Risk Profiles of Financial Service Portfolio for Women Segment Using Machine Learning Algorithms
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Krzhizhanovskaya V
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7304698 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundEfforts to improve the value of care for high-cost patients may benefit from care management strategies targeted at clinically distinct subgroups of patients.ObjectiveTo evaluate the performance of three different machine learning algorithms for identifying subgroups of high-cost patients.DesignWe applied three different clustering algorithms-connectivity-based clustering using agglomerative hierarchical clustering, centroid-based clustering with the k-medoids algorithm, and density-based clustering with the OPTICS algorithm-to a clinical and administrative dataset. We then examined the extent to which each algorithm identified subgroups of patients that were (1) clinically distinct and (2) associated with meaningful differences in relevant utilization metrics.ParticipantsPatients enrolled in a national Medicare Advantage plan, categorized in the top decile of spending (n?=?6154).Main measuresPost hoc discriminative models comparing the importance of variables for distinguishing observations in one cluster from the rest. Variance in utilization and spending measures.Key resultsConnectivity-based, centroid-based, and density-based clustering identified eight, five, and ten subgroups of high-cost patients, respectively. Post hoc discriminative models indicated that density-based clustering subgroups were the most clinically distinct. The variance of utilization and spending measures was the greatest among the subgroups identified through density-based clustering.ConclusionsMachine learning algorithms can be used to segment a high-cost patient population into subgroups of patients that are clinically distinct and associated with meaningful differences in utilization and spending measures. For these purposes, density-based clustering with the OPTICS algorithm outperformed connectivity-based and centroid-based clustering algorithms.
| S-EPMC6374273 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNumerous studies have revealed the relationship between lipid expression and increased cardiovascular risk in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. Nevertheless, few investigations have focused on the risk stratification of STEMI patients using machine learning algorithms.MethodsA total of 1355 STEMI patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention were enrolled in this study during 2015-2018. Unsupervised machine learning (consensus clustering) was applied to the present cohort to classify patients into different lipid expression phenogroups, without the guidance of clinical outcomes. Kaplan-Meier curves were implemented to show prognosis during a 904-day median follow-up (interquartile range: 587-1316). In the adjusted Cox model, the association of cluster membership with all adverse events including all-cause mortality, all-cause rehospitalization, and cardiac rehospitalization was evaluated.ResultsAll patients were classified into three phenogroups, 1, 2, and 3. Patients in phenogroup 1 with the highest Lp(a) and the lowest HDL-C and apoA1 were recognized as the statin-modified cardiovascular risk group. Patients in phenogroup 2 had the highest HDL-C and apoA1 and the lowest TG, TC, LDL-C and apoB. Conversely, patients in phenogroup 3 had the highest TG, TC, LDL-C and apoB and the lowest Lp(a). Additionally, phenogroup 1 had the worst prognosis. Furthermore, a multivariate Cox analysis revealed that patients in phenogroup 1 were at significantly higher risk for all adverse outcomes.ConclusionMachine learning-based cluster analysis indicated that STEMI patients with increased concentrations of Lp(a) and decreased concentrations of HDL-C and apoA1 are likely to have adverse clinical outcomes due to statin-modified cardiovascular risks.Trial registrationChiCTR1900028516 ( http://www.chictr.org.cn/index.aspx ).
| S-EPMC8101132 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMachine learning is a branch of Artificial Intelligence that is concerned with the design and development of algorithms, and it enables today's computers to have the property of learning. Machine learning is gradually growing and becoming a critical approach in many domains such as health, education, and business.MethodsIn this paper, we applied machine learning to the diabetes dataset with the aim of recognizing patterns and combinations of factors that characterizes or explain re-admission among diabetes patients. The classifiers used include Linear Discriminant Analysis, Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Naïve Bayes, J48 and Support vector machine.ResultsOf the 100,000 cases, 78,363 were diabetic and over 47% were readmitted.Based on the classes that models produced, diabetic patients who are more likely to be readmitted are either women, or Caucasians, or outpatients, or those who undergo less rigorous lab procedures, treatment procedures, or those who receive less medication, and are thus discharged without proper improvements or administration of insulin despite having been tested positive for HbA1c.ConclusionDiabetic patients who do not undergo vigorous lab assessments, diagnosis, medications are more likely to be readmitted when discharged without improvements and without receiving insulin administration, especially if they are women, Caucasians, or both.
| S-EPMC6907102 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study developed a machine learning algorithm to predict gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) using retrospective data from 34,387 pregnancies in multi-centers of South Korea. Variables were collected at baseline, E0 (until 10 weeks' gestation), E1 (11-13 weeks' gestation) and M1 (14-24 weeks' gestation). The data set was randomly divided into training and test sets (7:3 ratio) to compare the performances of light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithms, with a full set of variables (original). A prediction model with the whole cohort achieved area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPR) values of 0.711 and 0.246 at baseline, 0.720 and 0.256 at E0, 0.721 and 0.262 at E1, and 0.804 and 0.442 at M1, respectively. Then comparison of three models with different variable sets were performed: [a] variables from clinical guidelines; [b] selected variables from Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) values; and [c] Boruta algorithms. Based on model [c] with the least variables and similar or better performance than the other models, simple questionnaires were developed. The combined use of maternal factors and laboratory data could effectively predict individual risk of GDM using a machine learning model.
| S-EPMC10432552 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Everolimus is an immunosuppressant with a small therapeutic index and large between-patient variability. The area under the concentration versus time curve (AUC) is the best marker of exposure but measuring it requires collecting many blood samples. The objective of this study was to train machine learning (ML) algorithms using pharmacokinetic (PK) profiles from kidney transplant recipients, simulated profiles, or both types, and compare their performance for everolimus AUC0-12h estimation using a limited number of predictors, as compared to an independent set of full PK profiles from patients, as well as to the corresponding maximum a posteriori Bayesian estimates (MAP-BE). XGBoost was first trained on 508 patient interdose AUCs estimated using MAP-BE, and then on 500-10,000 rich interdose PK profiles simulated using previously published population PK parameters. The predictors used were: predose, ~1 h, and ~2 h whole blood concentrations, differences between these concentrations, relative deviations from theoretical sampling times, morning dose, patient age, and time elapsed since transplantation. The best results were obtained with XGBoost trained on 5016 simulated profiles. AUC estimation achieved in an external dataset of 114 full-PK profiles was excellent (root mean squared error [RMSE] = 10.8 μg*h/L) and slightly better than MAP-BE (RMSE = 11.9 μg*h/L). Using more profiles (n = 10,035) did not improve the ML algorithm performance. The contribution of mixing patient and simulated profiles was significant only when they were in balanced numbers, with ~500 for each (RMSE = 12.5 μg*h/L), compared with patient data alone (RMSE = 18.0 μg*h/L).
| S-EPMC9381914 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objectives: The identification of subgroups of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) may partially remedy the problems of clinical heterogeneity to facilitate the improvement of clinical management. The current study aims to use machine learning algorithms to analyze microarray data to identify clusters with relatively homogeneous clinical features. Methods: The whole-genome gene expression microarray data were used to predict communication quotient (SCQ) scores against all probes to select differential expression regions (DERs). Gene set enrichment analysis was performed for DERs with a fold-change >2 to identify hub pathways that play a role in the severity of social communication deficits inherent to ASD. We then used two machine learning methods, random forest classification (RF) and support vector machine (SVM), to identify two clusters using DERs. Finally, we evaluated how accurately the clusters predicted language impairment. Results: A total of 191 DERs were initially identified, and 54 of them with a fold-change >2 were selected for the pathway analysis. Cholesterol biosynthesis and metabolisms pathways appear to act as hubs that connect other trait-associated pathways to influence the severity of social communication deficits inherent to ASD. Both RF and SVM algorithms can yield a classification accuracy level >90% when all 191 DERs were analyzed. The ASD subtypes defined by the presence of language impairment, a strong indicator for prognosis, can be predicted by transcriptomic profiles associated with social communication deficits and cholesterol biosynthesis and metabolism. Conclusion: The results suggest that both RF and SVM are acceptable options for machine learning algorithms to identify AD subgroups characterized by clinical homogeneity related to prognosis.
| S-EPMC8149626 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo screen for predictive obesity factors in overweight populations using an optimal and interpretable machine learning algorithm.MethodsThis cross-sectional study was conducted between June 2011 and January 2012. The participants were randomly selected using a simple random sampling technique. Seven commonly used machine learning methods were employed to construct obesity risk prediction models. A total of 5,236 Chinese participants from Ningde City, Fujian Province, Southeast China, participated in this study. The best model was selected through appropriate verification and validation and suitably explained. Subsequently, a minimal set of significant predictors was identified. The Shapley additive explanation force plot was used to illustrate the model at the individual level.ResultsMachine learning models for predicting obesity have demonstrated strong performance, with CatBoost emerging as the most effective in both model validity and net clinical benefit. Specifically, the CatBoost algorithm yielded the highest scores, registering 0.91 in the training set and an impressive 0.83 in the test set. This was further corroborated by the area under the curve (AUC) metrics, where CatBoost achieved 0.95 for the training set and 0.87 for the test set. In a rigorous five-fold cross-validation, the AUC for the CatBoost model ranged between 0.84 and 0.91, with an average AUC of ROC at 0.87 ± 0.022. Key predictors identified within these models included waist circumference, hip circumference, female gender, and systolic blood pressure.ConclusionCatBoost may be the best machine learning method for prediction. Combining Shapley's additive explanation and machine learning methods can be effective in identifying disease risk factors for prevention and control.
| S-EPMC10693451 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We aimed to develop, train, and validate machine learning models for predicting preterm birth (<37 weeks' gestation) in singleton pregnancies at different gestational intervals. Models were developed based on complete data from 22,603 singleton pregnancies from a prospective population-based cohort study that was conducted in 51 midwifery clinics and hospitals in Wenzhou City of China between 2014 and 2016. We applied Catboost, Random Forest, Stacked Model, Deep Neural Networks (DNN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms, as well as logistic regression, to conduct feature selection and predictive modeling. Feature selection was implemented based on permutation-based feature importance lists derived from the machine learning models including all features, using a balanced training data set. To develop prediction models, the top 10%, 25%, and 50% most important predictive features were selected. Prediction models were developed with the training data set with 5-fold cross-validation for internal validation. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) values. The CatBoost-based prediction model after 26 weeks' gestation performed best with an AUC value of 0.70 (0.67, 0.73), accuracy of 0.81, sensitivity of 0.47, and specificity of 0.83. Number of antenatal care visits before 24 weeks' gestation, aspartate aminotransferase level at registration, symphysis fundal height, maternal weight, abdominal circumference, and blood pressure emerged as strong predictors after 26 completed weeks. The application of machine learning on pregnancy surveillance data is a promising approach to predict preterm birth and we identified several modifiable antenatal predictors.
| S-EPMC10941650 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The prediction of the liver failure (LF) and its proper diagnosis would lead to a reduction in the complications of the disease and prevents the progress of the disease. To improve the treatment of LF patients and reduce the cost of treatment, we build a machine learning model to forecast whether a patient would deteriorate after admission to the hospital. First, a total of 348 LF patients were included from May 2011 to March 2018 retrospectively in this study. Then, 15 key clinical indicators are selected as the input of the machine learning algorithm. Finally, machine learning and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) are used to forecast the LF deterioration. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) of MELD, GLMs, CART, SVM and NNET with 10 fold-cross validation was 0.670, 0.554, 0.794, 0.853 and 0.912 respectively. Additionally, the accuracy of MELD, GLMs, CART, SVM and NNET was 0.669, 0.456, 0.794, 0.853 and 0.912. The predictive performance of the developed machine model execept the GLMs exceeds the classic MELD model. The machine learning method could support the physicians to trigger the initiation of timely treatment for the LD patients.
| S-EPMC7546449 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Rising global population and climate change realities dictate that agricultural productivity must be accelerated. Results from current traditional research approaches are difficult to extrapolate to all possible fields because they are dependent on specific soil types, weather conditions, and background management combinations that are not applicable nor translatable to all farms. A method that accurately evaluates the effectiveness of infinite cropping system interactions (involving multiple management practices) to increase maize and soybean yield across the US does not exist. Here, we utilize extensive databases and artificial intelligence algorithms and show that complex interactions, which cannot be evaluated in replicated trials, are associated with large crop yield variability and thus, potential for substantial yield increases. Our approach can accelerate agricultural research, identify sustainable practices, and help overcome future food demands.
| S-EPMC8429560 | biostudies-literature