COVID-19 infection: the China and Italy perspectives.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chen J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7278221 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description: Not available
| S-BSST563 | biostudies-other
Project description:The COVID-19 has become a pandemic. The timing and nature of the COVID-19 pandemic response and control varied among the regions and from one country to the other, and their role in affecting the spread of the disease has been debated. The focus of this work is on the early phase of the disease when control measures can be most effective. We proposed a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed model (SEIR) model based on temporal moving windows to quantify COVID-19 transmission patterns and compare the temporal progress of disease spread in six representative regions worldwide: three Chinese regions (Zhejiang, Guangdong and Xinjiang) vs. three countries (South Korea, Italy and Iran). It was found that in the early phase of COVID-19 spread the disease follows a certain empirical law that is common in all regions considered. Simulations of the imposition of strong social distancing measures were used to evaluate the impact that these measures might have had on the duration and severity of COVID-19 outbreaks in the three countries. Measure-dependent transmission rates followed a modified normal distribution (empirical law) in the three Chinese regions. These rates responded quickly to the launch of the 1st-level Response to Major Public Health Emergency in each region, peaking after 1-2 days, reaching their inflection points after 10-19 days, and dropping to zero after 11-18 days since the 1st-level response was launched. By March 29th, the mortality rates were 0.08% (Zhejiang), 0.54% (Guangdong) and 3.95% (Xinjiang). Subsequent modeling simulations were based on the working assumption that similar infection transmission control measures were taken in South Korea as in Zhejiang on February 25th, in Italy as in Guangdong on February 25th, and in Iran as in Xinjiang on March 8th. The results showed that by June 15th the accumulated infection cases could have been reduced by 32.49% (South Korea), 98.16% (Italy) and 85.73% (Iran). The surface air temperature showed stronger association with transmission rate of COVID-19 than surface relative humidity. On the basis of these findings, disease control measures were shown to be particularly effective in flattening and shrinking the COVID-10 case curve, which could effectively reduce the severity of the disease and mitigate medical burden. The proposed empirical law and the SEIR-temporal moving window model can also be used to study infectious disease outbreaks worldwide.
| S-EPMC7397934 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant is capable of infecting vaccinated persons. An open question remains as to whether deficiencies in specific vaccine-elicited immune responses result in susceptibility to vaccine breakthrough infection. We investigated 55 vaccine breakthrough infection cases (mostly Delta) in Singapore, comparing them against 86 vaccinated close contacts who did not contract infection. Vaccine breakthrough cases showed lower memory B cell frequencies against SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain (RBD). Compared to plasma antibodies, antibodies secreted by memory B cells retained a higher fraction of neutralizing properties against the Delta variant. Inflammatory cytokines including IL-1β and TNF were lower in vaccine breakthrough infections than primary infection of similar disease severity, underscoring the usefulness of vaccination in preventing inflammation. This report highlights the importance of memory B cells against vaccine breakthrough, and suggests that lower memory B cell levels may be a correlate of risk for Delta vaccine breakthrough infection.
| S-SCDT-EMM-2021-15227 | biostudies-other
Project description:A statistical analysis of the corona-virus (Covid-19) infective process has been performed by a cooperative action during the period February-June 2020. A good analysis has been obtained by using an entropic model typical of phenomena where statistical entropy-negaentropy balance is expected to play a major role. A saturation value of the infected humans was observed, and the number of people potentially (asymptomatic) involved in the process was determined with an accuracy of 15% in the Italian case, as relevant example. The saturation value represents about 16% of the total (symptomatic + asymptomatic) involved population in the process. The stability of the observed saturation level with the time shows that the governmental lockdown prescriptions, guided by scientists (virologists) have been effective to contain the diffusion of the virus and the associated human mortality.
| S-EPMC7432542 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19 vaccination is allowing a progressive release of restrictions worldwide. Using a mathematical model, we assess the impact of vaccination in Italy since December 27, 2020 and evaluate prospects for societal reopening after emergence of the Delta variant. We estimate that by June 30, 2021, COVID-19 vaccination allowed the resumption of about half of pre-pandemic social contacts. In absence of vaccination, the same number of cases is obtained by resuming only about one third of pre-pandemic contacts, with about 12,100 (95% CI: 6,600-21,000) extra deaths (+27%; 95% CI: 15-47%). Vaccination offset the effect of the Delta variant in summer 2021. The future epidemic trend is surrounded by substantial uncertainty. Should a pediatric vaccine (for ages 5 and older) be licensed and a coverage >90% be achieved in all age classes, a return to pre-pandemic society could be envisioned. Increasing vaccination coverage will allow further reopening even in absence of a pediatric vaccine.
| S-EPMC8671442 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: The COVID-19 pandemic drastically impacted on family life and may have caused parental distress, which in turn may result in an overreliance on less effective parenting practices. Objective: The aim of the current study was to identify risk and protective factors associated with impaired parenting during the COVID-19 lockdown. Key factors predicting maternal harsh discipline were examined in China, Italy, and the Netherlands, using a cross-validation approach, with a particular focus on the role of allomaternal support from father and grandparents as a protective factor in predicting maternal harshness. Methods: The sample consisted of 900 Dutch, 641 Italian, and 922 Chinese mothers (age M = 36.74, SD = 5.58) who completed an online questionnaire during the lockdown. Results: Although marital conflict and psychopathology were shared risk factors predicting maternal harsh parenting in each of the three countries, cross-validation identified a unique risk factor model for each country. In the Netherlands and China, but not in Italy, work-related stressors were considered risk factors. In China, support from father and grandparents for mothers with a young child were protective factors. Conclusions: Our results indicate that the constellation of factors predicting maternal harshness during COVID-19 is not identical across countries, possibly due to cultural variations in support from fathers and grandparents. This information will be valuable for the identification of at-risk families during pandemics. Our findings show that shared childrearing can buffer against risks for harsh parenting during COVID-19. Hence, adopting approaches to build a pandemic-proof community of care may help at-risk parents during future pandemics.
| S-EPMC8455908 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been a worldwide public health emergency that has put great pressure on medical workers and the medical system. General Practitioners (GPs) played an important role in controlling the epidemic, and GP trainees also took an active part in this approach. This study was to explore Chinese GP trainees' career perspectives after COVID-19.MethodsWe conducted a qualitative research study which included 12 GP trainees from three teaching hospitals in China. Semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted. Grounded theory and thematic analysis were used to code the data and identify categories and factors.ResultsEleven participants chose to continue a GP career after COVID-19, and nearly half of the participants strengthened their determination to dedicate themselves to this career. Only one participant decided to change the career choice because of interest in another specialty. Four main themes influencing GP trainees' perceptions of career development after COVID-19 emerged from the interviews: changes of GPs' work content in COVID-19, challenges of being a GP, psychological changes of the career, how to provide better primary care. Although some negative psychological changes existed, most of participants were inspired by role models and medical colleagues. They had more in-depth understanding of GPs' role and responsibility during COVID-19, and exhibited intensions for self-improvement in career development, especially in public health education and self-protection in preventing infectious diseases. In addition, the wide use of telemedicine provided a new work way for GP trainees. However, challenges, such as increased workloads, low income, lack of resources in primary medical institutions, and distrust of GPs are faced by trainees during the outbreak.ConclusionsOverall, no substantial changes were seen in the career choice of GP trainees after COVID-19 outbreak. However, they were inspired and had an in-depth understanding about the GP's work and responsibility during an epidemic. Owing to the challenges faced by the GPs, measures are needed to improve the GP education and work environment in the training phase.
| S-EPMC7797889 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The safety of minimally invasive procedures during COVID pandemic remains hotly debated, especially in a country, like Italy, where minimally invasive techniques have progressively and pervasively entered clinical practice, in both the hepatobiliary and pancreatic community. A nationwide snapshot of the management of HPB minimally invasive surgery activity during COVID-19 pandemic is provided: a survey was developed and conducted within AICEP (Italian Association of HepatoBilioPancreatic Surgeons) with the final aim of conveying the experience, knowledge, and opinions into a unitary report enabling more efficient crisis management. Results from the survey (81 respondents) show that, in Italian hospitals, minimally invasive surgery maintains its role despite the COVID-19 pandemic, with the registered reduction of cases being proportional to the overall reduction of the HPB surgical activity. Respondents agree that the switch from minimally invasive to open technique can be considered as a valid option for cases with a high technical complexity. Several issues merit specific attention: screening for virus positivity should be universally performed; only expert surgical teams should operate on positive patients and specific technical measures to lower the biological risk of contamination during surgery must be followed. Future studies specifically designed to establish the true risks in minimally invasive surgery are suggested. Furthermore, a standard and univocal process of prioritization of patients from Regional Healthcare Systems is advisable.
| S-EPMC7259429 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGeneralized restriction of movement due to the COVID-19 pandemic, together with unprecedented pressure on the health system, has disrupted routine care for non-COVID-19 patients. Telemedicine should be vigorously promoted to reduce the risk of infections and to offer medical assistance to restricted patients.ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to understand physicians' attitudes toward and perspectives of telemedicine during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, in order to provide support for better implementation of telemedicine.MethodsWe surveyed all physicians (N=148), from October 17 to 25, 2020, who attended the clinical informatics PhD program at West China Medical School, Sichuan University, China. The physicians came from 57 hospitals in 16 provinces (ie, municipalities) across China, 54 of which are 3A-level hospitals, two are 3B-level hospitals, and one is a 2A-level hospital.ResultsAmong 148 physicians, a survey response rate of 87.2% (129/148) was attained. The average age of the respondents was 35.6 (SD 3.9) years (range 23-48 years) and 67 out of 129 respondents (51.9%) were female. The respondents come from 37 clinical specialties in 55 hospitals located in 14 provinces (ie, municipalities) across Eastern, Central, and Western China. A total of 94.6% (122/129) of respondents' hospitals had adopted a telemedicine system; however, 34.1% (44/129) of the physicians had never used a telemedicine system and only 9.3% (12/129) used one frequently (≥1 time/week). A total of 91.5% (118/129) and 88.4% (114/129) of physicians were willing to use telemedicine during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, respectively. Physicians considered the inability to examine patients in person to be the biggest concern (101/129, 78.3%) and the biggest barrier (76/129, 58.9%) to implementing telemedicine.ConclusionsTelemedicine is not yet universally available for all health care needs and has not been used frequently by physicians in this study. However, the willingness of physicians to use telemedicine was high. Telemedicine still has many problems to overcome.
| S-EPMC8171288 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We statistically investigate the Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic, which became particularly invasive in Italy in March 2020. We show that the high apparent lethality or case fatality ratio (CFR) observed in Italy, as compared with other countries, is likely biased by a strong underestimation of the number of infection cases. To give a more realistic estimate of the lethality of COVID-19, we use the actual (March 2020) estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR) of the pandemic based on the minimum observed CFR and analyze data obtained from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, a good representation of a "laboratory" case-study from an isolated system in which all the people have been tested. From such analyses, we derive more realistic estimates of the real extent of the infection as well as more accurate indicators of how fast the infection propagates. We then isolate the dominant factors causing the abnormal severity of the disease in Italy. Finally, we use the death count-the only data estimated to be reliable enough-to predict the total number of people infected and the interval of time when the infection in Italy could end.
| S-EPMC7291160 | biostudies-literature