Dataset Information

Emergent constraints on future projections of the western North Pacific Subtropical High.

ABSTRACT: The western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) is a key circulation system controlling the summer monsoon and typhoon activities over the western Pacific, but future projections of its changes remain hugely uncertain. Here we find two leading modes that account for nearly 80% intermodel spread in its future projection under a high emission scenario. They are linked to a cold-tongue-like bias in the central-eastern tropical Pacific and a warm bias beneath the marine stratocumulus, respectively. Observational constraints using sea surface temperature patterns reduce the uncertainties by 45% and indicate a robust intensification of the WNPSH due to suppressed warming in the western Pacific and enhanced land-sea thermal contrast, leading to 28% more rainfall projected in East China and 36% less rainfall in Southeast Asia than suggested by the multi-model mean. The intensification of the WNPSH implies more future monsoon rainfall and heatwaves but less typhoon landfalls over East Asia.

SUBMITTER: Chen X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7272422 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Emergent constraints on future projections of the western North Pacific Subtropical High.

Chen Xiaolong X Zhou Tianjun T Wu Peili P Guo Zhun Z Wang Minghuai M

Nature communications 20200604 1

The western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) is a key circulation system controlling the summer monsoon and typhoon activities over the western Pacific, but future projections of its changes remain hugely uncertain. Here we find two leading modes that account for nearly 80% intermodel spread in its future projection under a high emission scenario. They are linked to a cold-tongue-like bias in the central-eastern tropical Pacific and a warm bias beneath the marine stratocumulus, respectivel ...[more]

PMID: 32499522

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Project description:While primary productivity in the oligotrophic North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) is changing, the micro-size plankton community has not been evaluated in the last 4 decades, prompting a re-evaluation. We collected samples over three years (2016-2018) from depths of 10 to 200 m (n = 127), and the micro-size plankton were identified and counted to understand the heterogeneity of micro-size plankton community structure. The assemblages were consistent to the those of 4 decades ago. Dinophyceae (dinoflagellates) were the most numerically abundant, followed by Cryptophyceae and Bacillariophyceae (diatoms). The other micro-size plankton classes (Cyanophyceae, Haptophyceae, Dictyochophyceae, Euglenophyceae, and Prasinophyceae) were not always detected, whereas only Trichodesmium spp. was counted in the Cyanophyceae. Other unidentified autotrophic and heterotrophic flagellates were also significantly present, and their numeric abundance was higher than or at the same level as was that of the Dinophyceae. In the Dinophyceae, Gymnodiniaceae and Peridiniales were abundant. The chlorophyll a concentration and these class-level assemblages suggested micro-size plankton is not a major primary producer in this area. We applied generalized additive models (GAMs) and principal coordination analyses (PCoAs) to evaluate the habitats of every plankton group and the heterogeneity of the assemblages. The GAMs suggested that every classified plankton abundance showed a similar response to salinity, and we observed differences in habitats in terms of temperature and nitrate concentrations. Based on the PCoAs, we observed unique communities at the 200 m depth layer compared with those at the other sampling layers. The site scores of PCoAs indicated that the micro-size plankton assemblages are most heterogeneous at the 10 m depth layer. At such depth, diazotrophic Cyanophyceae (Trichodesmium spp.) are abundant, particularly in less-saline water. Therefore, nitrogen fixation may contribute to the heterogeneity in the abundance and assemblages in the western NPSG.

Dataset Information

Emergent constraints on future projections of the western North Pacific Subtropical High.

Publications

Emergent constraints on future projections of the western North Pacific Subtropical High.

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