-care obligations for US health-care workers arising from school closures when these are used as a social distancing measure. We then assessed how important the contribution of health-care workers would have to be in reducing mortality for their absenteeism due to child-care obligations to undo the benefits of school closures in reducing the number of cases.

Methods

For this modelling analysis, we used data from the monthly releases of the US Current Population Survey to characterise the family structure and probable within-household child-care options of US health-care workers. We accounted for the occupation within the health-care sector, state, and household structure to identify the segments of the health-care workforce that are most exposed to child-care obligations from school closures. We used these estimates to identify the critical level at which the importance of health-care labour supply in increasing the survival probability of a patient with COVID-19 would undo the benefits of school closures and ultimately increase cumulative mortality.

Findings

Between January, 2018, and January, 2020, the US Current Population Survey included information on more than 3·1 million individuals across 1·3 million households. We found that the US health-care sector has some of the highest child-care obligations in the USA, with 28·8% (95% CI 28·5-29·1) of the health-care workforce needing to provide care for children aged 3-12 years. Assuming non-working adults or a sibling aged 13 years or older can provide child care, 15·0% (14·8-15·2) of the health-care workforce would still be in need of child care during a school closure. We observed substantial variation within the health-care system. We estimated that, combined with reasonable parameters for COVID-19 such as a 15·0% case reduction from school closings and 2·0% baseline mortality rate, a 15·0% decrease in the health-care labour force would need to decrease the survival probability per percent health-care worker lost by 17·6% for a school closure to increase cumulative mortality. Our model estimates that if the infection mortality rate of COVID-19 increases from 2·00% to 2·35% when the health-care workforce declines by 15·0%, school closures could lead to a greater number of deaths than they prevent.

Interpretation

School closures come with many trade-offs, and can create unintended child-care obligations. Our results suggest that the potential contagion prevention from school closures needs to be carefully weighted with the potential loss of health-care workers from the standpoint of reducing cumulative mortality due to COVID-19, in the absence of mitigating measures.

Funding

None.

SUBMITTER: Bayham J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7270508 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Impact of school closures for COVID-19 on the US health-care workforce and net mortality: a modelling study.

Bayham Jude J Fenichel Eli P EP

The Lancet. Public health 20200403 5

<h4>Background</h4>The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is leading to social (physical) distancing policies worldwide, including in the USA. Some of the first actions taken by governments are the closing of schools. The evidence that mandatory school closures reduce the number of cases and, ultimately, mortality comes from experience with influenza or from models that do not include the effect of school closure on the health-care labour force. The potential benefits from school closu ...[more]

PMID: 32251626

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Project description:ObjectivesCOVID-19 pandemic affected majority of students worldwide because school closures were one of the first and frequently taken measures in tackling epidemic. This study analyzed trends in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality from the beginning of pandemic in Croatia, in relation to schools opening and closing.Study designRetrospective data review.MethodsData on COVID-19 positive patients in Croatia from week 9 of 2020 to week 10 of 2021 in Croatia were analyzed using joinpoint regression. Analysis also included hospitalizations and mortality trends for age groups 26 to 65 and 66+ from week 30 of 2020.ResultsSchools opened in fall after the summer holidays in week 37. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed a statistically significant increase in cumulative incidence rates of COVID-19 in all age groups until 50th week, except in the 19-25 age group which saw an increase until 49th week. During the period of increase, there were periods of moderate increases and rapid increases in incidence that were present between 39/41 week and 43/44 week in all age groups except in those 0-6 years [from 40th till 43rd week in age groups 7-14 and 15-18, average percentage change (APC) = 87.41, P = 0.035, and APC = 83.47, P = 0.013; from 39th till 43rd in 19-25, APC = 91.90, P = 0.002; from 40th till 44th in 26-65, APC = 74.79, P < 0.001; from 41st till 44th in 66+, APC = 81.95, P = 0.004]. Steeper increase in hospitalizations was seen in 40th week for age groups 26 to 65 (40th to 45th week APC = 34.67, P < 0.001) and 66+ (40th to 45th week APC = 38.76, P < 0.001). Steeper increase in mortality started in 41st week for both age groups 26 to 65 and 66+ (41st to 46th week APC = 59.59, P < 0.001 and 41st to 45th week APC = 70.28, P < 0.001). Schools were closed for winter holidays in week 51. A steep decrease occurred in week 50 for cases and in week 51 for mortality and hospitalizations. There was no significant increase in hospitalizations and mortality after schools were re-opened in week 03 of 2021 (primary schools) and week 07 (secondary schools).ConclusionCOVID-19 morbidity and mortality trends in Croatia observed in fall 2020 in Croatia perhaps cannot completely exclude potential association of school opening in all age groups. However, in winter 2021 effect was completely lacking and numbers were independent of schools' dynamics. The observed inconsistent pattern indicates that there were no association of school openings and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality trends in Croatia and that other factors were leading to increasing and decreasing numbers. This emphasizes the need to consider the introduction of other effective and less harmful measures by stakeholders, or at least to use school closures as a last resort.

Project description:ImportanceIn-person schooling has been disrupted for most school-aged youth during the COVID-19 pandemic, with low-income, Black, and Hispanic populations most likely to receive fully remote instruction. Disruptions to in-person schooling may have negatively and inequitably affected children's mental health.ObjectiveTo estimate the association between school closures and child mental health outcomes and how it varies across sociodemographic factors.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional population-based survey study included a nationally representative sample of US adults aged 18 to 64 years with at least 1 child in the household. The survey was administered between December 2 and December 21, 2020, via web and telephone in English and Spanish. Participants were recruited from the NORC AmeriSpeak panel, an address-based panel with known probability sampling and coverage of 97% of US households.ExposuresSchooling modality (in person, fully remote, or hybrid), household income, age.Main outcomes and measuresChild mental health difficulties were measured with the parent-report version of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, with small, medium, and large effect sizes defined as 1.3-, 3.3-, and 5.2-point differences, respectively.ResultsA total of 2324 adults completed the survey. Overall, 1671 respondents (71.9%) were women, 244 (10.5%) were Black, 372 (16.0%) were Hispanic, and 421 (18.1%) had a high school education or less. Children attending school in-person had higher household incomes (mean difference, $9719; 95% CI, $4327 to $15 111; P < .001) and were more likely to be White compared with those attending remotely (366 of 556 [65.8%] vs 597 of 1340 [44.5%]; P < .001). Older children in remote schooling had more mental health difficulties than those attending in-person schooling (standardized effect size, 0.23 [95% CI, 0.07 to 0.39] per year older; P = .006), corresponding to small effect sizes in favor of in-person schooling for older children and very small effect sizes favoring remote schooling for younger children. Children from families with higher income benefitted more from attending schools in-person compared with their peers from families with lower income (B = -0.20 [95% CI, -0.10 to -0.30] per $10 000-increase in annual income; P < .001), although this advantage was not apparent for children attending hybrid school (B = -0.05 [95% CI, -0.16 to 0.06] per $10 000-increase in annual income; P = .34), and directionally lower but not significantly different for children attending remote school (B = -0.12 [95% CI, -0.04 to -0.20] per $10 000-increase in annual income; P < .001). Learning pods fully buffered the associations of hybrid schooling (d = -0.25; 95% CI, -0.47 to -0.04) but not remote schooling (d = 0.04; 95% CI, -0.10 to 0.18) with negative mental health outcomes.Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this study suggest that older and Black and Hispanic children as well as those from families with lower income who attend school remotely may experience greater impairment to mental health than their younger, White, and higher-income counterparts. Ensuring that all students have access to additional educational and mental health resources must be an important public health priority, met with appropriate funding and workforce augmentation, during and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic.

Dataset Information

Impact of school closures for COVID-19 on the US health-care workforce and net mortality: a modelling study.

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Funding

Publications

Impact of school closures for COVID-19 on the US health-care workforce and net mortality: a modelling study.

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