Dataset Information

Biased Affective Forecasting: A Potential Mechanism That Enhances Resilience and Well-Being.

ABSTRACT: According to a growing body of studies, people's ability to forecast future emotional experiences is generally biased. Nonetheless, the existing literature has mainly explored affective forecasting in relation to specific events, whereas little is still known about the ability to make general estimations of future emotional states. Based on existing evidence suggesting future-oriented disposition as a key factor for mental health, the aims of the current study were (1) to investigate the relationship between negative (NA) and positive (PA) affective forecasting biases and perceived psychological well-being, and (2) to explore whether positively biased predictions are associated with resilience and foster one's skills to cope with stressful events. To do so, we asked 85 undergraduate students to forecast PA and NA over 2 weeks, as well as to report their daily affect through a web-based Ecological Momentary Assessment. According to the results, positively biased PA forecasting (i.e., overestimating positive emotional states) was associated with greater perceived psychological well-being and higher resilience. When high levels of stress were experienced, participants holding an optimistic, yet biased, estimation of future PA were more likely to successfully manage stressors, thus maintaining lower levels of NA and higher levels of positive emotions. We suggest that positively biased PA forecasting is an adaptive cognitive distortion that boosts people's resilience and mental health, thus opening new avenues for the promotion of psychological well-being.

SUBMITTER: Colombo D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7304283 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Biased Affective Forecasting: A Potential Mechanism That Enhances Resilience and Well-Being.

Colombo Desirée D Fernández-Álvarez Javier J Suso-Ribera Carlos C Cipresso Pietro P García-Palacios Azucena A Riva Giuseppe G Botella Cristina C

Frontiers in psychology 20200612

According to a growing body of studies, people's ability to forecast future emotional experiences is generally biased. Nonetheless, the existing literature has mainly explored affective forecasting in relation to specific events, whereas little is still known about the ability to make general estimations of future emotional states. Based on existing evidence suggesting future-oriented disposition as a key factor for mental health, the aims of the current study were (1) to investigate the relatio ...[more]

PMID: 32595578

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Project description:Social scientists have postulated that the discrepancy between achievements and expectations affects individuals' subjective well-being. Still, little has been done to qualify and quantify such a psychological effect. Our empirical analysis assesses the consequences of positive and negative affective forecasting errors-the difference between realized and expected subjective well-being-on the subsequent level of subjective well-being.We use longitudinal data on a representative sample of 13,431 individuals from the German Socio-Economic Panel. In our sample, 52% of individuals are females, average age is 43 years, average years of education is 11.4 and 27% of our sample lives in East Germany. Subjective well-being (measured by self-reported life satisfaction) is assessed on a 0-10 discrete scale and its sample average is equal to 6.75 points.We develop a simple theoretical framework to assess the consequences of positive and negative affective forecasting errors-the difference between realized and expected subjective well-being-on the subsequent level of subjective well-being, properly accounting for the endogenous adjustment of expectations to positive and negative affective forecasting errors, and use it to derive testable predictions. Given the theoretical framework, we estimate two panel-data equations, the first depicting the association between positive and negative affective forecasting errors and the successive level of subjective well-being and the second describing the correlation between subjective well-being expectations for the future and hedonic failures and successes. Our models control for individual fixed effects and a large battery of time-varying demographic characteristics, health and socio-economic status.While surpassing expectations is uncorrelated with subjective well-being, failing to match expectations is negatively associated with subsequent realizations of subjective well-being. Expectations are positively (negatively) correlated to positive (negative) forecasting errors. We speculate that in the first case the positive adjustment in expectations is strong enough to cancel out the potential positive effects on subjective well-being of beaten expectations, while in the second case it is not, and individuals persistently bear the negative emotional consequences of not achieving expectations.

Project description:Resilience and well-being are strongly related. People with higher levels of well-being are more resilient after stressful life events or trauma and vice versa. Less is known about the underlying sources of overlap and causality between the constructs. In a sample of 11.304 twins and 2.572 siblings from the Netherlands Twin Register, we investigated the overlap and possible direction of causation between resilience (i.e. the absence of psychiatric symptoms despite negative life events) and well-being (i.e. satisfaction with life) using polygenic score (PGS) prediction, twin-sibling modelling, and the Mendelian Randomization Direction of Causality (MR-DoC) model. Longitudinal twin-sibling models showed significant phenotypic correlations between resilience and well-being (.41/.51 at time 1 and 2). Well-being PGS were predictive for both well-being and resilience, indicating that genetic factors influencing well-being also predict resilience. Twin-sibling modeling confirmed this genetic correlation (0.71) and showed a strong environmental correlation (0.93). In line with causality, both genetic (51%) and environmental (49%) factors contributed significantly to the covariance between resilience and well-being. Furthermore, the results of within-subject and MZ twin differences analyses were in line with bidirectional causality. Additionally, we used the MR-DoC model combining both molecular and twin data to test causality, while correcting for pleiotropy. We confirmed the causal effect from well-being to resilience, with the direct effect of well-being explaining 11% (T1) and 20% (T2) of the variance in resilience. Data limitations prevented us to test the directional effect from resilience to well-being with the MR-DoC model. To conclude, we showed a strong relation between well-being and resilience. A first attempt to quantify the direction of this relationship points towards a bidirectional causal effect. If replicated, the potential mutual effects can have implications for interventions to lower psychopathology vulnerability, as resilience and well-being are both negatively related to psychopathology.

Project description:BackgroundResilience is a protective factor in healthy aging, helping to maintain and recover physical and mental functions. The Resilience in Illness Model has proven effective in fostering resilience and well-being. Physical activity is crucial for older adults' independence and well-being, even as aging causes a progressive decline. Additionally, older adults face challenges such as spousal loss and physical disability, making preventive intervention strategies necessary.ObjectiveThis study aims to develop and evaluate a web-based program to enhance resilience, physical activity, and well-being among community-dwelling older adults. Additionally, we aim to gather feedback on the program's strengths and limitations.MethodsA 4-week resilience-enhancing program was created, incorporating role-play and talk-in-interaction and focusing on 3 key skills: coping, control belief, and manageability. The program included scenarios such as becoming widowed and suffering a stroke, designed to engage older adults. A pilot test preceded the intervention. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the program shifted from in-person to web-based sessions. A single-blind, parallel-group, randomized controlled trial was conducted. Participants aged over 65 years were recruited offline and randomly assigned to either an intervention or control group. A certified resilience practitioner delivered the program. Outcomes in resilience, physical activity, and well-being were self-assessed at baseline (T0), 4 weeks (T1), and 12 weeks (T2) after the program. A mixed methods approach was used to evaluate feedback.ResultsA web-based participatory program enhancing 3 skills-coping, control belief, and manageability for resilience-was well developed. Among 96 participants, 63 were randomized into the intervention group (n=31) and the control group (n=32). The mean age in the intervention group was 69.27 (SD 3.08) years and 74.84 (SD 6.23) years in the control group. Significant between-group differences at baseline were found in age (t45.6=-4.53, P<.001) and physical activity at baseline (t61=2.92, P=.005). No statistically significant between-group differences over time were observed in resilience (SE 7.49, 95% CI -10.74 to 18.61, P=.60), physical activity (SE 15.18, 95% CI -24.74 to 34.74, P=.74), and well-being (SE 3.74, 95% CI -2.68 to 11.98, P=.21) after controlling for baseline differences. The dropout rate was lower in the intervention group (2/31, 6%) compared with the control group (5/32, 16%). Moreover, 77% (24/31) of participants in the intervention group completed the entire program. Program feedback from the participants indicated high satisfaction with the web-based format and mentorship support.ConclusionsThis study demonstrated that a web-based resilience-enhancing program is appropriate, acceptable, feasible, and engaging for community-dwelling older adults. The program garnered enthusiasm for its potential to optimize resilience, physical activity, and well-being, with mentorship playing a crucial role in its success. Future studies should aim to refine program content, engagement, and delivery methods to effectively promote healthy aging in this population.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT05808491; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05808491.

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Biased Affective Forecasting: A Potential Mechanism That Enhances Resilience and Well-Being.

Publications

Biased Affective Forecasting: A Potential Mechanism That Enhances Resilience and Well-Being.

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