Dynamics of COVID-19 under social distancing measures are driven by transmission network structure.

ABSTRACT: In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing is being used worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. The impact of these measures has been inconsistent, with some regions rapidly nearing disease elimination and others seeing delayed peaks or nearly flat epidemic curves. Here we build a stochastic epidemic model to examine the effects of COVID-19 clinical progression and transmission network structure on the outcomes of social distancing interventions. Our simulations show that long delays between the adoption of control measures and observed declines in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occur in many scenarios. We find that the strength of within-household transmission is a critical determinant of success, governing the timing and size of the epidemic peak, the rate

SUBMITTER: Nande A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7302300 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature