Dataset Information

Estimating the contribution of different age strata to vaccine serotype pneumococcal transmission in the pre vaccine era: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Herd protection through interruption of transmission has contributed greatly to the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) and may enable the use of cost-saving reduced dose schedules. To aid PCV age targeting to achieve herd protection, we estimated which population age groups contribute most to vaccine serotype (VT) pneumococcal transmission.

Methods

We used transmission dynamic models to mirror pre-PCV epidemiology in England and Wales, Finland, Kilifi in Kenya and Nha Trang in Vietnam where data on carriage prevalence in infants, pre-school and school-aged children and adults as well as social contact patterns was available. We used Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to fit the models and then extracted the per capita and population-based contribution of different age groups to VT transmission.

Results

We estimated that in all settings, ConclusionVaccine protection of pre-school children is key for PCV herd immunity. However, in high transmission settings, school-aged children may substantially contribute to transmission and likely have waned much of their PCV protection under currently recommended schedules.

SUBMITTER: Flasche S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7285529 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Estimating the contribution of different age strata to vaccine serotype pneumococcal transmission in the pre vaccine era: a modelling study.

Flasche Stefan S Lipsitch Marc M Ojal John J Pinsent Amy A

BMC medicine 20200610 1

<h4>Background</h4>Herd protection through interruption of transmission has contributed greatly to the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) and may enable the use of cost-saving reduced dose schedules. To aid PCV age targeting to achieve herd protection, we estimated which population age groups contribute most to vaccine serotype (VT) pneumococcal transmission.<h4>Methods</h4>We used transmission dynamic models to mirror pre-PCV epidemiology in England and Wales, Finland, Kilifi in K ...[more]

PMID: 32517683

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Project description:Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected adults are at a higher risk of pneumococcal colonisation and disease, even while receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). To help evaluate potential indirect effects of vaccination of HIV-infected adults, we assessed whether HIV-infected adults disproportionately contribute to household transmission of pneumococci. We constructed a hidden Markov model to capture the dynamics of pneumococcal carriage acquisition and clearance observed during a longitudinal household-based nasopharyngeal swabbing study, while accounting for sample misclassifications. Households were followed-up twice weekly for approximately 10 months each year during a three-year study period for nasopharyngeal carriage detection via real-time PCR. We estimated the effect of participant's age, HIV status, presence of a HIV-infected adult within the household and other covariates on pneumococcal acquisition and clearance probabilities. Of 1,684 individuals enrolled, 279 (16.6%) were younger children (<5 years-old) of whom 4 (1.5%) were HIV-infected and 726 (43.1%) were adults (≥18 years-old) of whom 214 (30.4%) were HIV-infected, most (173, 81.2%) with high CD4+ count. The observed range of pneumococcal carriage prevalence across visits was substantially higher in younger children (56.9-80.5%) than older children (5-17 years-old) (31.7-50.0%) or adults (11.5-23.5%). We estimate that 14.4% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 13.7-15.0) of pneumococcal-negative swabs were false negatives. Daily carriage acquisition probabilities among HIV-uninfected younger children were similar in households with and without HIV-infected adults (hazard ratio: 0.95, 95%CI: 0.91-1.01). Longer average carriage duration (11.4 days, 95%CI: 10.2-12.8 vs 6.0 days, 95%CI: 5.6-6.3) and higher median carriage density (622 genome equivalents per millilitre, 95%CI: 507-714 vs 389, 95%CI: 311.1-435.5) were estimated in HIV-infected vs HIV-uninfected adults. The use of ART and antibiotics substantially reduced carriage duration in all age groups, and acquisition rates increased with household size. Although South African HIV-infected adults on ART have longer carriage duration and density than their HIV-uninfected counterparts, they show similar patterns of pneumococcal acquisition and onward transmission.

Dataset Information

Estimating the contribution of different age strata to vaccine serotype pneumococcal transmission in the pre vaccine era: a modelling study.

Background

Methods

Results

Publications

Estimating the contribution of different age strata to vaccine serotype pneumococcal transmission in the pre vaccine era: a modelling study.

Similar Datasets

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