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The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries.


ABSTRACT: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. We combine data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control. Younger populations in lower income countries may reduce overall risk but limited health system capacity coupled with closer inter-generational contact largely negates this benefit. Mitigation strategies that slow but do not interrupt transmission will still lead to COVID-19 epidemics rapidly overwhelming health systems, with substantial excess deaths in lower income countries due to the poorer health care available. Of countries that have undertaken suppression to date, lower income countries have acted earlier. However, this will need to be maintained or triggered more frequently in these settings to keep below available health capacity, with associated detrimental consequences for the wider health, well-being and economies of these countries.

SUBMITTER: Walker PGT 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7292504 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries.

Walker Patrick G T PGT   Whittaker Charles C   Watson Oliver J OJ   Baguelin Marc M   Winskill Peter P   Hamlet Arran A   Djafaara Bimandra A BA   Cucunubá Zulma Z   Olivera Mesa Daniela D   Green Will W   Thompson Hayley H   Nayagam Shevanthi S   Ainslie Kylie E C KEC   Bhatia Sangeeta S   Bhatt Samir S   Boonyasiri Adhiratha A   Boyd Olivia O   Brazeau Nicholas F NF   Cattarino Lorenzo L   Cuomo-Dannenburg Gina G   Dighe Amy A   Donnelly Christl A CA   Dorigatti Ilaria I   van Elsland Sabine L SL   FitzJohn Rich R   Fu Han H   Gaythorpe Katy A M KAM   Geidelberg Lily L   Grassly Nicholas N   Haw David D   Hayes Sarah S   Hinsley Wes W   Imai Natsuko N   Jorgensen David D   Knock Edward E   Laydon Daniel D   Mishra Swapnil S   Nedjati-Gilani Gemma G   Okell Lucy C LC   Unwin H Juliette HJ   Verity Robert R   Vollmer Michaela M   Walters Caroline E CE   Wang Haowei H   Wang Yuanrong Y   Xi Xiaoyue X   Lalloo David G DG   Ferguson Neil M NM   Ghani Azra C AC  

Science (New York, N.Y.) 20200612 6502


The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. We combine data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control. Younger populations in lower-income countries may reduce overall risk, but limited health system capacity coupled with closer intergenerational contact largely negates this benefit. Mitigation strategies that slow but do not  ...[more]

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