Dataset Information

Independent Blinded Validation of a Tissue Systems Pathology Test to Predict Progression in Patients With Barrett's Esophagus.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

A risk prediction test was previously validated to predict progression to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE). The aim of our study was to independently validate this test to predict the risk of progression to HGD/EAC in BE patients with nondysplastic (ND), indefinite for dysplasia and low-grade dysplasia (LGD).

Methods

A single-blinded, case-control study was conducted to stratify patients with BE as low, intermediate, or high risk for progression to HGD/EAC within 5 years using a previously described risk prediction test. Patients with BE who progressed to HGD/EAC after at least 1 year (n = 58) were matched to patients undergoing surveillance without progression (n = 210, median surveillance 7 years). Baseline biopsies with subspecialist diagnoses of ND, indefinite for dysplasia, or LGD were tested in a blinded manner, and the predictive performance of the test was assessed.

Results

This risk prediction test stratified patients with BE based on progression risk with the high-risk group at 4.7-fold increased risk for HGD/EAC compared with the low-risk group (95% confidence interval 2.5-8.8, P < 0.0001). Prevalence-adjusted positive predictive value at 5 years was 23%. The high-risk class and male sex provided predictive power that was independent of pathologic diagnosis, age, segment length, and hiatal hernia. Patients with ND BE who scored high risk progressed at a higher rate (26%) than patients with subspecialist-confirmed LGD (21.8%) at 5 years.

Discussion

A risk prediction test identifies patients with ND BE who are at high risk for progression to HGD/EAC and may benefit from early endoscopic therapy or increased surveillance.

SUBMITTER: Davison JM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7274882 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background & aimsPrediction of progression risk in Barrett's esophagus (BE) may enable personalized management. We aimed to assess the adjunct value of a tissue systems pathology test (TissueCypher) performed on paraffin-embedded biopsy tissue, when added to expert pathology review in predicting incident progression, pooling individual patient-level data from multiple international studies METHODS: Demographics, clinical features, the TissueCypher risk class/score, and progression status were analyzed. Conditional logistical regression analysis was used to develop multivariable models predicting incident progression with and without the TissueCypher risk class (low, intermediate, high). Concordance (c-) statistics were calculated and compared with likelihood ratio tests to assess predictive ability of models. A risk prediction calculator integrating clinical variables and TissueCypher risk class was also developed.ResultsData from 552 patients with baseline no (n = 472), indefinite (n = 32), or low-grade dysplasia (n = 48) (comprising 152 incident progressors and 400 non-progressors) were analyzed. A high-risk test class independently predicted increased risk of progression to high-grade dysplasia/adenocarcinoma (odds ratio, 6.0; 95% confidence interval, 2.9-12.0), along with expert confirmed low-grade dysplasia (odds ratio, 2.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-7.2). Model prediction of progression with the TissueCypher risk class incorporated was significantly superior than without, in the whole cohort (c-statistic 0.75 vs 0.68; P < .0001) and the nondysplastic BE subset (c-statistic 0.72 vs 0.63; P < .0001). Sensitivity and specificity of the high risk TissueCypher class were 38% and 94%, respectively.ConclusionsAn objective tissue systems pathology test high-risk class is a strong independent predictor of incident progression in patients with BE, substantially improving progression risk prediction over clinical variables alone. Although test specificity was high, sensitivity was modest.