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A Delayed Modified ICH Score Outperforms Baseline Scoring in Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

ABSTRACT: The Modified Intracerebral Hemorrhage (MICH) score is a simple tool created to provide prognostication in basal ganglia hemorrhages. Current prognostic scores, including the MICH, are based on the assessment of baseline patient characteristics, failing to account for significant developments, such as intraventricular extension and clinical deterioration, which may occur over the first 72 hours. We propose to validate the MICH in all hemorrhage locations and hypothesize that its calculation at 72 hours will outperform its baseline counterpart with respect to predicting mortality and functional outcome. We performed a retrospective analysis of collated data from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive database. Primary outcome was 90-day mortality. Secondary outcome was poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale 4-6) at 90 days. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated looking at the predictive ability of the MICH score for mortality and poor outcome, at baseline and at 72 hours. Competing curves were assessed with nonparametric methods. A total of 226 patients were included, with a 90-day mortality of 22.5%. The MICH scores calculated at 72 hours were more predictive of mortality than at baseline (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.89 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.83-0.94] vs 0.78 [95% CI: 0.70-0.85]), P < .01. The MICH scores at 72 hours similarly better predicted functional outcome (AUC: 0.78 [95% CI: 0.72-0.84] vs AUC: 0.72 [95% CI: 0.66-0.78]), P = .047. The MICH score has positive prognostic value for mortality and poor functional outcome in all hemorrhage locations. Delaying its calculation resulted in higher predictive values for both and suggests that delaying discussions around withdrawal of care may result in more accurate prognostication in acute intracerebral hemorrhage.

SUBMITTER: Lun R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7271617 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:PurposeWe develop a new risk score to predict patients with stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) who have an acute intracranial hemorrhage (ICH).MethodWe applied logistic regression to develop a new risk score called ICH-LR2S2. It was derived from examining a dataset of 70,540 ICH patients between 2015 and 2018 from the Chinese Stroke Center Alliance (CSCA). During the training of ICH-LR2S2, patients were randomly divided into two groups - 80% for the training set and 20% for model validation. A prospective test set was developed using 12,523 patients recruited in 2019. To further verify its effectiveness, we tested ICH-LR2S2 on an external dataset of 24,860 patients from the China National Stroke Registration Management System II (CNSR II). The performance of ICH-LR2S2 was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).ResultsThe incidence of SAP in the dataset was 25.52%. A 24-point ICH-LR2S2 was developed from independent predictors, including age, modified Rankin Scale, fasting blood glucose, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale admission score, Glasgow Coma Scale score, C-reactive protein, dysphagia, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, and current smoking. The results showed that ICH-LR2S2 achieved an AUC = 0.749 [95% CI 0.739-0.759], which outperforms the best baseline ICH-APS (AUC = 0.704) [95% CI 0.694-0.714]. Compared with the previous ICH risk scores, ICH-LR2S2 incorporates fasting blood glucose and C-reactive protein, improving its discriminative ability. Machine learning methods such as XGboost (AUC = 0.772) [95% CI 0.762-0.782] can further improve our prediction performance. It also performed well when further validated by the external independent cohort of patients (n = 24,860), ICH-LR2S2 AUC = 0.784 [95% CI 0.774-0.794].ConclusionICH-LR2S2 accurately distinguishes SAP patients based on easily available clinical features. It can help identify high-risk patients in the early stages of diseases.

Project description:Background and purposeSeizures commonly occur in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Anticonvulsants are commonly used for preventing seizures in patients with ICH. Thus, patients with ICH at high risk of seizures must be identified. The study aims to elucidate whether double the score of cortex involvement in ICH patients can increase accuracy of CAVE score for predicting late seizures.MethodThis retrospective analysis of the medical records of surviving patients admitted between June 1, 2013, and December 31, 2019. Validated the CAVE score and modified it (CAVE2). The main outcome of patients with ICH was seizures. The first seizures occurring within 7 days after a stroke were defined as early seizures. Seizures occurring after 1 week of stroke onset, including patients who had experienced early seizures or patients who had not, were defined as late seizures. CAVE and CAVE2 scores were validated using the cohort. The accuracy and discrimination of those two scores were accessed by the area under the operating characteristic curve. Akaike information criterion, integrated discrimination improvement, and continuous net reclassification improvement were used to assess the performance of the CAVE and CAVE2 scores.ResultsIn the cohort showed that late seizures occurred in 12.7% (52/408) of patients with ICH. Male sex, age > 65 years, cortex involvement, and early seizures were associated with the occurrence of late seizures, with odds ratios of 2.09, 2.04, 4.12, and 3.78, respectively. The risk rate of late seizures was 6.66% (17/255), 14.8% (17/115), and 47.4% (18/38) for CAVE scores ≤ 1, 2, and ≥ 3, and 4.6% (12/258), 18.3% (13/71), and 54.4 (20/37) for CAVE2 scores ≤ 1, 2, and ≥ 3 respectively. The C-statistics for the CAVE and CAVE2 scores were 0.73 and 0.74 respectively.ConclusionThe CAVE score can identify patients with ICH and high risk for late seizures. The CAVE can be modified by changing the score of cortex involvement to 2 points to improve accuracy in predicting late seizures in patients with ICH.

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A Delayed Modified ICH Score Outperforms Baseline Scoring in Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

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