Dataset Information

Effect of expanding opioid agonist therapies on the HIV epidemic and mortality in Ukraine: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

As HIV incidence and mortality continue to increase in eastern Europe and central Asia, particularly among people who inject drugs (PWID), it is crucial to effectively scale-up opioid agonist therapy (OAT), such as methadone or buprenorphine maintenance therapy, to optimise HIV outcomes. With low OAT coverage among PWID, we did an optimisation assessment using current OAT procurement and allocation, then modelled the effect of increased OAT scale-up on HIV incidence and mortality for 23 administrative regions of Ukraine.

Methods

We developed a linear optimisation model to estimate efficiency gains that could be achieved based on current procurement of OAT. We also developed a dynamic, compartmental population model of HIV transmission that included both injection and sexual risk to estimate the effect of OAT scale-up on HIV infections and mortality over a 10-year horizon. The compartmental population model was calibrated to HIV prevalence and incidence among PWID for 23 administrative regions of Ukraine. Sources for regional data included the SyrEx database, the Integrated Biological and Behavioral Survey, the Ukrainian Center for Socially Dangerous Disease Control of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the Public Health Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian Census.

Findings

Under a status-quo scenario (OAT coverage of 2·7% among PWID), the number of new HIV infections among PWID in Ukraine over the next 10 years was projected to increase to 58?820 (95% CI 47?968-65?535), with striking regional differences. With optimum allocation of OAT without additional increases in procurement, OAT coverage could increase from 2·7% to 3·3% by increasing OAT doses to ensure higher retention levels. OAT scale-up to 10% and 20% over 10 years would, respectively, prevent 4368 (95% CI 3134-5243) and 10?864 (7787-13?038) new HIV infections and reduce deaths by 7096 (95% CI 5078-9160) and 17?863 (12?828-23?062), relative to the status quo. OAT expansion to 20% in five regions of Ukraine with the highest HIV burden would account for 56% of new HIV infections and 49% of deaths prevented over 10 years.

Interpretation

To optimise HIV prevention and treatment goals in Ukraine, OAT must be substantially scaled up in all regions. Increased medication procurement is needed, combined with optimisation of OAT dosing. Restricting OAT scale-up to some regions of Ukraine could benefit many PWID, but the regions most affected are not necessarily those with the highest HIV burden.

Funding

National Institute on Drug Abuse.

SUBMITTER: Tan J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7289179 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Effect of expanding opioid agonist therapies on the HIV epidemic and mortality in Ukraine: a modelling study.

Tan Jiale J Altice Frederick L FL Madden Lynn M LM Zelenev Alexei A

The lancet. HIV 20191223 2

<h4>Background</h4>As HIV incidence and mortality continue to increase in eastern Europe and central Asia, particularly among people who inject drugs (PWID), it is crucial to effectively scale-up opioid agonist therapy (OAT), such as methadone or buprenorphine maintenance therapy, to optimise HIV outcomes. With low OAT coverage among PWID, we did an optimisation assessment using current OAT procurement and allocation, then modelled the effect of increased OAT scale-up on HIV incidence and mortal ...[more]

PMID: 31879250

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Project description:Background and aimsAlthough opioid agonist treatment (OAT) for opioid use disorder (OUD) is cost-effective in settings where the HIV epidemic is concentrated among people who inject drugs, OAT coverage in Ukraine remains far below internationally recommended targets. Scale-up is limited by both OAT availability and demand. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a range of plausible OAT scale-up strategies in Ukraine incorporating the potential impact of treatment spillover and the real-world demand for addiction treatment.Design, setting and participantsTen-year horizon (2016-25) modeling study of opioid addiction epidemic and treatment that accommodated potential peer effects in opioid use initiation and supply-induced treatment demand in three Ukrainian cities: Kyiv, Mykolaiv and Lviv, comprising a simulated population of people at risk of and with OUD.MeasurementsIncremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained in the simulated population.FindingsAn estimated 12.2-, 2.4- and 13.4-fold OAT capacity increase over 2016 baseline capacity in Kyiv, Mykolaiv and Lviv, respectively, would be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay of one per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) per quality-adjusted life-year gained. This result is robust to parametric and structural uncertainty. Even under the most ambitious capacity increase, OAT coverage (i.e. the proportion of people with OUD receiving OAT) over a 10-year modeling horizon would be 20, 11 and 17% in Kyiv, Mykolaiv and Lviv, respectively, owing to limited demand.ConclusionsIt is estimated that a substantial increase in opioid agonist treatment (OAT) capacity in three Ukrainian cities would be cost-effective for a wide range of willingness-to-pay thresholds. Even a very ambitious capacity increase, however, is unlikely to reach internationally recommended coverage levels. Further increases in coverage may be limited by demand and would require addressing existing structural barriers to OAT access.

Project description:IntroductionThe Eastern Europe and Central Asian (EECA) region has the highest increase in HIV incidence and mortality globally, with suboptimal HIV treatment and prevention. All EECA countries (except Russia) are low and middle-income (LMIC). While LMIC are home to 80% of all older people living with HIV (OPWH), defined as ≥50 years, extant literature observed that newly diagnosed OPWH represent the lowest proportion in EECA relative to all other global regions. We examined HIV diagnoses in OPWH in Ukraine, a country emblematic of the EECA region.MethodsWe analysed incident HIV diagnoses from 2015-2018 and mortality trends from 2016-2018 for three age groups: 1) 15-24 years; 2) 25-49 years; and 3) ≥50 years. AIDS was defined as CD4<200cells/mL. Mortality was defined as deaths per 1000 patients newly diagnosed with HIV within the same calendar year. Mortality rates were calculated for 2016, 2017, and 2018, compared to age-matched general population rates, and all-cause standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated.ResultsFrom 2015-2018, the proportion of OPWH annually diagnosed with HIV increased from 11.2% to 14.9% (p<0.01). At the time of diagnosis, OPWH were also significantly (p<0.01) more likely to have AIDS (43.8%) than those aged 25-49 years (29.5%) and 15-24 years (13.3%). Newly diagnosed OPWH had the same-year mortality ranging from 3 to 8 times higher than age-matched groups in the Ukrainian general population.ConclusionsThese findings suggest a reassessment of HIV testing, prevention and treatment strategies in Ukraine is needed to bring OPWH into focus. OPWH are more likely to present with late-stage HIV and have higher mortality rates. Re-designing testing practices is especially crucial since OPWH are absent from targeted testing programs and are increasingly diagnosed as they present with AIDS-defining symptoms. New strategies for linkage and treatment programs should reflect the distinct needs of this target population.

Project description:BackgroundOpioid agonist treatment (OAT) reduces many of the harms associated with opioid dependence. We use mathematical modelling to comprehensively evaluate the overall health benefits of OAT in people who inject drugs in Perry County (KY, USA), Kyiv (Ukraine), and Tehran (Iran).MethodsWe developed a dynamic model of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission, incarceration, and mortality through overdose, injury, suicide, disease-related and other causes. The model was calibrated to site-specific data using Bayesian methods. We evaluated preventable drug-related deaths (deaths due to HIV, HCV, overdose, suicide, or injury) averted over 2020-40 for four scenarios, added incrementally, compared with a scenario without OAT: existing OAT coverage (setting-dependent; community 4-11%; prison 0-40%); scaling up community OAT to 40% coverage; increasing average OAT duration from 4-14 months to 2 years; and scaling up prison-based OAT.OutcomesDrug-related harms contributed differentially to mortality across settings: overdose contributed 27-47% (range of median projections) of preventable drug-related deaths over 2020-40, suicide 6-17%, injury 3-17%, HIV 0-59%, and HCV 2-18%. Existing OAT coverage in Tehran (31%) could have a substantial effect, averting 13% of preventable drug-related deaths, but will have negligible effect (averting <2% of preventable drug-related deaths) in Kyiv and Perry County due to low OAT coverage (<4%). Scaling up community OAT to 40% could avert 12-24% of preventable drug-related deaths, including 13-22% of overdose deaths, with greater effect in settings with significant HIV mortality (Tehran and Kyiv). Improving OAT retention and providing prison-based OAT would have a significant additional effect, averting 27-51% of preventable drug-related deaths.InterpretationOAT can substantially reduce drug-related harms, particularly in settings with HIV epidemics in people who inject drugs. Maximising these effects requires research and investment into achieving higher coverage and provision and longer retention of OAT in prisons and the community.FundingUK National Institute for Health Research, US National Institute on Drug Abuse.

Project description:BackgroundInjection drug use (IDU) and heterosexual virus transmission both contribute to the growing mixed HIV epidemics in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In Ukraine-chosen in this study as a representative country-IDU-related risk behaviors cause half of new infections, but few injection drug users (IDUs) receive methadone substitution therapy. Only 10% of eligible individuals receive antiretroviral therapy (ART). The appropriate resource allocation between these programs has not been studied. We estimated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of strategies for expanding methadone substitution therapy programs and ART in mixed HIV epidemics, using Ukraine as a case study.Methods and findingsWe developed a dynamic compartmental model of the HIV epidemic in a population of non-IDUs, IDUs using opiates, and IDUs on methadone substitution therapy, stratified by HIV status, and populated it with data from the Ukraine. We considered interventions expanding methadone substitution therapy, increasing access to ART, or both. We measured health care costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), HIV prevalence, infections averted, and incremental cost-effectiveness. Without incremental interventions, HIV prevalence reached 67.2% (IDUs) and 0.88% (non-IDUs) after 20 years. Offering methadone substitution therapy to 25% of IDUs reduced prevalence most effectively (to 53.1% IDUs, 0.80% non-IDUs), and was most cost-effective, averting 4,700 infections and adding 76,000 QALYs compared with no intervention at US$530/QALY gained. Expanding both ART (80% coverage of those eligible for ART according to WHO criteria) and methadone substitution therapy (25% coverage) was the next most cost-effective strategy, adding 105,000 QALYs at US$1,120/QALY gained versus the methadone substitution therapy-only strategy and averting 8,300 infections versus no intervention. Expanding only ART (80% coverage) added 38,000 QALYs at US$2,240/QALY gained versus the methadone substitution therapy-only strategy, and averted 4,080 infections versus no intervention. Offering ART to 80% of non-IDUs eligible for treatment by WHO criteria, but only 10% of IDUs, averted only 1,800 infections versus no intervention and was not cost effective.ConclusionsMethadone substitution therapy is a highly cost-effective option for the growing mixed HIV epidemic in Ukraine. A strategy that expands both methadone substitution therapy and ART to high levels is the most effective intervention, and is very cost effective by WHO criteria. When expanding ART, access to methadone substitution therapy provides additional benefit in infections averted. Our findings are potentially relevant to other settings with mixed HIV epidemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Dataset Information

Effect of expanding opioid agonist therapies on the HIV epidemic and mortality in Ukraine: a modelling study.

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Funding

Publications

Effect of expanding opioid agonist therapies on the HIV epidemic and mortality in Ukraine: a modelling study.

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