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Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The risk of severe COVID-19 if an individual becomes infected is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 and how this varies between countries should inform the design of possible strategies to shield or vaccinate those at highest risk. METHODS:We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe disease (defined as those with at least one condition listed as "at increased risk of severe COVID-19" in current guidelines) by age (5-year age groups), sex, and country for 188 countries using prevalence data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 and UN population estimates for 2020. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 was determined by mapping the conditions listed in GBD 2017 to those listed in guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and the USA. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity. To help interpretation of the degree of risk among those at increased risk, we also estimated the number of individuals at high risk (defined as those that would require hospital admission if infected) using age-specific infection-hospitalisation ratios for COVID-19 estimated for mainland China and making adjustments to reflect country-specific differences in the prevalence of underlying conditions and frailty. We assumed males were twice at likely as females to be at high risk. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at increased risk because of their age, using minimum ages from 50 to 70 years. We generated uncertainty intervals (UIs) for our estimates by running low and high scenarios using the lower and upper 95% confidence limits for country population size, disease prevalences, multimorbidity fractions, and infection-hospitalisation ratios, and plausible low and high estimates for the degree of clustering, informed by multimorbidity studies. FINDINGS:We estimated that 1·7 billion (UI 1·0-2·4) people, comprising 22% (UI 15-28) of the global population, have at least one underlying condition that puts them at increased risk of severe COVID-19 if infected (ranging from <5% of those younger than 20 years to >66% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated that 349 million (186-787) people (4% [3-9] of the global population) are at high risk of severe COVID-19 and would require hospital admission if infected (ranging from <1% of those younger than 20 years to approximately 20% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated 6% (3-12) of males to be at high risk compared with 3% (2-7) of females. The share of the population at increased risk was highest in countries with older populations, African countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence, and small island nations with high diabetes prevalence. Estimates of the number of individuals at increased risk were most sensitive to the prevalence of chronic kidney disease, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic respiratory disease. INTERPRETATION:About one in five individuals worldwide could be at increased risk of severe COVID-19, should they become infected, due to underlying health conditions, but this risk varies considerably by age. Our estimates are uncertain, and focus on underlying conditions rather than other risk factors such as ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, and obesity, but provide a starting point for considering the number of individuals that might need to be shielded or vaccinated as the global pandemic unfolds. FUNDING:UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research.

SUBMITTER: Clark A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7295519 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study.

Clark Andrew A Jit Mark M Warren-Gash Charlotte C Guthrie Bruce B Wang Harry H X HHX Mercer Stewart W SW Sanderson Colin C McKee Martin M Troeger Christopher C Ong Kanyin L KL Checchi Francesco F Perel Pablo P Joseph Sarah S Gibbs Hamish P HP Banerjee Amitava A Eggo Rosalind M RM

The Lancet. Global health 20200615 8

<h4>Background</h4>The risk of severe COVID-19 if an individual becomes infected is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 and how this varies between countries should inform the design of possible strategies to shield or vaccinate those at highest risk.<h4>Methods</h4>We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe disease (defined as those with at least ...[more]

PMID: 32553130

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Project description:BackgroundPreterm birth is the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years worldwide. Although preterm survival rates have increased in high-income countries, preterm newborns still die because of a lack of adequate newborn care in many low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated global, regional, and national rates of preterm birth in 2014, with trends over time for some selected countries.MethodsWe systematically searched for data on preterm birth for 194 WHO Member States from 1990 to 2014 in databases of national civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS). We also searched for population-representative surveys and research studies for countries with no or limited CRVS data. For 38 countries with high-quality data for preterm births in 2014, data are reported directly. For countries with at least three data points between 1990 and 2014, we used a linear mixed regression model to estimate preterm birth rates. We also calculated regional and global estimates of preterm birth for 2014.FindingsWe identified 1241 data points across 107 countries. The estimated global preterm birth rate for 2014 was 10·6% (uncertainty interval 9·0-12·0), equating to an estimated 14·84 million (12·65 million-16·73 million) live preterm births in 2014. 12· 0 million (81·1%) of these preterm births occurred in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Regional preterm birth rates for 2014 ranged from 13·4% (6·3-30·9) in North Africa to 8·7% (6·3-13·3) in Europe. India, China, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Indonesia accounted for 57·9 million (41×4%) of 139·9 million livebirths and 6·6 million (44×6%) of preterm births globally in 2014. Of the 38 countries with high-quality data, preterm birth rates have increased since 2000 in 26 countries and decreased in 12 countries. Globally, we estimated that the preterm birth rate was 9×8% (8×3-10×9) in 2000, and 10×6% (9×0-12×0) in 2014.InterpretationPreterm birth remains a crucial issue in child mortality and improving quality of maternal and newborn care. To better understand the epidemiology of preterm birth, the quality and volume of data needs to be improved, including standardisation of definitions, measurement, and reporting.FundingWHO and the March of Dimes.

Project description:BackgroundWe have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015.MethodsWe estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity.FindingsWe estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6-50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7-3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000-74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2-1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700-36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600-149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population.InterpretationGlobally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group.FundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:BackgroundGlobally, pneumonia is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity in children younger than 5 years. Underlying HIV infection is an important risk factor for pneumonia morbidity and mortality in children. There are, however, no global or country level estimates of pneumonia burden in HIV-infected children. We assessed the role of HIV in pneumonia incidence and mortality and estimated the number of pneumonia cases and deaths in HIV-infected children younger than 5 years in 133 high pneumonia-burden countries in 2010.MethodsWe estimated the risk of hospital admission and case fatality rate caused by pneumonia in HIV-infected children compared with HIV-uninfected children from a systematic review of studies published in Medline, Embase, and Global Health between Jan 1, 1980, and Aug 31, 2013. We estimated nationwide pneumonia incidence and mortality with two different models that incorporated several risk factors for paediatric pneumonia hospital admission and mortality (including HIV infection). We then estimated the number of pneumonia episodes and deaths that occurred in HIV-infected children in 2010.FindingsThe odds ratio (OR) for hospital admission for all-cause pneumonia in HIV-infected children compared with HIV-uninfected children was 6·5 (95% CI 5·9-7·2). The risk of death was higher in children with pneumonia and HIV compared with those with pneumonia only (OR 5·9, 95% CI 2·7-12·7). In 2010, 1·4 million pneumonia episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 0·6 million to 3·3 million) and 88 000 pneumonia deaths (UR 47 400-153 000) occurred in HIV-infected children in low-income countries. Of these, 1·2 million pneumonia episodes (UR 0·5 million-2·7 million) and 85 400 deaths (UR 46 000-147 300) were directly attributable to HIV. 1·3 million (90%) pneumonia episodes and 82 400 (93%) pneumonia deaths in HIV-infected children aged younger than 5 years occurred in the WHO African region.InterpretationGlobally, a small proportion of pneumonia episodes and pneumonia deaths occur in HIV-infected children. However, in the highest HIV-burden countries in sub-Saharan Africa (ie, Swaziland, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe) up to a fifth of all pneumonia cases and 60% of pneumonia deaths occur in HIV-infected children. In these countries, major reductions in child pneumonia mortality can be achieved only if the systemic challenges plaguing the health system (poor coverage of early infant testing for HIV, of antiretroviral drugs in pregnant women and young children, of co-trimoxazole prophylaxis, and of pneumococcal vaccination) can be overcome.FundingWHO.

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Project description:BackgroundThe absolute number of pneumonia deaths in India has declined substantially since 2000. However, pneumonia remains a major cause of morbidity in children in the country. We used a risk factor-based model to estimate pneumonia and severe pneumonia morbidity in Indian states in 2000 and 2015.MethodsIn this modelling study, we estimated the burden of pneumonia and severe pneumonia in children younger than 5 years using a risk factor-based model. We did a systematic literature review to identify published data on the incidence of pneumonia from community-based longitudinal studies and calculated summary estimates. We estimated state-specific incidence rates for WHO-defined clinical pneumonia between 2000 and 2015 using Poisson regression and the prevalence of risk factors in each state was obtained from National Family Health Surveys. From clinical pneumonia studies, we identified studies reporting the proportion of clinical pneumonia cases with lower chest wall indrawing to estimate WHO-defined severe pneumonia cases. We used the estimate of the proportion of cases with lower chest wall indrawing to estimate WHO-defined severe pneumonia cases for each state.FindingsBetween 2000 and 2015, the estimated number of pneumonia cases in Indian HIV-uninfected children younger than 5 years decreased from 83·8 million cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 14·0-300·8) to 49·8 million cases (9·1-174·2), representing a 41% reduction in pneumonia cases. The incidence of pneumonia in children younger than 5 years in India was 657 cases per 1000 children (95% UI 110-2357) in 2000 and 403 cases per 1000 children (74-1408) in 2015. The estimated national pneumonia case fatality rate in 2015 was 0·38% (95% UI 0·11-2·10). In 2015, the estimated number of severe pneumonia cases was 8·4 million (95% UI 1·2-31·7), with an incidence of 68 cases per 1000 children (9-257) and a case fatality ratio of 2·26% (0·60-16·30). In 2015, the estimated number of pneumonia cases in HIV-uninfected children was highest in Uttar Pradesh (12·4 million [95% UI 2·1-45·0]), Bihar (7·3 million [1·3-26·1]), and Madhya Pradesh (4·6 million [0·7-17·0]). Between 2000 and 2015, the greatest reduction in pneumonia cases was observed in Kerala (82% reduction). In 2015, pneumonia incidence was greater than 500 cases per 1000 children in two states: Uttar Pradesh (565 cases per 1000 children [95% UI 94-2047]) and Madhya Pradesh (563 cases per 1000 children [88-2084]).InterpretationThe estimated number of pneumonia and severe pneumonia cases among children younger than 5 years in India decreased between 2000 and 2015. Improvements in socioeconomic indicators and specific government initiatives are likely to have contributed to declines in the prevalence of pneumonia risk factors in many states. However, pneumonia incidence in many states remains high. The introduction of new vaccines that target pneumonia pathogens and reduce risk factors will help further reduce the burden of pneumonia in the country.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Dataset Information

Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study.

Publications

Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study.

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