Associations Among Self-reported Physical Activity, Coronary Artery Calcium Scores, and Mortality Risk in Older Adults.
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ABSTRACT: Objective
To assess whether self-reported physical activity during daily life reduces the mortality risk associated with atherosclerotic burden, as measured by coronary artery calcium (CAC) scanning.Methods
We assessed 2318 patients aged 65 to 84 years who underwent CAC scanning from August 31, 1998, through November 16, 2016, and had daily life physical activity assessed by a single-item question that was used to divide patients by low, moderate, and high physical activity levels. Patients were followed for a mean ± SD of 10.6±4.9 years for the occurrence of all-cause mortality.Results
The results indicated a graded relationship between the magnitude of CAC abnormality and mortality and an inverse relationship between physical activity and mortality. Of patients with low CAC scores (0-99), those with low, moderate, and high physical activity levels had similarly low mortality rates. Of patients with high CAC scores (≥400), however, there was a stepwise increase in mortality with decreasing physical activity. Patients with CAC scores of 400 or greater but reporting high physical activity had a mortality rate that was similar vs that observed in patients with CAC scores of only 0 to 99 and low physical activity (19.9 vs 16.3 per 1000 person-years; P=.60).Conclusion
Combining CAC score with self-reported physical activity level provides a synergistic means for predicting clinical risk in older patients, with high physical activity level substantially attenuating the mortality risk associated with elevated CAC scores. Moreover, the useful prognostic information afforded by just a single-item physical activity questionnaire supports current initiatives to make such assessments into a "fifth vital sign."
SUBMITTER: Rozanski A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7283959 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Rationale & Objective:Timely recognition of functional decline in older adults receiving dialysis will allow clinicians to pursue interventions to prevent further disability and/or lead patient-centered goals of care discussions. Annual change in the 12-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12) physical component score (PCS) could identify patients with functional decline. Our objectives were to assess SF-12 PCS change over a year, risk factors associated with SF-12 PCS change, and the association of SF-12 PCS change with mortality in a survivor cohort of older adults receiving dialysis. Study Design:Retrospective study. Setting & Participants:1,371 adults 65 years or older receiving hemodialysis for 6 or more months who completed SF-12 PCSs 300 or more days apart from 2012 to 2013. Exposures:Serum albumin level; hemodialysis access type; SF-12 PCS change (for mortality analyses). Outcomes:SF-12 PCS change and mortality. Analytical Approach:Multivariable-adjusted linear regression model; Cox proportional hazards model. Results:We excluded 24% (n = 801) of our cohort for death before the second SF-12 PCS. Among the 1,371 with sufficient SF-12 PCS data, mean age was 79.9 ± 4.5 years. Average SF-12 PCS change in 1 year was minimal (-0.9 ± 9.6), but 39.3% (n = 539) and 32.2% (n = 442) had clinically relevant SF-12 PCS decline and improvement, respectively. Albumin level and access type were not statistically associated with SF-12 PCS change. SF-12 PCS change was not associated with mortality (adjusted HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.96-1.00). Limitations:2 time points to assess SF-12 PCS change; covariate assessment only at baseline; survivor bias. Conclusions:In this cohort of older adults receiving hemodialysis, nearly one-fourth died, while among survivors, it was more common for SF-12 PCS to decline than improve in a year. Annual SF-12 PCS change was not associated with traditional risk factors for functional impairment or mortality risk. Additional research is needed to identify appropriate measures and frequency of assessment for functional decline.
| S-EPMC7380442 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVES:This study assessed the utility of the pooled cohort equation (PCE) and/or coronary artery calcium (CAC) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk assessment in smokers, especially those who were lung cancer screening eligible (LCSE). BACKGROUND:The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommended and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services currently pays for annual screening for lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography scans in a specified group of cigarette smokers. CAC can be obtained from these low-dose scans. The incremental utility of CAC for ASCVD risk stratification remains unclear in this high-risk group. METHODS:Of 6,814 MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) participants, 3,356 (49.2% of total cohort) were smokers (2,476 former and 880 current), and 14.3% were LCSE. Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazards, area under the curve, and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analyses were used to assess the association between PCE and/or CAC and incident ASCVD. Incident ASCVD was defined as coronary death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or fatal or nonfatal stroke. RESULTS:Smokers had a mean age of 62.1 years, 43.5% were female, and all had a mean of 23.0 pack-years of smoking. The LCSE sample had a mean age of 65.3 years, 39.1% were female, and all had a mean of 56.7 pack-years of smoking. After a mean of 11.1 years of follow-up 13.4% of all smokers and 20.8% of LCSE smokers had ASCVD events; 6.7% of all smokers and 14.2% of LCSE smokers with CAC = 0 had an ASCVD event during the follow-up. One SD increase in the PCE 10-year risk was associated with a 68% increase risk for ASCVD events in all smokers (hazard ratio: 1.68; 95% confidence interval: 1.57 to 1.80) and a 22% increase in risk for ASCVD events in the LCSE smokers (hazard ratio: 1.22; 95% confidence interval: 1.00 to 1.47). CAC was associated with increased ASCVD risk in all smokers and in LCSE smokers in all the Cox models. The C-statistic of the PCE for ASCVD was higher in all smokers compared with LCSE smokers (0.693 vs. 0.545). CAC significantly improved the C-statistics of the PCE in all smokers but not in LCSE smokers. The event and nonevent net reclassification improvements for all smokers and LCSE smokers were 0.018 and -0.126 versus 0.16 and -0.196, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:In this well-characterized, multiethnic U.S. cohort, CAC was predictive of ASCVD in all smokers and in LCSE smokers but modestly improved discrimination over and beyond the PCE. However, 6.7% of all smokers and 14.2% of LCSE smokers with CAC = 0 had an ASCVD event during follow-up.
| S-EPMC6085167 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThis study compared risk discrimination for the prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths for the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE), the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) Risk Score (with and without coronary artery calcium [CAC]), and of simple addition of CAC to the PCE.BackgroundThe PCE predict 10-year risk of atherosclerotic CVD events, and the MESA Risk Score predicts risk of CHD. Their comparative performance for the prediction of fatal events is poorly understood.MethodsWe evaluated 53,487 patients ages 45 to 79 years from the CAC Consortium, a retrospective cohort study of asymptomatic individuals referred for clinical CAC scoring. Risk discrimination was measured using C-statistics.ResultsMean age was 57 years, 35% were women, and 39% had CAC of 0. There were 421 CHD and 775 CVD deaths over a mean 12-year follow-up. In the overall study population, discrimination with the MESA Risk Score with CAC and the PCE was almost identical for both outcomes (C-statistics: 0.80 and 0.79 for CHD death, 0.77 and 0.78 for CVD death, respectively). Addition of CAC to the PCE improved risk discrimination, yielding the largest C-statistics. The MESA Risk Score with CAC and the PCE plus CAC showed the best discrimination among the 45% of patients with 5% to 20% estimated risk. Secondary analyses by estimated CVD risk strata showed modestly improved risk discrimination with CAC also among low- and high-estimated risk groups.ConclusionsOur findings support the current guideline recommendation to use, among available risk scores, the PCE for initial risk assessment and to use CAC for further risk assessment in a broad borderline and intermediate risk group. Also, in select individuals at low or high estimated risk, CAC modestly improved discrimination. Studies in unselected populations will lead to further understanding of the potential value of tools combining risk scores and CAC for optimal risk assessment.
| S-EPMC7343587 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND AND AIMS:Left main (LM) coronary artery disease is associated with greater myocardial infarction-related mortality, however, coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring does not account for disease location. We explored whether LM CAC predicts excess mortality in asymptomatic adults. METHODS:Cause-specific cardiovascular and all-cause mortality was studied in 28,147 asymptomatic patients with non-zero CAC scores in the CAC Consortium. Multivariate regression was performed to evaluate if the presence and burden of LM CAC predict mortality after adjustment for clinical risk factors and the Agatston CAC score. We further analyzed the per-unit hazard associated with LM CAC in comparison to CAC in other arteries. RESULTS:The study population had mean age of 58.3?±?10 years and CAC score of 301?±?631. LM CAC was present in 21.7% of the cases. During 312,398 patient-years of follow-up, 1,907 deaths were observed. LM CAC was associated with an increased burden of clinical risk factors and total CAC, and was independently predictive of increased hazard for all-cause (HR 1.2 [1.1, 1.3]) and cardiovascular disease death (HR 1.3 [1.1, 1.5]). The hazard for death increased proportionate to the percentage of CAC localized to the LM. On a per-100 Agatston unit basis, LM CAC was associated with a 6-9% incremental hazard for death beyond knowledge of CAC in other arteries. CONCLUSIONS:The presence and high burden of left main CAC are independently associated with a 20-30% greater hazard for cardiovascular and total mortality in asymptomatic adults, arguing that LM CAC should be routinely noted in CAC score reports when present.
| S-EPMC6599487 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Influenza challenge trials are important for vaccine efficacy testing. Currently, disease severity is determined by self-reported scores to a list of symptoms which can be highly subjective. A more objective measure would allow for improved data analysis. Twenty one volunteers participated in an influenza challenge trial. We calculated the Daily Sum of Scores (DSS) for a list of 16 influenza symptoms. Whole blood collected at baseline and 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours post challenge was profiled on Illumina HT12v4 microarrays. We selected 19 genes with the largest fold change to train a random forest model with out of bag sampling cross validation. We observed good concordance between predicted and actual scores in an independent test set (overall Pearson correlation, r = 0.57; RMSE = -16.1%).
2017-06-10 | GSE90732 | GEO
Project description:BACKGROUND:Coronary artery calcium (CAC) has been shown in multiple populations to predict atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. However, its predictive value in Asian-Americans is poorly described. PATIENTS AND METHODS:We studied 1621 asymptomatic Asian-Americans in the CAC Consortium, a large multicenter retrospective cohort. CAC was modeled in categorical (CAC = 0; CAC = 1-99; CAC = 100-399; CAC ? 400) and continuous [ln (CAC + 1)] forms. Participants were followed over a mean follow-up of 12 ± 4 years for coronary heart disease (CHD) death, cardiovascular disease (CVD) death, and all-cause mortality. The predictive value of CAC for individual outcomes was assessed using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and reported as hazard ratios (95% confidence interval). RESULTS:The mean (SD) age of the population was 54 (11.2) years and 64% were men. The mean 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score was 8%. Approximately half had a CAC score of 0, whereas 22.5% had a CAC score of greater than 100. A total of 56 deaths (16 CVD and 8 CHD) were recorded, with no CVD or CHD deaths in the CAC = 0 group. We noted a significantly increased risk of CHD [hazard ratio (HR): 2.6 (1.5-4.3)] and CVD [HR: 2.3 (1.8-2.9)] mortality per unit increase in In (CAC + 1). Compared to those with CAC scores of 0, individuals with CAC scores of at least 400 had over a three-fold increased risk of all-cause mortality [HR: 3.3 (1.3-8.6)]. CONCLUSION:Although Asian-Americans are a relatively low-risk group, CAC strongly predicts CHD, CVD, and all-cause mortality beyond traditional risk factors. These findings may help address existing knowledge gaps in CVD risk prediction in Asian-Americans.
| S-EPMC6825877 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceThe interplay of self-rated health (SRH), coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores, and cardiovascular risk is poorly described.ObjectivesTo assess the degree of correlation between SRH and CAC, to determine whether these measures are complementary for risk prediction, and to assess the incremental value of the addition of SRH to established risk tools.Design, setting, and participantsThe Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) is a large population-based prospective cohort study of adults aged 45 to 84 years who were recruited from 6 US communities. A total of 6764 participants without baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD) were included in the analysis. Data were collected from July 2000 through August 2002. Follow-up was completed by December 2013, and data were analyzed from October 2018 to December 2018.ExposuresThe EVGGFP (excellent, very good, good, fair, and poor) self-assessment of overall health (assessed before the baseline study examination) and CAC score. The EVGGFP rating was categorized as poor/fair, good, very good, or excellent.Main outcomes and measuresHard coronary heart disease (CHD) events, hard CVD events, and all-cause mortality during a median follow-up of 13.2 years (interquartile range, 12.7-13.7 years).ResultsAmong the study population of 6764 participants, the mean (SD) age was 62.1 (10.2) years, and 52.9% were women. The EVGGFP rating was strongly associated with age, sex, race/ethnicity, educational and income levels, healthy diet and physical activity, and cardiovascular risk factors. Despite encapsulating many risk variables, no correlation (r = -0.007; P = .57) or association between EVGGFP and the presence (χ2 = 0.84; P = .84) or severity (χ2 = 4.64; P = .86) of CAC was found. During follow-up, 1161 deaths, 637 hard CVD events, and 405 hard CHD events were recorded. In models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and CAC, participants who reported excellent health had a 45% lower risk of CVD (hazard ratio [HR], 0.55; 95% CI, 0.39-0.77) and a 42% lower risk of CHD (HR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.37-0.90) compared with those who reported poor/fair health. Participants in the excellent SRH category who had any CAC had markedly elevated risk of hard CHD (HR, 6.19; 95% CI, 2.1-18.3) and CVD (HR, 6.50; 95% CI, 2.7-15.6) events compared with those with a CAC score of 0. The addition of the EVGGFP rating to CAC improved the area under the curve (C statistic) for CHD events (0.725 vs 0.734; P = .007), CVD events (0.693 vs 0.706; P < .001), and all-cause mortality (0.685 vs 0.707; P < .001). However, the addition of the EVGGFP rating to the combination of CAC and atherosclerotic CVD risk score did not significantly improve C statistics for CHD events (0.751 vs 0.753; P = .39), CVD events (0.739 vs 0.741; P = .18), or all-cause mortality (0.779 vs 0.781; P = .13).Conclusions and relevanceAlthough SRH and CAC integrate many risk variables, this study suggests that they are poorly correlated and have complementary predictive utility. A perception of excellent health does not obviate the need for definitive assessment of CVD risk, whereas fair/poor perceived health may serve as a risk enhancer, arguing for advanced risk assessment in selected clinical scenarios.
| S-EPMC6484585 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background Coronary artery calcium (CAC) predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) events; however, less is known about how its prognostic implications vary by race/ethnicity. Methods and Results A total of 38 277 whites, 1621 Asians, 977 blacks, and 1349 Hispanics from the CAC Consortium (mean age 55 years, 35% women) were followed over a median of 11.7 years. Modeling CAC in continuous and categorical (CAC=0; CAC 1-99; CAC 100-399; CAC ≥400) forms, we assessed its predictive value for all-cause and CVD mortality by race/ethnicity using Cox proportional hazards and Fine and Gray competing-risk regression, respectively. We also assessed the impact of race/ethnicity on risk within individual CAC strata, using whites as the reference. Models were adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Increased CAC was associated with higher total and CVD mortality risk in all race/ethnicity groups, including Asians. However, the risk gradient with increasing CAC was more pronounced in blacks and Hispanics. In Fine and Gray subdistribution hazards models adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and CAC (continuous), blacks (subdistribution hazard ratio 3.4, 95% confidence interval, 2.5-4.8) and Hispanics (subdistribution hazard ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval, 1.6-3.2) showed greater risk of CVD mortality when compared with whites, while Asians had risk similar to whites. These race/ethnic differences persisted when CAC=0. Conclusions CAC predicts all-cause and CVD mortality in all studied race/ethnicity groups, including Asians and Hispanics, who may be poorly represented by the Pooled Cohort Equations. Blacks and Hispanics may have greater mortality risk compared with whites and Asians after adjusting for atherosclerosis burden, with potential implications for US race/ethnic healthcare disparities research.
| S-EPMC6474975 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMyocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) is an accurate noninvasive test for patients with suspected obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) and coronary artery calcium (CAC) score is known to be a powerful predictor of cardiovascular events. Collection of CAC scores simultaneously with MPI is unexplored.AimWe aimed to investigate whether automatically derived CAC scores during myocardial perfusion imaging would further improve the diagnostic accuracy of MPI to detect obstructive CAD.MethodsWe analyzed 150 consecutive patients without a history of coronary revascularization with suspected obstructive CAD who were referred for 82Rb PET/CT and available coronary angiographic data. Myocardial perfusion was evaluated both semi quantitatively as well as quantitatively according to the European guidelines. CAC scores were automatically derived from the low-dose attenuation correction CT scans using previously developed software based on deep learning. Obstructive CAD was defined as stenosis >70% (or >50% in the left main coronary artery) and/or fractional flow reserve (FFR) ≤0.80.ResultsIn total 58% of patients had obstructive CAD of which seventy-four percent were male. Addition of CAC scores to MPI and clinical predictors significantly improved the diagnostic accuracy of MPI to detect obstructive CAD. The area under the curve (AUC) increased from 0.87 to 0.91 (p: 0.025). Sensitivity and specificity analysis showed an incremental decrease in false negative tests with our MPI + CAC approach (n = 14 to n = 4), as a consequence an increase in false positive tests was seen (n = 11 to n = 28).ConclusionCAC scores collected simultaneously with MPI improve the detection of obstructive coronary artery disease in patients without a history of coronary revascularization.
| S-EPMC6872848 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) is a sign of advanced atherosclerosis and an independent risk factor for cardiac events. Here, we describe CAC-distributions in an unselected aged population and compare modelling methods to characterize CAC-distribution. CAC is difficult to model because it has a skewed and zero inflated distribution with over-dispersion. Data are from the AGES-Reykjavik sample, a large population based study [2002-2006] in Iceland of 5,764 persons aged 66-96 years. Linear regressions using logarithmic- and Box-Cox transformations on CAC+1, quantile regression and a Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial model (ZINB) were applied. Methods were compared visually and with the PRESS-statistic, R(2) and number of detected associations with concurrently measured variables. There were pronounced differences in CAC according to sex, age, history of coronary events and presence of plaque in the carotid artery. Associations with conventional coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors varied between the sexes. The ZINB model provided the best results with respect to the PRESS-statistic, R(2), and predicted proportion of zero scores. The ZINB model detected similar numbers of associations as the linear regression on ln(CAC+1) and usually with the same risk factors.
| S-EPMC3746182 | biostudies-literature