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The fertility effects of public pension: Evidence from the new rural pension scheme in China.

ABSTRACT: Public pension insurance has become a major form of social protection around the world. However, little is known about the association between public pension expansion and individuals' fertility in developing economies. In this paper, we examine the effects of the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) on the fertility of married women in rural China. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), the difference-in-differences approach is employed to estimate the impact of NRPS expansion on fertility outcomes. The robustness of results is checked through additional estimations, including difference-in-differences with propensity score matching, fixed-effects model, and instrumental variable approach. Results show that the NRPS expansion has a significantly negative effect on the number of children, and it reduces the likelihood of having a second child. The fertility-reducing effect of the NRPS is larger for the younger, well-educated women and those in high-income families. Considerations of the fertility effects and their population differences are needed in the impact evaluations of relevant public pension reform.

SUBMITTER: Shen Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7292397 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The fertility effects of public pension: Evidence from the new rural pension scheme in China.

Shen Zheng Z Zheng Xiaodong X Yang Hualei H

PloS one 20200612 6

Public pension insurance has become a major form of social protection around the world. However, little is known about the association between public pension expansion and individuals' fertility in developing economies. In this paper, we examine the effects of the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) on the fertility of married women in rural China. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), the difference-in-differences approach is employed to estimate the impact of NRPS expansion on fer ...[more]

PMID: 32530927

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Project description:ObjectivesTo determine whether China's New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS), which aims to provide health insurance to 800 million rural citizens and to correct distortions in rural primary care, and the individual policy attributes have affected the operation and use of village health clinics.DesignWe performed a difference-in-difference analysis using multivariate linear regressions, controlling for clinic and individual attributes as well as village and year effects.Setting100 villages within 25 rural counties across five Chinese provinces in 2004 and 2007. Participants 160 village primary care clinics and 8339 individuals.Main outcome measuresClinic outcomes were log average weekly patient flow, log average monthly gross income, log total annual net income, and the proportion of monthly gross income from medicine sales. Individual outcomes were probability of seeking medical care, log annual "out of pocket" health expenditure, and two measures of exposure to financial risk (probability of incurring out of pocket health expenditure above the 90th percentile of spending among the uninsured and probability of financing medical care by borrowing or selling assets).ResultsFor village clinics, we found that NCMS was associated with a 26% increase in weekly patient flow and a 29% increase in monthly gross income, but no change in annual net revenue or the proportion of monthly income from drug revenue. For individuals, participation in NCMS was associated with a 5% increase in village clinic use, but no change in overall medical care use. Also, out of pocket medical spending fell by 19% and the two measures of exposure to financial risk declined by 24-63%. These changes occurred across heterogeneous county programmes, even in those with minimal benefit packages.ConclusionsNCMS provides some financial risk protection for individuals in rural China and has partly corrected distortions in Chinese rural healthcare (reducing the oversupply of specialty services and prescription drugs). However, the scheme may have also shifted uncompensated new responsibilities to village clinics. Given renewed interest among Chinese policy makers in strengthening primary care, the effect of NCMS deserves greater attention.

Project description:BackgroundThe New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) includes a maternal care benefits package that is associated with increasing maternal health services. The local compensation policies have been frequently adjusted in recent years. This study examined the association between the NCMS maternal-services policy adjustment and expense reimbursement in Yuyao, China.MethodsTwo household surveys were conducted in Yuyao in 2008 and 2011 (before and after the NCMS policy adjustment, respectively). Local women (N = 154) who had delivery history in the past three years were recruited. A questionnaire was used to collect information about delivery history, maternal health services utilization (prenatal care, postnatal care, and the grade of delivery institutions), NCMS participation, and reimbursement status. Logistic regression analyses were used to predict the association between policy adjustment and maternal health utilization and the association between policy adjustment and out-of-pocket proportion. Next, t-tests and covariance analyses adjusting for household income were used to compare the out-of-pocket proportion between 2008 and 2011.ResultsResults revealed that compensation policy adjustment was associated with an increase in postnatal visits (adjusted OR = 3.32, p = 0.009) and the use of second level or above institutions for delivery (adjusted OR = 2.32, p = 0.03) among participants. In 2008, only 9.1% of pregnant women received reimbursement from the NCMS; however, this rate increased to 36.8% in 2011. After policy adjustment, there were no significant changes in the proportion of out-of-pocket expenses shared in delivery fee (F = 0.24, p = 0.63) and in household income (F = 0.46, p = 0.50).ConclusionsFinancial compensation increase improved maternal health services utilization; however, this effect was limited. Although the reimbursement rate was raised, the out-of-pocket proportion was not significant changed; therefore, the compensation design scheme must be adjusted in practice.

Project description:BackgroundThe proportion of people aged 60 years or over is growing faster than other age groups. Traditionally, retirement has been considered as both a loss to the labour market and an additional economic burden on the nation. More recently, it is widely accepted that retired people can still contribute to society in many ways, though the extent of their contributions will depend heavily on their state of health. In this context, a significant practical issue is how to encourage older people to use the health services they need. This study aims to evaluate the effects of pensions on older adults' health service utilization, and estimate the level of pension required to influence such utilization.MethodsUsing data from a nationally representative sample survey, the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we adopted a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and undertook segmented regression analysis.ResultsIt was found that a pension did encourage low-income people to use both outpatient (OR = 1.219, 95% 1.018-1.460) and inpatient services (OR = 1.269, 95% 1.020-1.579); but also encouraged both low- and high-income people to choose self-treatment, specifically over-the-counter (OR = 1.208, 95% 1.037-1.407; OR = 1.206, 95% 1.024-1.419; respectively) and traditional Chinese medicines (OR = 1.452, 95% 1.094-1.932; OR = 1.456, 95% 1.079-1.955; respectively). However, receiving a pension had no effect on the frequency of outpatient and inpatient service use. Breakpoints for a pension to promote health service utilization were mainly located in the range 55-95 CNY (7.1-12.3 EUR or 8.0-13.8 USD).ConclusionsA pension was found to have mixed effects on health service utilization for different income groups. Our study enriches existing evidence on the impact of pensions on healthcare-seeking behaviour and can be helpful in policy design and the formulation of improved models relating to pensions and healthcare utilisation.

Dataset Information

The fertility effects of public pension: Evidence from the new rural pension scheme in China.

Publications

The fertility effects of public pension: Evidence from the new rural pension scheme in China.

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