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COVID-19 and climate: global evidence from 117 countries.


ABSTRACT: Visual inspection of world maps shows that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is less prevalent in countries closer to the equator, where heat and humidity tend to be higher. Scientists disagree how to interpret this observation because the relationship between COVID-19 and climatic conditions may be confounded by many factors. We regress confirmed COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants in a country against the country's distance from the equator, controlling key confounding factors: air travel, distance to Wuhan, testing intensity, cell phone usage, vehicle concentration, urbanization, and income. A one-degree increase in absolute latitude is associated with a 2.6% increase in cases per million inhabitants (p value <0.001). The Northern hemisphere may see a decline in new COVID-19 cases during summer and a resurgence during winter.

SUBMITTER: Chen S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7302306 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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COVID-19 and climate: global evidence from 117 countries.

Chen Simiao S   Prettner Klaus K   Kuhn Michael M   Geldsetzer Pascal P   Wang Chen C   Bärnighausen Till T   Bloom David E DE  

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences 20200605


Visual inspection of world maps shows that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is less prevalent in countries closer to the equator, where heat and humidity tend to be higher. Scientists disagree how to interpret this observation because the relationship between COVID-19 and climatic conditions may be confounded by many factors. We regress confirmed COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants in a country against the country's distance from the equator, controlling key confounding factors: air travel  ...[more]

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