Dataset Information

Coronavirus disease 2019 in India: Post-lockdown scenarios and provisioning for health care.

ABSTRACT: Background:With the rise of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in India, lockdown was imposed from March 25, 2020. We studied post-lockdown scenarios and evaluated health-care constraints. Our aim was to identify the scenarios in which health-care availability would not be overwhelmed. Methods:A modified compartmental SEIR stochastic model was used to calculate peak cases at various levels of effectiveness of prevention of transmission. Health-care constraints were evaluated using a Delphi study. We developed "q-metric" to evaluate the epidemic. Key constraints were matched against scenarios generated, and a monitoring mechanism was devised. Results:Continuing lockdown ("q-metric" of >50) until mid-August was theoretically the most effective solution to end the epidemic. Lockdown might however be lifted earlier owing to various compulsions. The key constraints were identified as trained manpower and ventilators. It was estimated that shortfall of specialists to operate ventilators for COVID-19 intensive care units was approximately 40,000. This requires re-purposing of other specialists and short-term training to meet the surge. The shortage of ventilators is around 40,000-50,000. Procuring beyond those numbers would be infructuous owing to limits of training manpower. After lifting lockdown, the aim should be to contain the epidemic within the availability of key constraints. Our model suggests that this can be achieved by community containment and other non-pharmacological interventions at a "q-metric" of 19. An algorithm using "q-metric" was developed to monitor the epidemic. Conclusion:Various post-lockdown scenarios were simulated. Trained manpower and ventilators were identified as key health-care constraints. Partial community containment measures will require to be continued after the current lockdown is lifted.

SUBMITTER: Chatterjee K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7301789 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Coronavirus disease 2019 in India: Post-lockdown scenarios and provisioning for health care.

Chatterjee Kaushik K Shankar Subramanian S Chatterjee Kaustuv K Yadav Arun Kumar AK

Medical journal, Armed Forces India 20200618 4

<h4>Background</h4>With the rise of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in India, lockdown was imposed from March 25, 2020. We studied post-lockdown scenarios and evaluated health-care constraints. Our aim was to identify the scenarios in which health-care availability would not be overwhelmed.<h4>Methods</h4>A modified compartmental SEIR stochastic model was used to calculate peak cases at various levels of effectiveness of prevention of transmission. Health-care constraints were evaluate ...[more]

PMID: 32836711

Similar Datasets

Project description:ImportanceHealth care workers exposed to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) could be psychologically stressed.ObjectiveTo assess the magnitude of mental health outcomes and associated factors among health care workers treating patients exposed to COVID-19 in China.Design, settings, and participantsThis cross-sectional, survey-based, region-stratified study collected demographic data and mental health measurements from 1257 health care workers in 34 hospitals from January 29, 2020, to February 3, 2020, in China. Health care workers in hospitals equipped with fever clinics or wards for patients with COVID-19 were eligible.Main outcomes and measuresThe degree of symptoms of depression, anxiety, insomnia, and distress was assessed by the Chinese versions of the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire, the 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale, the 7-item Insomnia Severity Index, and the 22-item Impact of Event Scale-Revised, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with mental health outcomes.ResultsA total of 1257 of 1830 contacted individuals completed the survey, with a participation rate of 68.7%. A total of 813 (64.7%) were aged 26 to 40 years, and 964 (76.7%) were women. Of all participants, 764 (60.8%) were nurses, and 493 (39.2%) were physicians; 760 (60.5%) worked in hospitals in Wuhan, and 522 (41.5%) were frontline health care workers. A considerable proportion of participants reported symptoms of depression (634 [50.4%]), anxiety (560 [44.6%]), insomnia (427 [34.0%]), and distress (899 [71.5%]). Nurses, women, frontline health care workers, and those working in Wuhan, China, reported more severe degrees of all measurements of mental health symptoms than other health care workers (eg, median [IQR] Patient Health Questionnaire scores among physicians vs nurses: 4.0 [1.0-7.0] vs 5.0 [2.0-8.0]; P = .007; median [interquartile range {IQR}] Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale scores among men vs women: 2.0 [0-6.0] vs 4.0 [1.0-7.0]; P < .001; median [IQR] Insomnia Severity Index scores among frontline vs second-line workers: 6.0 [2.0-11.0] vs 4.0 [1.0-8.0]; P < .001; median [IQR] Impact of Event Scale-Revised scores among those in Wuhan vs those in Hubei outside Wuhan and those outside Hubei: 21.0 [8.5-34.5] vs 18.0 [6.0-28.0] in Hubei outside Wuhan and 15.0 [4.0-26.0] outside Hubei; P < .001). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed participants from outside Hubei province were associated with lower risk of experiencing symptoms of distress compared with those in Wuhan (odds ratio [OR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.43-0.88; P = .008). Frontline health care workers engaged in direct diagnosis, treatment, and care of patients with COVID-19 were associated with a higher risk of symptoms of depression (OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.11-2.09; P = .01), anxiety (OR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.22-2.02; P < .001), insomnia (OR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.92-4.60; P < .001), and distress (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.25-2.04; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceIn this survey of heath care workers in hospitals equipped with fever clinics or wards for patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan and other regions in China, participants reported experiencing psychological burden, especially nurses, women, those in Wuhan, and frontline health care workers directly engaged in the diagnosis, treatment, and care for patients with COVID-19.

Project description:BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has severely affected ICUs and critical care health-care providers (HCPs) worldwide.Research questionHow do regional differences and perceived lack of ICU resources affect critical care resource use and the well-being of HCPs?Study design and methodsBetween April 23 and May 7, 2020, we electronically administered a 41-question survey to interdisciplinary HCPs caring for patients critically ill with COVID-19. The survey was distributed via critical care societies, research networks, personal contacts, and social media portals. Responses were tabulated according to World Bank region. We performed multivariate log-binomial regression to assess factors associated with three main outcomes: limiting mechanical ventilation (MV), changes in CPR practices, and emotional distress and burnout.ResultsWe included 2,700 respondents from 77 countries, including physicians (41%), nurses (40%), respiratory therapists (11%), and advanced practice providers (8%). The reported lack of ICU nurses was higher than that of intensivists (32% vs 15%). Limiting MV for patients with COVID-19 was reported by 16% of respondents, was lowest in North America (10%), and was associated with reduced ventilator availability (absolute risk reduction [ARR], 2.10; 95% CI, 1.61-2.74). Overall, 66% of respondents reported changes in CPR practices. Emotional distress or burnout was high across regions (52%, highest in North America) and associated with being female (mechanical ventilation, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.01-1.33), being a nurse (ARR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.13-1.53), reporting a shortage of ICU nurses (ARR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.05-1.33), reporting a shortage of powered air-purifying respirators (ARR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.09-1.55), and experiencing poor communication from supervisors (ARR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.16-1.46).InterpretationOur findings demonstrate variability in ICU resource availability and use worldwide. The high prevalence of provider burnout and its association with reported insufficient resources and poor communication from supervisors suggest a need for targeted interventions to support HCPs on the front lines.

Project description:Background and aimsRestructuring activities have been necessary during the lockdown phase of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Few data are available on the post-lockdown phase in terms of health-care procedures in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) care, and no data are available specifically from IBD units. We aimed to investigate how IBD management was restructured during the lockdown phase, the impact of the restructuring on standards of care and how Italian IBD units have managed post-lockdown activities.MethodsA web-based online survey was conducted in two phases (April and June 2020) among the Italian Group for IBD affiliated units within the entire country. We investigated preventive measures, the possibility of continuing scheduled visits/procedures/therapies because of COVID-19 and how units resumed activities in the post-lockdown phase.ResultsForty-two referral centres participated from all over Italy. During the COVID-19 lockdown, 36% of first visits and 7% of follow-up visits were regularly done, while >70% of follow-up scheduled visits and 5% of first visits were done virtually. About 25% of scheduled endoscopies and bowel ultrasound scans were done. More than 80% of biological therapies were done as scheduled. Compared to the pre-lockdown situation, 95% of centres modified management of outpatient activity, 93% of endoscopies, 59% of gastrointestinal ultrasounds and 33% of biological therapies. Resumption of activities after the lockdown phase may take three to six months to normalize. Virtual clinics, implementation of IBD pathways and facilities seem to be the main factors to improve care in the future.ConclusionItalian IBD unit restructuring allowed quality standards of care during the COVID-19 pandemic to be maintained. A return to normal appears to be feasible and achievable relatively quickly. Some approaches, such as virtual clinics and identified IBD pathways, represent a valid starting point to improve IBD care in the post-COVID-19 era.

Dataset Information

Coronavirus disease 2019 in India: Post-lockdown scenarios and provisioning for health care.

Publications

Coronavirus disease 2019 in India: Post-lockdown scenarios and provisioning for health care.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets