Dataset Information

A Retrospective Assessment of Temperature Trends in Northern Europe Reveals a Deep Impact on the Life Cycle of Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae).

ABSTRACT: : This study modelled the changes in the development processes of the health-threatening tick Ixodes ricinus in Northern Europe as driven by the trends of temperature (1950-2018). We used the ECA&D dataset to calculate the annual accumulated temperature to obtain the development rates of the oviposition, incubation, larva-nymph, and nymph-adult molts. Annual values were used to ascertain the trend in development rates of each stage. The ecological classification of Northern Europe (LANMAP2) was used to summarize results. The temperature in 1950-2018 clearly increased in the target territory. The development rates of every tested life cycle process were faster along the time series. Faster oviposition and incubation rates resulted in central Sweden, Baltic countries, and parts of Finland. Faster molting rates were observed in the same territories and in large areas of Western Norway. The trend of temperature in the period 1950-2018 shows a consistent inflection point around 1990, demonstrating that the increased annual accumulated temperature has a deeper impact on the life cycle of I. ricinus since approximately 1990. Faster development rates could be part of the processes driving the reported spread of the tick in the target area and should be considered as a serious threat to human health.

SUBMITTER: Estrada-Pena A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7281221 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A Retrospective Assessment of Temperature Trends in Northern Europe Reveals a Deep Impact on the Life Cycle of <i>Ixodes ricinus</i> (Acari: Ixodidae).

Estrada-Peña Agustin A Fernández-Ruiz Natalia N

Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) 20200501 5

<b>:</b> This study modelled the changes in the development processes of the health-threatening tick Ixodes ricinus in Northern Europe as driven by the trends of temperature (1950-2018). We used the ECA&D dataset to calculate the annual accumulated temperature to obtain the development rates of the oviposition, incubation, larva-nymph, and nymph-adult molts. Annual values were used to ascertain the trend in development rates of each stage. The ecological classification of Northern Europe (LANMAP ...[more]

PMID: 32370062

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Project description:This study addresses the modifications that future climate conditions could impose on the transmission cycles of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. by the tick Ixodes ricinus in Europe. Tracking the distribution of foci of a zoonotic agent transmitted by vectors as climate change shapes its spatial niche is necessary to issue self-protection measures for the human population. We modeled the current distribution of the tick and its predicted contact rates with 18 species of vertebrates known to act as reservoirs of the pathogen. We approached an innovative way for estimating the possibility of permanent foci of Borrelia afzelii or Borrelia garinii tracking separately the expected spatial overlap among ticks and reservoirs for these pathogens in Europe. Environmental traits were obtained from MODIS satellite images for the years 2002-2017 (baseline) and projected on scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050. The ratio between MODIS baseline/current interpolated climatologies (WorldClim), and the ratio between MODIS-projected year 2050 with five climate change scenarios for that year (WorldClim) revealed no significant differences, meaning that projections from MODIS are reliable. Models predict that contact rates between the tick and reservoirs of either B. garinii or B. afzelii are spatially different because those have different habitats overlap. This is expected to promote different distribution patterns because of the different responses of both groups of reservoirs to environmental variables. Models for 2030 predict an increase in latitude, mainly in the circulation of B. garinii, with large areas of expected permanent contact between vector and reservoirs in Nordic countries and central Europe. However, climate projections for the year 2050 predict an unexpected scenario of contact disruption. Though large areas in Europe would be suitable for circulation of the pathogens, the predicted lack of niche overlap among ticks and reservoirs could promote a decrease in permanent foci. This development represents a proof-of-concept for the power of jointly modeling both the vector and reservoirs in a common framework. A deeper understanding of the unanticipated result regarding the year 2050 is needed.

Dataset Information

A Retrospective Assessment of Temperature Trends in Northern Europe Reveals a Deep Impact on the Life Cycle of Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae).

Publications

A Retrospective Assessment of Temperature Trends in Northern Europe Reveals a Deep Impact on the Life Cycle of <i>Ixodes ricinus</i> (Acari: Ixodidae).

Similar Datasets

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