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Combine performance, draft position and playing position are poor predictors of player career outcomes in the Australian Football League.

ABSTRACT: Physical testing-based draft combines are undertaken across various sporting codes to inform talent selection. To determine the explanatory power of the Australian football league (AFL) draft combine, participants drafted between 1999-2016 (n = 1488) were assessed. Testing performance, draft selection order and playing position, AFL matches played, AFL player ranking points and AFL player rating points were collected as career outcomes. Boosted regression tree analysis revealed that position and draft selection order were the most explanatory variables of career outcomes. Linear modelling based on testing results is able to explain 4% of matches played and 3% of in-game performance measures. Each individual combine test explained <2% of the matches played outcome. Draft selection order demonstrated mixed results for career outcomes relative to playing position. For instance, key forwards and draft selection order were observed as a slight negative relationship using the AFL Player Ranking points career outcome measure. These findings indicate that the AFL draft combine is a poor measure for informing talent selection, thus providing minimal utility for the practices investigated in this study.

SUBMITTER: Gogos BJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7299322 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Combine performance, draft position and playing position are poor predictors of player career outcomes in the Australian Football League.

Gogos Benjamin J BJ Larkin Paul P Haycraft Jade A Z JAZ Collier Neil French NF Robertson Sam S

PloS one 20200617 6

Physical testing-based draft combines are undertaken across various sporting codes to inform talent selection. To determine the explanatory power of the Australian football league (AFL) draft combine, participants drafted between 1999-2016 (n = 1488) were assessed. Testing performance, draft selection order and playing position, AFL matches played, AFL player ranking points and AFL player rating points were collected as career outcomes. Boosted regression tree analysis revealed that position and ...[more]

PMID: 32555713

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Project description:ImportanceStudies of the longevity of professional American football players have demonstrated lower mortality relative to the general population but they may have been susceptible to selection bias.ObjectiveTo examine the association between career participation in professional American football and mortality risk in retirement.Design, setting, and participantsRetrospective cohort study involving 3812 retired US National Football League (NFL) players who debuted in the NFL between 1982 and 1992, including regular NFL players (n = 2933) and NFL "replacement players" (n = 879) who were temporarily hired to play during a 3-game league-wide player strike in 1987. Follow-up ended on December 31, 2016.ExposuresNFL participation as a career player or as a replacement player.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was all-cause mortality by December 31, 2016. Cox proportional hazards models were estimated to compare the observed number of years from age 22 years until death (or censoring), adjusted for birth year, body mass index, height, and position played. Information on player death and cause of death was ascertained from a search of the National Death Index and web-based sources.ResultsOf the 3812 men included in this study (mean [SD] age at first NFL activity, 23.4 [1.5] years), there were 2933 career NFL players (median NFL tenure, 5 seasons [interquartile range {IQR}, 2-8]; median follow-up, 30 years [IQR, 27-33]) and 879 replacement players (median NFL tenure, 1 season [IQR, 1-1]; median follow-up, 31 years [IQR, 30-33]). At the end of follow-up, 144 NFL players (4.9%) and 37 replacement players (4.2%) were deceased (adjusted absolute risk difference, 1.0% [95% CI, -0.7% to 2.7%]; P = .25). The adjusted mortality hazard ratio for NFL players relative to replacements was 1.38 (95% CI, 0.95 to 1.99; P = .09). Among career NFL players, the most common causes of death were cardiometabolic disease (n = 51; 35.4%), transportation injuries (n = 20; 13.9%), unintentional injuries (n = 15; 10.4%), and neoplasms (n = 15; 10.4%). Among NFL replacement players, the leading causes of death were cardiometabolic diseases (n = 19; 51.4%), self-harm and interpersonal violence (n = 5; 13.5%), and neoplasms (n = 4; 10.8%).Conclusions and relevanceAmong NFL football players who began their careers between 1982 and 1992, career participation in the NFL, compared with limited NFL exposure obtained primarily as an NFL replacement player during a league-wide strike, was not associated with a statistically significant difference in long-term all-cause mortality. Given the small number of events, analysis of longer periods of follow-up may be informative.

Project description:Bony augmentation of the anterior glenoid is used in athletes with recurrent shoulder instability and bone loss; however, the prevalence and impact of repair in elite American football athletes are unknown.To evaluate the prevalence and impact of glenoid augmentation in athletes invited to the National Football League (NFL) Scouting Combine from 2012 to 2015.Case series; Level of evidence, 4.A total of 1311 athletes invited to the NFL Combine from 2012 to 2015 were evaluated for history of either Bristow or Latarjet surgery for recurrent anterior shoulder instability. Athlete demographics, surgical history, imaging, and physical examination results were recorded using the NFL Combine database. Prospective participation data with regard to draft status, games played, games started, and status after the athletes' first season in the NFL were gathered using publicly available databases.Surgical repair was performed on 10 shoulders in 10 athletes (0.76%), with the highest prevalence in defensive backs (30%; n = 3). Deficits in shoulder motion were exhibited in 70% (n = 7) of athletes, while 40% (n = 4) had evidence of mild glenohumeral arthritis and 80% demonstrated imaging findings consistent with a prior instability episode (8 labral tears, 2 Hill-Sachs lesions). Prospectively, 40% (n = 4) of athletes were drafted into the NFL. In the first season after the combine, athletes with a history of glenoid augmentation were not found to be at significant risk for diminished participation with regard to games played or started when compared with athletes with no history of glenoid augmentation or athletes undergoing isolated shoulder soft tissue repair. After the conclusion of the first NFL season, 60% (n = 6 athletes) were on an active NFL roster.Despite being drafted at a lower rate than their peers, there were no significant limitations in NFL participation for athletes with a history of glenoid augmentation when compared with athletes without a history of shoulder surgery or those with isolated soft tissue shoulder repair. Glenohumeral arthritis and advanced imaging findings of labral tearing and Hill-Sachs lesions in elite American football players with a history of glenoid augmentation did not significantly affect NFL participation 1 year after the combine.

Project description:Purpose To better understand the relationship between exposure to concussive and subconcussive head impacts, white matter integrity, and functional task-related neural activity in former U.S. football athletes. Materials and Methods Between 2011 and 2013, 61 cognitively unimpaired former collegiate and professional football players (age range, 52-65 years) provided informed consent to participate in this cross-sectional study. Participants were stratified across three crossed factors: career duration, concussion history, and primary playing position. Fractional anisotropy (FA) and blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) percent signal change (PSC) were measured with diffusion-weighted and task-related functional magnetic resonance imaging, respectively. Analyses of variance of FA and BOLD PSC were used to determine main or interaction effects of the three factors. Results A significant interaction between career duration and concussion history was observed; former college players with more than three concussions had lower FA in a broadly distributed area of white matter compared with those with zero to one concussion (t29 = 2.774; adjusted P = .037), and the opposite was observed for former professional players (t29 = 3.883; adjusted P = .001). A separate interaction between concussion history and position was observed: Nonspeed players with more than three concussions had lower FA in frontal white matter compared with those with zero to one concussion (t25 = 3.861; adjusted P = .002). Analysis of working memory-task BOLD PSC revealed a similar interaction between concussion history and position (all adjusted P < .004). Overall, former players with lower FA tended to have lower BOLD PSC across three levels of a working memory task. Conclusion Career duration and primary playing position seem to modify the effects of concussion history on white matter structure and neural recruitment. The differences in brain structure and function were observed in the absence of clinical impairment, which suggested that multimodal imaging may provide early markers of onset of traumatic neurodegenerative disease. © RSNA, 2017 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Project description:Player evaluation plays a fundamental role in the decision-making processes of professional sporting organisations. In the Australian Football League, both subjective and objective evaluations of player match performance are commonplace. This study aimed to identify the extent to which performance indicators can explain subjective ratings of player performance. A secondary aim was to compare subjective and objective ratings of player performance. Inside Football Player Ratings (IFPR) and Australian Football League Player Ratings were collected as subjective and objective evaluations of player performance, respectively, for each player during all 1026 matches throughout the 2013-2017 Australian Football League seasons. Nine common player performance indicators, player role classification, player age and match outcomes were also collected. Standardised linear mixed model and recursive partitioning and regression tree models were undertaken across the whole dataset, as well as separately for each of the seven player roles. The mixed model analysis produced a model associating the performance indicators with IFPR at a root mean square error of 0.98. Random effects accounting for differences between seasons and players ranged by 0.09 and 1.73 IFPR each across the five seasons and 1052 players, respectively. The recursive partitioning and regression tree model explained IFPR exactly in 35.8% of instances, and to within 1.0 IFPR point in 81.0% of instances. When analysed separately by player role, exact explanation varied from 25.2% to 41.7%, and within 1.0 IFPR point from 70.3% to 88.6%. Overall, kicks and handballs were most associated with the IFPR. This study highlights that a select few features account for a majority of the variance when explaining subjective ratings of player performance, and that these vary by player role. Australian Football League organisations should utilise both subjective and objective assessments of performance to gain a better understanding of the differences associated with subjective performance assessment.

Project description:Introduction: Accurate interpretation of activity profile data requires an understanding of the variables influencing player movement during matches. Methods: Over 65,000 stints (player rotations) from all 207 matches of the 2018 Australian Football League (AFL) season were evaluated. The relative activity profile including total distance per minute (TD), high-speed running distance per minute (HSR) and Player LoadTM per minute (PL) was determined for each stint and analysed against a range of match-related, player-related and environment-related predictor variables using multivariate linear mixed modelling. Effect size statistics along with the uncertainty in the estimates (95% confidence interval) were used to interpret the findings. Results: The smallest important effects on TD, HSR, and PL were calculated as 1.5%, 5.5%, and 2.4%, respectively. Stint duration had small to moderate negative effects on TD (-6%), PL (-7.7%), and HSR (-13%), while recovery duration between stints had a small positive effect on HSR (+7%). There were moderate reductions in TD (-8%), HSR (-23%), and PL (-9.6%) in the last quarter compared to the first quarter of matches, while similar reductions existed in subsequent stints compared to the first stint in each quarter. Moderate to large differences of up to 9% in TD, 48% in HSR and 12% in PL existed between positions. The TD of less experienced players was slightly higher than their more experienced counterparts (2-3%). A 5% increase in body mass was associated with a small reduction in HSR (-5.5%). There were small reductions in TD (-2%), HSR (-10%), and PL (-3%) during the Finals Series compared to the Premiership Season. Moderate levels of rainfall during matches and higher apparent temperatures had small negative effects on TD (-2%) and HSR (-6 and -9%). The number of days break between matches, score margin, match outcome, ground hardness, ground size, and traveling for the current or the previous match had trivial effects on the activity profile. Conclusion: Player position and stage of the match (quarter) had the largest effects on match activity profile while stint duration, recovery duration, stint timing, professional experience, body mass, stage of the season, and weather conditions also had substantial effects.

Dataset Information

Combine performance, draft position and playing position are poor predictors of player career outcomes in the Australian Football League.

Publications

Combine performance, draft position and playing position are poor predictors of player career outcomes in the Australian Football League.

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