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Reconstructing ecological networks with noisy dynamics.

ABSTRACT: Ecosystems functioning is based on an intricate web of interactions among living entities. Most of these interactions are difficult to observe, especially when the diversity of interacting entities is large and they are of small size and abundance. To sidestep this limitation, it has become common to infer the network structure of ecosystems from time series of species abundance, but it is not clear how well can networks be reconstructed, especially in the presence of stochasticity that propagates through ecological networks. We evaluate the effects of intrinsic noise and network topology on the performance of different methods of inferring network structure from time-series data. Analysis of seven different four-species motifs using a stochastic model demonstrates that star-shaped motifs are differentially detected by these methods while rings are differentially constructed. The ability to reconstruct the network is unaffected by the magnitude of stochasticity in the population dynamics. Instead, interaction between the stochastic and deterministic parts of the system determines the path that the whole system takes to equilibrium and shapes the species covariance. We highlight the effects of long transients on the path to equilibrium and suggest a path forward for developing more ecologically sound statistical techniques.

SUBMITTER: Freilich MA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7277133 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity--demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes--affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity--positive and negative environmental fluctuations--caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp.) as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our results are applicable to metapopulation or time series data and are relevant for predicting extinction in conservation applications or the management of invasive species.

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Reconstructing ecological networks with noisy dynamics.

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