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Risk factors for disease progression in COVID-19 patients.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading worldwide. Although 10-20% of patients with COVID-19 have severe symptoms, little is known about the risk factors related to the aggravation of COVID-19 symptoms from asymptomatic or mild to severe disease states. METHODS:This retrospective study included 211 patients who were asymptomatic or with mild presentations of COVID-19. We evaluated the differences in demographic and clinical data between the cured (discharged to home) and transferred (aggravated to severe-stage COVID-19) groups. RESULTS:A multivariate logistic analysis showed that body temperature, chills, initial chest X-ray findings, and the presence of diabetes were significantly associated with predicting the progression to severe stage of COVID-19 (p??37.5?°C, findings of pneumonia in chest X-ray, or diabetes.

SUBMITTER: Chang MC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7309210 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk factors for disease progression in COVID-19 patients.

Chang Min Cheol MC Park Yu-Kyung YK Kim Bong-Ok BO Park Donghwi D

BMC infectious diseases 20200623 1

<h4>Background</h4>Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading worldwide. Although 10-20% of patients with COVID-19 have severe symptoms, little is known about the risk factors related to the aggravation of COVID-19 symptoms from asymptomatic or mild to severe disease states.<h4>Methods</h4>This retrospective study included 211 patients who were asymptomatic or with mild presentations of COVID-19. We evaluated the differences in demographic and clinical data between the cured (discharged ...[more]

PMID: 32576139

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Project description:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), defined by the World Health Organization (WHO), has affected more than 50 million patients worldwide and caused a global public health emergency. Therefore, there is a recognized need to identify risk factors for COVID-19 severity and mortality. A systematic search of electronic databases (PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library) for studies published before September 29, 2020, was performed. Studies that investigated risk factors for progression and mortality in COVID-19 patients were included. A total 344,431 participants from 34 studies were included in this meta-analysis. Regarding comorbidities, cerebrovascular disease (CVD), chronic kidney disease (CKD), coronary heart disease (CHD), and malignancy were associated with an increased risk of progression and mortality in COVID-19 patients. Regarding clinical manifestations, sputum production was associated with a dramatically increased risk of progression and mortality. Hemoptysis was a risk factor for death in COVID-19 patients. In laboratory examinations, increased neutrophil count, decreased lymphocyte count, decreased platelet count, increased C-reactive protein (CRP), coinfection with bacteria or fungi, increased alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and creatine kinase (CK), increased N-terminal pronatriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and bilateral pneumonia in CT/X-ray were significantly more frequent in the severe group compared with the non-severe group. Moreover, the proportion of patients with increased CRP and total bilirubin (TBIL) was also significantly higher in the deceased group than in the survival group. CVD, CKD, sputum production, increased neutrophil count, decreased lymphocyte count, decreased platelet count, increased CRP, coinfection with bacteria or fungi, increased ALT and CK, increased NT-proBNP, and bilateral pneumonia in CT/X-ray were associated with an increased risk of progression in COVID-19 patients. Moreover, the proportion of patients with increased sputum production, hemoptysis, CRP and TBIL was also significantly higher in the deceased group.

Project description:BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to escalate intensively worldwide. Massive studies on general populations with SARS-CoV-2 infection have revealed that pre-existing comorbidities were a major risk factor for the poor prognosis of COVID-19. Notably, 49-75% of COVID-19 patients had no comorbidities, but this cohort would also progress to severe COVID-19 or even death. However, risk factors contributing to disease progression and death in patients without chronic comorbidities are largely unknown; thus, specific clinical interventions for those patients are challenging.MethodsA multicenter, retrospective study based on 4806 COVID-19 patients without chronic comorbidities was performed to identify potential risk factors contributing to COVID-19 progression and death using LASSO and a stepwise logistic regression model.ResultsAmong 4806 patients without pre-existing comorbidities, the proportions with severe progression and mortality were 34.29% and 2.10%, respectively. The median age was 47.00 years [interquartile range, 36.00-56.00], and 2162 (44.99%) were men. Among 51 clinical parameters on admission, age ≥ 47, oxygen saturation < 95%, increased lactate dehydrogenase, neutrophil count, direct bilirubin, creatine phosphokinase, blood urea nitrogen levels, dyspnea, increased blood glucose and prothrombin time levels were associated with COVID-19 mortality in the entire cohort. Of the 3647 patients diagnosed with non-severe COVID-19 on admission, 489(13.41%) progressed to severe disease. The risk factors associated with COVID-19 progression from non-severe to severe illness were increased procalcitonin levels, SpO2 < 95%, age ≥ 47, increased LDH, activated partial thromboplastin time levels, decreased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, dyspnea and increased D-dimer levels.ConclusionsCOVID-19 patients without pre-existing chronic comorbidities have specific traits and disease patterns. COVID-19 accompanied by severe bacterial infections, as indicated by increased procalcitonin levels, was highly associated with disease progression from non-severe to severe. Aging, impaired respiratory function, coagulation dysfunction, tissue injury, and lipid metabolism dysregulation were also associated with disease progression. Once factors for multi-organ damage were elevated and glucose increased at admission, these findings indicated a higher risk for mortality. This study provides information that helps to predict COVID-19 prognosis specifically in patients without chronic comorbidities.

Project description:SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals ≥60 years old have the highest hospitalization rates and represent >80% fatalities. Within this population, those in long-term facilities represent >50% of the total COVID-19 related deaths per country. Among those without symptoms, the rate of pre-symptomatic illness is unclear, and potential predictors of progression for symptom development are unknown. Our objective was to delineate the natural evolution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in elders and identify determinants of progression. We established a medical surveillance team monitoring 63 geriatric institutions. When an index COVID-19 case emerged, we tested all other eligible asymptomatic elders ≥75 or >60 years old with at least 1 comorbidity. SARS-CoV-2 infected elders were followed for 28 days. Disease was diagnosed when any COVID-19 manifestation occurred. SARS-CoV-2 load at enrollment, shedding on day 15, and antibody responses were also studied. After 28 days of follow-up, 74/113(65%) SARS-CoV-2-infected elders remained asymptomatic. 21/39(54%) pre-symptomatic patients developed hypoxemia and ten pre-symptomatic patients died(median day 13.5,IQR 12). Dementia was the only clinical risk factor associated with disease(OR 2.41(95%CI=1.08, 5.39). In a multivariable logistic regression model, dementia remained as a risk factor for COVID-19 severe disease. Furthermore, dementia status showed a statistically significant different trend when assessing the cumulative probability of developing COVID-19 symptoms(log-rank p=0.027). On day 15, SARS-CoV-2 was detectable in 30% of the asymptomatic group while in 61% of the pre-symptomatic(p=0.012). No differences were observed among groups in RT-PCR mean cycle threshold at enrollment(p=0.391) and in the rates of antibody seropositivity(IgM and IgG against SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein). In summary, 2/3 of our cohort of SARS-CoV-2 infected elders from vulnerable communities in Argentina remained asymptomatic after 28 days of follow-up with high mortality among those developing symptoms. Dementia and persistent SARS-CoV-2 shedding were associated with progression from asymptomatic to symptomatic infection.

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Risk factors for disease progression in COVID-19 patients.

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Risk factors for disease progression in COVID-19 patients.

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