Dataset Information

Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama) in China under climate change scenarios.

ABSTRACT: Climate change significantly affects geographic distribution of plants pests and diseases worldwide. Understanding the influence of future climate change on the suitable areas of Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama) in our country and taking timely countermeasures are crucial for improving the effectiveness of control of pest. Based on the occurrence points of D. citri and the selected environmental variables, the potential suitable areas of this pest under climate change scenarios in China were predicted by using MaxEnt and GIS tools. Our results showed that the higly suitable area were mainly located in Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Southern Zhejiang, Southern Jiangxi, Eastern Hunan, Southwestern Guizhou, and the area was 43.7?×?10⁴ km². Areas of moderate and low suitability were centered on areas of high suitability and radiate to the North successively, with an area of 59.28?×?10⁴ km² and 93.46?×?10⁴ km² respectively. From current to 2070?s, the areas of the highly suitable areas will increase, and the geometric center of the highly and total suitable areas will move to north under three climate change scenarios.

SUBMITTER: Wang R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7280263 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama) in China under climate change scenarios.

Wang Rulin R Yang Hua H Wang Mingtian M Zhang Zhe Z Huang Tingting T Wen Gang G Li Qing Q

Scientific reports 20200608 1

Climate change significantly affects geographic distribution of plants pests and diseases worldwide. Understanding the influence of future climate change on the suitable areas of Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama) in our country and taking timely countermeasures are crucial for improving the effectiveness of control of pest. Based on the occurrence points of D. citri and the selected environmental variables, the potential suitable areas of this pest under climate change scenarios in China were predicte ...[more]

PMID: 32513980

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Project description:Desert locusts are notorious for their widespread distribution and strong destructive power. Their influence extends from the vast arid and semiarid regions of western Africa to northwestern India. Large-scale locust outbreaks can have devastating consequences for food security, and their social impact may be long-lasting. Climate change has increased the uncertainty of desert locust outbreaks, and predicting suitable habitats for this species under climate change scenarios will help humans deal with the potential threat of locust outbreaks. By comprehensively considering climate, soil, and terrain variables, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential habitats of solitary desert locusts in the 2050s and 2070s under the four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in the CMIP6 model. The modeling results show that the average area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) reached 0.908 ± 0.002 and 0.701, respectively, indicating that the MaxEnt model performed extremely well and provided outstanding prediction results. The prediction results indicate that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of the potential habitat of solitary desert locusts. With the increase in radiative forcing overtime, the suitable areas for desert locusts will continue to contract, especially in the 2070s under the SSP585 scenario, and the moderately and highly suitable areas will decrease by 0.88 × 106 km2 and 1.55 × 106 km2, respectively. Although the potentially suitable area for desert locusts is contracting, the future threat posed by the desert locust to agricultural production and food security cannot be underestimated, given the combination of maintained breeding areas, frequent extreme weather events, pressure from population growth, and volatile sociopolitical environments. In conclusion, methods such as monitoring and early warning, financial support, regional cooperation, and scientific prevention and control of desert locust plagues should be further implemented.

Project description:Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae), commonly known as Asian citrus psyllid (ACP), is an invasive insect pest and the vector of the bacterium causing Huanglongbing (HLB), a lethal disease of citrus. In the United States, ACP has been established in all citrus-producing zones, all of which have different environmental conditions. The spread of ACP and, more importantly, HLB, has progressed differently depending on the state, with more rapid spread in Florida and Texas than in California. Climatic variations between the regions are likely a strong factor in the difference in the rate of spread. Despite this, it is unknown how the flight capacity of D. citri is influenced by high temperatures (>30 °C) and subsequently, low humidity experienced in California but not in Texas or Florida. In this study, by using a custom-made, temperature-controlled flight mill arena, we assessed the effect of high temperatures on the flight capacity and flight propensity of D. citri under low (20-40%) and high (76-90%) relative humidity conditions. We found that temperature and humidity influence the propensity to engage in short or long-distance flight events. Psyllids exposed to temperatures above 43 °C only performed short flights (˂60 s), and a high relative humidity significantly decrease the proportion of long flights (≥60 s) at 26 and 40 °C. The flight capacity for insects who engaged in short and long flights was significantly affected by temperature but not by humidity. For long flyers, temperature (in the 26-43 °C range) was negatively correlated with distance flown and flight duration. The most favorable temperature for long dispersion was 26 °C, with suboptimal temperatures in the range of 32-37 °C and the least favorable temperatures at 40 and 43 °C. In conclusion, D. citri is able to fly in a broad range of temperatures and efficiently fly in high and low humidity. However, temperatures above 40 °C, similar to those experienced in semi-arid environments like Southern California or Arizona, are detrimental for its flight capacity.

Project description:BackgroundCitrus huanglongbing (HLB) is a destructive disease of citrus and a major threat to the citrus industry around the world. This disease accounts for substantial economic losses in China every year. Diaphorina citri Kuwayama is one of the major vectors by which citrus HLB is spread under natural conditions in China. Research is needed to identify the geographic distribution of D. citri and its major areas of occurrence and to formulate measures for early warning, monitoring, and control of this pest and citrus HLB.MethodsIn this study, the ecological niche modelling software MaxEnt (maximum entropy model) was combined with ArcGIS (a geographic information system) to predict the potential geographic distribution of D. citri in China. Key environmental factors and the appropriate ranges of their values were also investigated.ResultsOur results show that the training data provided a good forecast (AUCmean = 0.988). The highly suitable areas for D. citri in China are mainly concentrated to the south of the Yangtze River, and the total area is 139.83 × 104 km2. The area of the moderately suitable areas is 27.71 × 104 km2, with a narrower distribution than that of the highly suitable area. The important environmental factors affecting the distribution of D. citri were min temperature of coldest month, mean temperature of coldest quarter, precipitation of wettest quarter, mean temperature of warmest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, max temperature of warmest month, and temperature seasonality. These results provide a valuable theoretical basis for risk assessments and control of D. citri.DiscussionThe predicted results showed that there were highly suitable areas for D. citri in Chongqing, Hubei, Anhui, and Jiangsu. Therefore, the possibility exists for the further spread of D. citri in China in the future. Extreme temperature variables, especially the min temperature of the coldest month, play an important role in the distribution of D. citri and are most closely related to the distribution of D. citri.

Dataset Information

Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama) in China under climate change scenarios.

Publications

Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama) in China under climate change scenarios.

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