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Past and future decline of tropical pelagic biodiversity.


ABSTRACT: A major research question concerning global pelagic biodiversity remains unanswered: when did the apparent tropical biodiversity depression (i.e., bimodality of latitudinal diversity gradient [LDG]) begin? The bimodal LDG may be a consequence of recent ocean warming or of deep-time evolutionary speciation and extinction processes. Using rich fossil datasets of planktonic foraminifers, we show here that a unimodal (or only weakly bimodal) diversity gradient, with a plateau in the tropics, occurred during the last ice age and has since then developed into a bimodal gradient through species distribution shifts driven by postglacial ocean warming. The bimodal LDG likely emerged before the Anthropocene and industrialization, and perhaps ?15,000 y ago, indicating a strong environmental control of tropical diversity even before the start of anthropogenic warming. However, our model projections suggest that future anthropogenic warming further diminishes tropical pelagic diversity to a level not seen in millions of years.

SUBMITTER: Yasuhara M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7293716 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Past and future decline of tropical pelagic biodiversity.

Yasuhara Moriaki M   Wei Chih-Lin CL   Kucera Michal M   Costello Mark J MJ   Tittensor Derek P DP   Kiessling Wolfgang W   Bonebrake Timothy C TC   Tabor Clay R CR   Feng Ran R   Baselga Andrés A   Kretschmer Kerstin K   Kusumoto Buntarou B   Kubota Yasuhiro Y  

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20200526 23


A major research question concerning global pelagic biodiversity remains unanswered: when did the apparent tropical biodiversity depression (i.e., bimodality of latitudinal diversity gradient [LDG]) begin? The bimodal LDG may be a consequence of recent ocean warming or of deep-time evolutionary speciation and extinction processes. Using rich fossil datasets of planktonic foraminifers, we show here that a unimodal (or only weakly bimodal) diversity gradient, with a plateau in the tropics, occurre  ...[more]

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