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Canada needs to rapidly escalate public health interventions for its COVID-19 mitigation strategies.

ABSTRACT: Background:After the declaration of COVID-19 pandemic on March 11th, 2020, local transmission chains starting in different countries including Canada are forcing governments to take decisions on public health interventions to mitigate the spread of the epidemic. Methods:We conduct data-driven and model-free estimations for the growth rates of the COVID-19 epidemics in Italy and Canada, by fitting an exponential curve to the daily reported cases. We use these estimates to predict epidemic trends in Canada under different scenarios of public health interventions. Results:In Italy, the initial growth rate (0.22) has reduced to 0.1 two weeks after the lockdown of the country on March 8th, 2020. This corresponds to an increase of the doubling time from about 3.15 to almost 7 days. In comparison, the growth rate in Canada has increased from 0.13 between March 1st and 13th, to 0.25 between March 13th to 22nd. This current growth rate corresponds to a doubling time of 2.7 days, and therefore, unless further public health interventions are escalated in Canada, we project 15,000 cases by March 31st. However, the case number may be reduced to 4000 if escalated public health interventions could instantly reduce the growth rate to 0.1, the same level achieved in Italy. Interpretation:Prompt and farsighted interventions are critical to counteract the very rapid initial growth of the COVID-19 epidemic in Canada. Mitigation plans must take into account the delayed effect of interventions by up to 2-weeks and the short doubling time of 3-4 days.

SUBMITTER: Scarabel F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7270648 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Canada needs to rapidly escalate public health interventions for its COVID-19 mitigation strategies.

Scarabel Francesca F Pellis Lorenzo L Bragazzi Nicola Luigi NL Wu Jianhong J

Infectious Disease Modelling 20200331

<h4>Background</h4>After the declaration of COVID-19 pandemic on March 11th<sup>,</sup> 2020, local transmission chains starting in different countries including Canada are forcing governments to take decisions on public health interventions to mitigate the spread of the epidemic.<h4>Methods</h4>We conduct data-driven and model-free estimations for the growth rates of the COVID-19 epidemics in Italy and Canada, by fitting an exponential curve to the daily reported cases. We use these estimates t ...[more]

PMID: 32518882

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Project description:Until less than two decades ago, all known human coronaviruses (CoV) caused diseases so mild that they did not stimulate further advanced CoV research. In 2002 and following years, the scenario changed dramatically with the advent of the new more pathogenic CoVs, including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndome (SARS-CoV-1), Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome (MERS)-CoV, and the new zoonotic SARS-CoV-2, likely originated from bat species and responsible for the present coronavirus disease (COVID-19), which to date has caused 15,581,007 confirmed cases and 635,173 deaths in 208 countries, including Italy. SARS-CoV-2 transmission is mainly airborne via droplets generated by symptomatic patients, and possibly asymptomatic individuals during incubation of the disease, although for the latter, there are no certain data yet. However, research on asymptomatic viral infection is currently ongoing worldwide to elucidate the real prevalence and mortality of the disease. From a clinical point of view, COVID-19 would be defined as "COVID Planet " because it presents as a multifaceted disease, due to the large number of organs and tissues infected by the virus. Overall, based on the available published data, 80.9% of patients infected by SARS-CoV-2 develop a mild disease/infection, 13.8% severe pneumonia, 4.7% respiratory failure, septic shock, or multi-organ failure, and 3% of these cases are fatal, but mortality parameter is highly variable in different countries. Clinically, SARS-CoV-2 causes severe primary interstitial viral pneumonia and a "cytokine storm syndrome", characterized by a severe and fatal uncontrolled systemic inflammatory response triggered by the activation of interleukin 6 (IL-6) with development of endothelitis and generalized thrombosis that can lead to organ failure and death. Risk factors include advanced age and comorbidities including hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. Virus entry occurs via binding the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor present in almost all tissues and organs through the Spike (S) protein. Currently, SARS-CoV-2 infection is prevented by the use of masks, social distancing, and improved hand hygiene measures. This review summarizes the current knowledge on the main biological and clinical features of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, also focusing on the principal measures taken in some Italian regions to face the emergency and on the most important treatments used to manage the COVID-19 pandemic.

Project description:BackgroundA variety of public health measures have been implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada to reduce contact between individuals. The objective of this study was to provide empirical contact pattern data to evaluate the impact of public health measures, the degree to which social contacts rebounded to normal levels, as well as direct public health efforts toward age- and location-specific settings.MethodsFour population-based cross-sectional surveys were administered to members of a paid panel representative of Canadian adults by age, gender, official language, and region of residence during May (Survey 1), July (Survey 2), September (Survey 3), and December (Survey 4) 2020. A total of 4981 (Survey 1), 2493 (Survey 2), 2495 (Survey 3), and 2491 (Survey 4) respondents provided information about the age and setting for each direct contact made in a 24-h period. Contact matrices were constructed and contacts for those under the age of 18 years imputed. The next generation matrix approach was used to estimate the reproduction number (Rt) for each survey. Respondents with children under 18 years estimated the number of contacts their children made in school and extracurricular settings.ResultsEstimated Rt values were 0.49 (95% CI: 0.29-0.69) for May, 0.48 (95% CI: 0.29-0.68) for July, 1.06 (95% CI: 0.63-1.52) for September, and 0.81 (0.47-1.17) for December. The highest proportion of reported contacts occurred within the home (51.3% in May), in 'other' locations (49.2% in July) and at work (66.3 and 65.4% in September and December). Respondents with children reported an average of 22.7 (95% CI: 21.1-24.3) (September) and 19.0 (95% CI 17.7-20.4) (December) contacts at school per day per child in attendance.ConclusionThe skewed distribution of reported contacts toward workplace settings in September and December combined with the number of reported school-related contacts suggest that these settings represent important opportunities for transmission emphasizing the need to support and ensure infection control procedures in both workplaces and schools.

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Canada needs to rapidly escalate public health interventions for its COVID-19 mitigation strategies.

Publications

Canada needs to rapidly escalate public health interventions for its COVID-19 mitigation strategies.

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