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ABSTRACT: Background
As the World Health Organization seeks to eliminate trachoma by 2020, countries are beginning to control the transmission of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) and discontinue mass drug administration (MDA) with oral azithromycin. We evaluated the effect of MDA discontinuation on TF1-9 prevalence at the district level.Methods
We extracted from the available data districts with an impact survey at the end of their program cycle that initiated discontinuation of MDA (TF1-9 prevalence <5%), followed by a surveillance survey conducted to determine whether TF1-9 prevalence remained below the 5% threshold, warranting discontinuation of MDA. Two independent analyses were performed, 1 regression based and 1 simulation based, that assessed the change in TF1-9 from the impact survey to the surveillance survey.Results
Of the 220 districts included, TF1-9 prevalence increased to >5% from impact to surveillance survey in 9% of districts. Regression analysis indicated that impact survey TF1-9 prevalence was a significant predictor of surveillance survey TF1-9 prevalence. The proportion of simulations with >5% TF1-9 prevalence in the surveillance survey was 2%, assuming the survey was conducted 4 years after MDA.Conclusion
An increase in TF1-9 prevalence may represent disease resurgence but could also be due to measurement error. Improved diagnostic tests are crucial to elimination of TF1-9 as a public health problem.
SUBMITTER: Godwin W
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7289551 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Godwin William W Prada Joaquin M JM Emerson Paul P Hooper P J PJ Bakhtiari Ana A Deiner Michael M Porco Travis C TC Mahmud Hamidah H Landskroner Emma E Hollingsworth T Déirdre TD Medley Graham F GF Pinsent Amy A Bailey Robin R Lietman Thomas M TM Oldenburg Catherine E CE
The Journal of infectious diseases 20200601 Suppl 5
<h4>Background</h4>As the World Health Organization seeks to eliminate trachoma by 2020, countries are beginning to control the transmission of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) and discontinue mass drug administration (MDA) with oral azithromycin. We evaluated the effect of MDA discontinuation on TF1-9 prevalence at the district level.<h4>Methods</h4>We extracted from the available data districts with an impact survey at the end of their program cycle that initiated discontinuation of M ...[more]