Dataset Information

Predicted Effects of Stopping COVID-19 Lockdown on Italian Hospital Demand.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Italy has been one of the first countries to implement mitigation measures to curb the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. There is currently a debate on when and how such measures should be loosened. To forecast the demand for hospital intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU beds for COVID-19 patients from May to September, we developed 2 models, assuming a gradual easing of restrictions or an intermittent lockdown.

Methods

We used a compartmental model to evaluate 2 scenarios: (A) an intermittent lockdown; (B) a gradual relaxation of the lockdown. Predicted ICU and non-ICU demand was compared with the peak in hospital bed use observed in April 2020.

Results

Under scenario A, while ICU demand will remain below the peak, the number of non-ICU will substantially rise and will exceed it (133%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 94-171). Under scenario B, a rise in ICU and non-ICU demand will start in July and will progressively increase over the summer 2020, reaching 95% (95% CI: 71-121) and 237% (95% CI: 191-282) of the April peak.

Conclusions

Italian hospital demand is likely to remain high in the next months. If restrictions are reduced, planning for the next several months should consider an increase in health-care resources to maintain surge capacity across the country.

SUBMITTER: Bollon J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7276503 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predicted Effects of Stopping COVID-19 Lockdown on Italian Hospital Demand.

Bollon Jordy J Paganini Matteo M Nava Consuelo Rubina CR De Vita Nello N Vaschetto Rosanna R Ragazzoni Luca L Della Corte Francesco F Barone-Adesi Francesco F

Disaster medicine and public health preparedness 20200518 5

<h4>Objectives</h4>Italy has been one of the first countries to implement mitigation measures to curb the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. There is currently a debate on when and how such measures should be loosened. To forecast the demand for hospital intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU beds for COVID-19 patients from May to September, we developed 2 models, assuming a gradual easing of restrictions or an intermittent lockdown.<h4>Methods</h4>We used a compartmental model to eval ...[more]

PMID: 32418556

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Dataset Information

Predicted Effects of Stopping COVID-19 Lockdown on Italian Hospital Demand.

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Predicted Effects of Stopping COVID-19 Lockdown on Italian Hospital Demand.

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