Elimination or Resurgence: Modelling Lymphatic Filariasis After Reaching the 1% Microfilaremia Prevalence Threshold.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Prada JM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7289550 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Elimination or Resurgence: Modelling Lymphatic Filariasis After Reaching the 1% Microfilaremia Prevalence Threshold.
Prada Joaquin M JM Davis Emma L EL Touloupou Panayiota P Stolk Wilma A WA Kontoroupis Periklis P Smith Morgan E ME Sharma Swarnali S Michael Edwin E de Vlas Sake J SJ Hollingsworth T Déirdre TD
The Journal of infectious diseases 20200601 Suppl 5
The low prevalence levels associated with lymphatic filariasis elimination pose a challenge for effective disease surveillance. As more countries achieve the World Health Organization criteria for halting mass treatment and move on to surveillance, there is increasing reliance on the utility of transmission assessment surveys (TAS) to measure success. However, the long-term disease outcomes after passing TAS are largely untested. Using 3 well-established mathematical models, we show that low-lev ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundTo secure the gains of lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination programs, attention is needed to the 'residual microfilaremia phase', in which high-risk populations may be crucial. The present study documents the impact of mass drug administration (MDA) in the urban Indian setting of Surat City, with high rates of in-migration.MethodsEpidemiological assessment included National Filaria Control Program (NFCP) and World Health Organization recommended routine and pre-MDA microfilaremia surveys respectively. Routine filaria surveys were conducted around the year in approximately 2000-4000 people per month, while pre-MDA surveys were carried out annually among approximately 4000 people from four fixed and four random sites. In 2016, Transmission Assessment Survey (TAS) was done in primary school children. The outcomes were microfilaremia (Mf) and antigen prevalence; more specifically, microfilaremia according to place of birth, in pre-MDA and routine night blood smears (NBS) collected from 2008 to 2015. Prevalence ratios and confidence intervals were calculated.ResultsA total of 25 480 pre-MDA and 306 198 routine NBS were examined during the study. In 2008, the Mf prevalence in the routine survey was 63/18 814 (0.33%), declining to 23/39 717 (0.06%) in 2016. Pre-MDA surveys showed a similar decrease from 47/4184 (1.1%) in 2008 to 12/4042 (0.3%) in 2015. In those born outside Surat, microfilaremia decreased below transmission thresholds, but remained more than treble that of the remainder of the population, in both the pre-MDA surveys [prevalence ratio: 3.17, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-8.72], and the routine surveys (3.31, 95% CI: 1.47-7.48). Though the TAS results indicated that MDA endpoints had been reached, sub-group analysis identified that 90% of antigenemic children were from families of high-risk groups.ConclusionsExtensive long-term epidemiological monitoring suggests that all the urban population, including high-risk groups, have benefitted from the ELF program. To prevent re-establishment of infection in large urban areas with unsanitary conditions conducive to filarial vector breeding, there is need to identify residual microfilaremia by customized surveys in addition to pre-MDA monitoring and TAS. The present findings can be used to develop strategies to prioritize screening, surveillance and plan treatment of high-risk groups after achieving MDA endpoints.
| S-EPMC8130313 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundFollowing the World Health Assembly resolution on Elimination of lymphatic filariasis (ELF) as a public health problem by the year 2020, a Global Program (GPELF) was launched in 1997 to help endemic countries to initiate national programs. The current strategy to interrupt transmission of LF, is administration of once-yearly, single-dose, two-drug regimen (Albendazole with Diethylcarbamazine (DEC) to be used in endemic areas with the goal of reaching 65% epidemiological coverage for 4-6 years. We report findings of independent assessment from year 2010 to 2015 for last six rounds, after initial five rounds of Mass Drug Administration (MDA) since 2005 for ELF in endemic area of Gujarat.MethodsIndependent assessment of MDA was performed to find coverage and compliance indicators, reasons for non-coverage and non-compliance in five Implementation Units (IUs). Pre, during and post MDA evaluations were done in three phases. The impact of MDA was measured by microfilaraemia survey. A total of eight sites, four random and four fixed sentinel sites were selected to calculate microfilaria rate (MF) per IUs per year. In years 2010 to 2015, we report results from 125,936 nocturnal blood smears and 17551 population in 120 selected clusters. Four clusters were selected per year in each of the five IUs for assessment of MDA round.ResultPost MDA survey showed drug coverage between 81%-88% and epidemiological coverage 77%-89% across years. Main reasons for non-coverage were drug administrator related (the team did not visit or missed people) while non-compliance was population related (fear of side effects, sickness, people forgot or absent). During MDA findings show that the directly observed consumption is considerably improved from 58% in 2010 to 82% in 2015. The knowledge about benefits of drug provided also increased from 59% to 90% over the years. The current MF rate is less than one in all IUs with an overall 68% percent decrease from baseline year 2005 to year 2015. The average MF rate of Gujarat is 0.44 for year 2015.ConclusionsThe findings show that achieving adequate epidemiological and drug coverage is possible by actual field level operation of the program in large endemic areas. The results and feedback from independent assessment, performed regularly, could guide the policymakers and program managers for mid-term corrections and to frame strategies to enhance program. Monitoring of coverage and impact indicator together informs decisions for reaching end-point of MDA. The impact indicator- microfilaria rate in all IUs of South Gujarat Region has reached and remained less than one percent signaling end-points of MDA. Post MDA stringent monitoring in form of TAS is recommended to keep vigil on maintenance of elimination achieved.
| S-EPMC5391126 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe prevalence of Wuchereria bancrofti, which causes lymphatic filariasis (LF) in The Gambia was among the highest in Africa in the 1950s. However, surveys conducted in 1975 and 1976 revealed a dramatic decline in LF endemicity in the absence of mass drug administration (MDA). The decline in prevalence was partly attributed to a significant reduction in mosquito density through the widespread use of insecticidal nets. Based on findings elsewhere that vector control alone can interrupt LF, we asked the question in 2013 whether the rapid scale up in the use of insecticidal nets in The Gambia had interrupted LF transmission.Methodology/principal findingWe present here the results of three independently designed filariasis surveys conducted over a period of 17 years (1997-2013), and involving over 6000 subjects in 21 districts across all administrative divisions in The Gambia. An immunochromatographic (ICT) test was used to detect W. bancrofti antigen during all three surveys. In 2001, tests performed on stored samples collected between 1997 and 2000, in three divisions, failed to show positive individuals from two divisions that were previously highly endemic for LF, suggesting a decline towards extinction in some areas. Results of the second survey conducted in 2003 showed that LF was no longer endemic in 16 of 21 districts surveyed. The 2013 survey used a WHO recommended LF transmission verification tool involving 3180 6-7 year-olds attending 60 schools across the country. We demonstrated that transmission of W. bancrofti has been interrupted in all 21 districts.ConclusionsWe conclude that LF transmission may have been interrupted in The Gambia through the extensive use of insecticidal nets for malaria control for decades. The growing evidence for the impact of malaria vector control activities on parasite transmission has been endorsed by WHO through a position statement in 2011 on integrated vector management to control malaria and LF.
| S-EPMC4364952 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In the global drive for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF), 15 countries have achieved validation of elimination as a public health problem (EPHP). Recent empirical evidence has demonstrated that EPHP does not always lead to elimination of transmission (EOT). Here we show how the probability of elimination explicitly depends on key biological parameters, many of which have been poorly characterized, leading to a poor evidence base for the elimination threshold. As more countries progress towards EPHP it is essential that this process is well-informed, as prematurely halting treatment and surveillance programs could pose a serious threat to global progress. We highlight that refinement of the weak empirical evidence base is vital to understand drivers of elimination and inform long-term policy.
| S-EPMC7413036 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis was launched in 2000 to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem by 1) interrupting transmission through mass drug administration (MDA) and 2) offering basic care to those suffering from lymphoedema or hydrocele due to the infection. Although impressive progress has been made, the initial target year of 2020 will not be met everywhere. The World Health Organization recently proposed 2030 as the new target year for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem. In this letter, LF modelers of the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) Modelling Consortium reflect on the proposed targets for 2030 from a quantitative perspective. While elimination as a public health problem seems technically and operationally feasible, it is uncertain whether this will eventually also lead to complete elimination of transmission. The risk of resurgence needs to be mitigated by strong surveillance after stopping interventions and sometimes perhaps additional interventions.
| S-EPMC6833911 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLymphatic filariasis (LF) is a major public health problem in the Pacific Region, including in Fiji. Through transmission by the mosquito vector Aedes, Fiji has suffered the burden of remaining endemic with LF despite efforts at elimination prior to 1999. In the year 1999, Fiji agreed to take part in the Pacific Programme for Elimination of LF (PacELF) and the Global Programme to Eliminate LF.MethodsThis study reviewed and collated past data on LF in Fiji between 1997 and 2007. Sources included published papers as well as unpublished PacELF and WHO program meeting and survey reports. Records were held at Fiji's Department of Health and Medical Services, James Cook University and the WHO office in Suva, Fiji.ResultsBaseline surveys between 1997 and 2002 showed that Fiji was highly endemic for LF with an estimated 16.6% of the population antigen positive and 6.3% microfilaria positive at that time. Five rounds of annual mass drug administration (MDA) using albendazole and diethylcarbamazine commenced in 2002. Programmatic coverage reported was 58-70% per year, but an independent coverage survey in 2006 in Northern Division after the fifth MDA suggested that actual coverage may have been higher. Monitoring of the program consisted of antigen prevalence surveys in all ages with sentinel and spot check surveys carried out in 2002 (pre MDA), 2004, and 2005, together with knowledge, attitude, and practice surveys. The stop-MDA survey (C survey) in 2007 was a nationwide stratified cluster survey of all ages according to PacELF guidelines, designed to sample by administrative division to identify areas still needing MDA. The national antigen prevalence in 2007 was reduced by more than a third to 9.5%, ranging from 0.9% in Western Division to 15.4% in Eastern Division, while microfilaria prevalence was reduced by almost four-fifths to 1.4%. Having not reached the target threshold of 1% prevalence in all ages, Fiji wisely decided to continue MDA after 2007 but to move from nationwide implementation to four (later five) separate evaluation units with independent timelines using global guidelines, building on program experience to put more emphasis on increasing coverage through prioritized communication strategies, community participation, and morbidity alleviation.ConclusionFiji conducted nationwide MDA for LF annually between 2002 and 2006, monitored by extensive surveys of prevalence, knowledge, and coverage. From a high baseline prevalence in all divisions, large reductions in overall and age-specific prevalence were achieved, especially in the prevalence of microfilariae, but the threshold for stopping MDA was not reached. Fiji has a large rural and geographically widespread population, program management was not consistent over this period, and coverage achieved was likely not optimal in all areas. After learning from these many challenges and activities, Fiji was able to build on the progress achieved and the heterogeneity observed in prevalence to realign towards a more stratified and improved program after 2007. The information presented here will assist the country to progress towards validating elimination in subsequent years.
| S-EPMC7592542 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Malaria and lymphatic filariasis (LF) continue to cause a considerable public health burden globally and are co-endemic in many regions of sub-Saharan Africa. These infections are transmitted by the same mosquito species which raises important questions about optimal vector control strategies in co-endemic regions, as well as the effect of the presence of each infection on endemicity of the other; there is currently little consensus on the latter. The need for comprehensive modelling studies to address such questions is therefore significant, yet very few have been undertaken to date despite the recognised explanatory power of reliable dynamic mathematical models. Here, we develop a malaria-LF co-infection modelling framework that accounts for two key interactions between these infections, namely the increase in vector mortality as LF mosquito prevalence increases and the antagonistic Th1/Th2 immune response that occurs in co-infected hosts. We consider the crucial interplay between these interactions on the resulting endemic prevalence when introducing each infection in regions where the other is already endemic (e.g. due to regional environmental change), and the associated timescale for such changes, as well as effects on the basic reproduction number R? of each disease. We also highlight potential perverse effects of vector controls on human infection prevalence in co-endemic regions, noting that understanding such effects is critical in designing optimal integrated control programmes. Hence, as well as highlighting where better data are required to more reliably address such questions, we provide an important framework that will form the basis of future scenario analysis tools used to plan and inform policy decisions on intervention measures in different transmission settings.
| S-EPMC3681634 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLymphatic filariasis (LF) is targeted for elimination in Sierra Leone. Epidemiological coverage of mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin and albendazole had been reported >65% in all 12 districts annually. Eight districts qualified to implement transmission assessment survey (TAS) in 2013 but were deferred until 2017 due to the Ebola outbreak (2014-2016). In 2017, four districts qualified for conducting a repeat pre-TAS after completing three more rounds of MDA and the final two districts were also eligible to implement a pre-TAS.Methodology/principal findingsFor TAS, eight districts were surveyed as four evaluation units (EU). A school-based survey was conducted in children aged 6-7 years from 30 clusters per EU. For pre-TAS, one sentinel and one spot check site per district (with 2 spot check sites in Bombali) were selected and 300-350 persons aged 5 years and above were selected. For both surveys, finger prick blood samples were tested using the Filariasis Test Strips (FTS). For TAS, 7,143 children aged 6-7 years were surveyed across four EUs, and positives were found in three EUs, all below the critical cut-off value for each EU. For the repeat pre-TAS/pre-TAS, 3,994 persons over five years of age were surveyed. The Western Area Urban had FTS prevalence of 0.7% in two sites and qualified for TAS, while other five districts had sites with antigenemia prevalence >2%: 9.1-25.9% in Bombali, 7.5-19.4% in Koinadugu, 6.1-2.9% in Kailahun, 1.3-2.3% in Kenema and 1.7% - 3.7% in Western Area Rural.Conclusions/significanceEight districts in Sierra Leone have successfully passed TAS1 and stopped MDA, with one more district qualified for conducting TAS1, a significant progress towards LF elimination. However, great challenges exist in eliminating LF from the whole country with repeated failure of pre-TAS in border districts. Effort needs to be intensified to achieve LF elimination.
| S-EPMC7793261 | biostudies-literature
Project description:China used to be one of the most heavily endemic countries for lymphatic filariasis (LF) in the world. There were 864 endemic counties/cities in 16 provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities (P/A/M) with a total population of 330 million at risk of infection. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, the Chinese Government has designated the control of the disease to be a top priority. Due to decades of sustained efforts, close cooperation related to LF control among government departments, and active participation of endemic populations, an all-round campaign for prevention and control has been carried out vigorously and successfully. Over many years, great achievements have been made through persistent endeavors of Chinese scientists and disease control workers. The ultimate goal to eliminate LF in the country was achieved in 2006.
| S-EPMC4177192 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Lymphatic Filariasis and Onchocerciasis (river blindness) constitute pressing public health issues in tropical regions. Global elimination programs, involving mass drug administration (MDA), have been launched by the World Health Organisation. Although the drugs used are generally well tolerated, individuals who are highly co-infected with Loa loa are at risk of experiencing serious adverse events. Highly infected individuals are more likely to be found in communities with high prevalence. An understanding of the relationship between individual infection and population-level prevalence can therefore inform decisions on whether MDA can be safely administered in an endemic community. Based on Loa loa infection intensity data from individuals in Cameroon, the Republic of the Congo and the Democratic Republic of the Congo we develop a statistical model for the distribution of infection levels in communities. We then use this model to make predictive inferences regarding the proportion of individuals whose parasite count exceeds policy-relevant levels. In particular we show how to exploit the positive correlation between community-level prevalence and intensity of infection in order to predict the proportion of highly infected individuals in a community given only prevalence data from the community in question. The resulting prediction intervals are not substantially wider, and in some cases narrower, than the corresponding binomial confidence intervals obtained from data that include measurements of individual infection levels. Therefore the model developed here facilitates the estimation of the proportion of individuals highly infected with Loa loa using only estimated community level prevalence. It can be used to assess the risk of rolling out MDA in a specific community, or to guide policy decisions.
| S-EPMC5132393 | biostudies-literature