Tracing-corrected estimates of disengagement from HIV care and mortality among patients enrolling in HIV care without overt immunosuppression in Tanzania.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Tymejczyk O
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7286784 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Machine learning methods for health care delivery optimization have the potential to improve retention in HIV care, a critical target of global efforts to end the epidemic. However, these methods have not been widely applied to medical record data in low- and middle-income countries. We used an ensemble decision tree approach to predict risk of disengagement from HIV care (missing an appointment by ≥28 days) in Tanzania. Our approach used routine electronic medical records (EMR) from the time of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation through 24 months of follow-up for 178 adults (63% female). We compared prediction accuracy when using EMR-based predictors alone and in combination with sociodemographic survey data collected by a research study. Models that included only EMR-based indicators and incorporated changes across past clinical visits achieved a mean accuracy of 75.2% for predicting risk of disengagement in the next 6 months, with a mean sensitivity of 54.7% for targeting the 30% highest-risk individuals. Additionally including survey-based predictors only modestly improved model performance. The most important variables for prediction were time-varying EMR indicators including changes in treatment status, body weight, and WHO clinical stage. Machine learning methods applied to existing EMR data in resource-constrained settings can predict individuals’ future risk of disengagement from HIV care, potentially enabling better targeting and efficiency of interventions to promote retention in care.
| S-EPMC10021592 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Engagement in care is critical to achieving and sustaining optimal benefits of efficacious antiretroviral therapies for HIV infection. Current metrics of engagement in care, including problematic patterns of retention in care, adherence to treatment, and viral suppression, are often detected late in the disengagement process. We sought to develop and validate a patient-centered screener of engagement in care that can be used to identify deficits in patient perceptions of engagement before the development of poor outcomes, including loss to follow-up, treatment nonadherence, virologic failure, and the resulting increased likelihood of HIV-associated morbidity and mortality and onward transmission of HIV. SETTING AND METHODS:Using input from patients, providers, and researchers through in-person focus groups and an online Delphi process, we developed a self-report measure of engagement in care that was validated with 3296 patients from 7 clinics across the United States. RESULTS:Results supported a single dimension of engagement in care measured by 10 items. Lower scores on the HIV Index were related to higher depression and anxiety symptoms, greater use of alcohol and stimulants, and increased likelihood of reporting internalized HIV stigma. Higher Index scores were positively associated with self-report measures of antiretroviral therapy adherence, corroborative clinic records documenting appointment attendance, and increased likelihood of recent viral load suppression. CONCLUSIONS:The HIV Index offers promise as a patient-centered diagnostic and prognostic screener for engagement in care that can be used to trigger interventions to promote better clinical outcomes for persons living with HIV.
| S-EPMC6522296 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Improving child survival for HIV-infected children remains an important health agenda. We present progress regarding care and treatment services to HIV infected children in Tanzania.The National AIDS Control Programme Care and Treatment (CTC 2) database was used to obtain information of all children aged 0-14yearsenrolled in the HIV Care and Treatment Program between January 2011 and December 2014. We assessed eligibility for ART, time from enrolment to ART initiation, nutritional status, and mortality using Kaplan-Meier methods.A total of 29,531 (14,304 boys and 15,227 girls) ART-naive children aged 0-14 years were enrolled during the period, approximately 6700 to 8000 children per year. The male to female ratio was 48:50. At enrolment 72% were eligible for ART, 2-3% of children were positive for TB, and 2-4% were severely malnourished. Between 2011 and 2014, 2368 (8%) died, 9243 (31%) were Lost to Follow-up and 17,920 (61%) were on care or ART. The probability of death was 31% (95% CI 26-35), 43% (40-47), 52% (49-55) and 61% (58-64) by 1,2, 5 and 10 years of age, respectively. The hazard of death was greatest at very young ages (<2 years old), and decreased sharply by 4 years old. Children who were on ART had around 10-15% higher survival over time.Significant progress has been made regarding provision of paediatric HIV care and treatment in Tanzania. On average 7000 children are enrolled annually, and that approximately two thirds of children diagnosed under the age of 2 years were initiated on ART within a month. Provision of ART as soon as the child is diagnosed is the biggest factor in improving survival. However we noted that i) most children had advanced disease at the time of enrolment ii) approximately two-thirds of children were missing a baseline CD4 measurement and only 35% of children had either a CD4 count or percentage recorded, indicating limited access to CD4 testing services, and iii) 31% were lost to follow-up (LTFU). These challenges need to be addressed to improve early detection, enrolment and retention of HIV-infected children into care and improve documentation of services offered.
| S-EPMC5547461 | biostudies-other
Project description:Amazonian forests are extraordinarily diverse, but the estimated species richness is very much debated. Here, we apply an ensemble of parametric estimators and a novel technique that includes conspecific spatial aggregation to an extended database of forest plots with up-to-date taxonomy. We show that the species abundance distribution of Amazonia is best approximated by a logseries with aggregated individuals, where aggregation increases with rarity. By averaging several methods to estimate total richness, we confirm that over 15,000 tree species are expected to occur in Amazonia. We also show that using ten times the number of plots would result in an increase to just ~50% of those 15,000 estimated species. To get a more complete sample of all tree species, rigorous field campaigns may be needed but the number of trees in Amazonia will remain an estimate for years to come.
| S-EPMC7311553 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAntiretroviral therapy (ART) for persons with HIV infection prevents tuberculosis (TB) disease. Additionally, sequential ART after initiation of TB treatment improves outcomes. We examined ART use, retention in care, and viral suppression (VS) before, during, and 3 years following TB treatment for an inner-city cohort in the United States.MethodsRetrospective cohort study among persons treated for culture-confirmed TB between 2008 and 2015 at an inner-city hospital.ResultsAmong 274 persons with culture-confirmed TB, 96 (35%) had HIV co-infection, including 23 (24%) new HIV diagnoses and 73 (76%) previous diagnoses. Among those with known HIV prior to TB, the median time of known HIV was 6 years, and only 10 (14%) were on ART at the time of TB diagnosis. The median CD4 at TB diagnosis was 87 cells/uL. Seventy-four (81%) patients received ART during treatment for TB, and 47 (52%) has VS at the end of TB treatment. Only 32% of patients had continuous VS 3 years after completing TB treatment. There were 3 TB recurrences and 3 deaths post-TB treatment; none of these patients had retention or VS after TB treatment.ConclusionsAmong persons with active TB co-infected with HIV, we found that the majority had known HIV and were not on ART prior to TB diagnosis, and retention in care and VS post-TB treatment were very low. Strengthening the HIV care continuum is needed to improve HIV outcomes and further reduce rates of active TB/HIV co-infection in our and similar settings.
| S-EPMC5890473 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding the correlates of disengagement from HIV care and treatment failure during second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) could inform interventions to improve clinical outcomes among people living with HIV (PLHIV).MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of PLHIV aged >15 years who started second-line ART at a tertiary center in Nigeria between 2005 and 2017. Participants were considered to have disengaged from care if they had not returned within a year after each clinic visit. Cox proportional hazard models were used to investigate factors associated with: (1) viral failure (HIV-1 RNA >1000 copies/mL), (2) immunologic failure (CD4 count decrease or <100 cells/mm3), and (3) severe weight loss (>10% of bodyweight), after >6 months of second-line ART.ResultsAmong 1031 participants, 33% (341) disengaged from care during a median follow-up of 6.9 years (interquartile range 3.7-8.5). Of these, 26% (89/341) subsequently reentered care. Disengagement was associated with male gender, age <30 years, lower education level, and low CD4 count at second-line ART initiation. Among participants with endpoint assessments available, 20% (112/565) experienced viral failure, 32% (257/809) experienced immunologic failure, and 23% (190/831) experienced weight loss. A lower risk of viral failure was associated with professional occupations compared with elementary: adjusted hazard ratio 0.17 (95% confidence interval 0.04 to 0.70).ConclusionAdverse outcomes were common during second-line ART. However, reengagement is possible and resources should be allocated to focus on retaining PLHIV in care and providing services to trace and reengage those who have disengaged from care.
| S-EPMC8986580 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionAchieving UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets is a crucial step towards ending the AIDS epidemic. Many countries have published estimates of care cascades, although often with methodological limitations. We describe an approach that used the national HIV registry as a starting-point to determine the HIV care cascade and resulting UNAIDS 90-90-90 estimates for Singapore in 2014.MethodsHIV is a legally notifiable disease in Singapore. The anonymized HIV registry data provided for a back-calculation model from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to obtain 2014 estimates for the total number of persons living with HIV (PLHIV), and the count in the registry for proportions diagnosed with HIV and linked to care. Using additional data collected for a simple random sample from the registry, outcomes in 2015 and 2016 were ascertained retrospectively to derive proportions for those retained in care, on antiretroviral therapy, and achieved viral suppression. Findings were extrapolated to derive national estimates and UN90-90-90 estimates. Bootstrapped samples from the model and sample were used to derive 95% confidence intervals.ResultsAn estimated 6900 (95% CI 6650, 7050) persons were living with HIV and AIDS in 2014. Of these, 4948 were diagnosed with HIV, and 4820 had been linked to care. The random sample of 500 persons was further analysed, and of these, 87.2% were retained in care, 84.6% on antiretroviral therapy, and 79.6% had suppressed viral loads. The proportions of HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy and achieving viral suppression were 60.7% (95% CI 58.4, 63.6) and 57.1% (95% CI 55.0, 60.5) respectively. The corresponding UNAIDS 90-90-90 estimates were 71.7% (95% CI 70.0, 74.2) of all persons diagnosed; 84.6% (95% CI 81.6, 87.4) of diagnosed persons being on antiretroviral therapy, and 94.1% (95% CI 91.6, 96.2) of persons on therapy having achieved viral suppression.ConclusionsA national HIV registry, alongside back-calculation and additional data from a sample, can be used to estimate attainment of UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets and identify system gaps. The registry had advantages of providing a well-established, comprehensive capture of diagnosed persons and easily accessible data. The same approach can be used elsewhere if similar data are available.
| S-EPMC6658839 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVES:Studies examining engagement in HIV care often capture cross-sectional patient status to estimate retention and identify predictors of attrition, which ignore longitudinal patient care-seeking behaviors. We describe the cyclical nature of (dis)engagement and re-entry into HIV care using the state transition framework. DESIGN:We represent the dynamic patterns of patient care-retention using five states: engaged in care, missed one, two, three, or more expected visits, and deceased. Then we describe various care-seeking behaviors in terms of transitioning from one state to another (e.g. from disengaged to engaged). This analysis includes 31?009 patients enrolled in the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Systems (CNICS) in the United States from 1996 to 2014. METHOD:Multistate models for longitudinal data were used to identify barriers to retention and subgroups at higher risk of falling out of care. RESULTS:The initial 2 years following primary engagement in care were a crucial time for improving retention. Patients who had not initiated antiretroviral therapy, with lower CD4 cell counts, higher viral load, or not having an AIDS-defining illness were less likely to be retained in care. CONCLUSION:Beyond the individual patient characteristics typically used to characterize retention in HIV care, we identified specific periods of time and points in the care continuum associated with elevated risk of transitioning out of care. Our findings can contribute to evidence-based recommendations to enhance long-term retention in CNICS. This approach can also be applied to other cohort data to identify retention strategies tailored to each population.
| S-EPMC6136972 | biostudies-literature
Project description:UnlabelledHIV care and treatment settings provide an opportunity to reach people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) with prevention messages and services. Population-based surveys in sub-Saharan Africa have identified HIV risk behaviors among PLHIV, yet data are limited regarding HIV risk behaviors of PLHIV in clinical care. This paper describes the baseline sociodemographic, HIV transmission risk behaviors, and clinical data of a study evaluating an HIV prevention intervention package for HIV care and treatment clinics in Africa. The study was a longitudinal group-randomized trial in 9 intervention clinics and 9 comparison clinics in Kenya, Namibia, and Tanzania (N = 3538). Baseline participants were mostly female, married, had less than a primary education, and were relatively recently diagnosed with HIV. Fifty-two percent of participants had a partner of negative or unknown status, 24% were not using condoms consistently, and 11% reported STI symptoms in the last 6 months. There were differences in demographic and HIV transmission risk variables by country, indicating the need to consider local context in designing studies and using caution when generalizing findings across African countries. Baseline data from this study indicate that participants were often engaging in HIV transmission risk behaviors, which supports the need for prevention with PLHIV (PwP).Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT01256463.
| S-EPMC3581447 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Decentralization of HIV care is promoted to improve access to antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa. This study describes care transitions among HIV-infected persons in Northern Tanzania during a period of rapid decentralization of HIV care and treatment centers (CTCs) from hospitals to local health centers. Between November 2008 and June 2009, 492 HIV-infected patients in established care at two referral hospitals in Moshi, Tanzania, and 262 persons newly diagnosed with HIV were selected for participation in a prospective cohort study entitled Coping with HIV/AIDS in Tanzania. Clinical records and participant self-reports, collected between June and November 2012, were used to describe retention in care and transitions between CTCs during the study period. After a mean follow-up period of 3.5 years, 10% of participants had died, 9% were lost to follow-up, and 11% had moved. Of the remaining participants enrolled from CTCs, more than 90% reported at least one CTC visit during the previous six months, with 98% still in care at the CTC at which they were enrolled. Nearly three out of four newly diagnosed clients listed a referral hospital as their primary CTC. Fewer than 10% of participants ever sought care at another CTC in the study area; nearly 90% of those in care bypassed their closest CTC. Administrative data from all facilities in the study area indicate that new clients, even after the scale-up from 8 CTCs in 2006 to 21 CTCs in 2008, disproportionately selected established CTCs, and client volume at newly approved facilities was highly variable. Despite the decentralization of HIV care and treatment in this setting, many patients continue to bypass their closest CTC to seek care at established facilities. Patient preferences for decentralized HIV care, which may inform optimal resource utilization, are largely unknown and warrant further investigation.
| S-EPMC4122642 | biostudies-literature