Dataset Information

Conditional Survival After Resection for Pancreatic Cancer: A Population-Based Study and Prediction Model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Conditional survival is the survival probability after already surviving a predefined time period. This may be informative during follow-up, especially when adjusted for tumor characteristics. Such prediction models for patients with resected pancreatic cancer are lacking and therefore conditional survival was assessed and a nomogram predicting 5-year survival at a predefined period after resection of pancreatic cancer was developed.

Methods

This population-based study included patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (2005-2016). Conditional survival was calculated as the median, and the probability of surviving up to 8 years in patients who already survived 0-5 years after resection was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. A prediction model was constructed.

Results

Overall, 3082 patients were included, with a median age of 67 years. Median overall survival was 18 months (95% confidence interval 17-18 months), with a 5-year survival of 15%. The 1-year conditional survival (i.e. probability of surviving the next year) increased from 55 to 74 to 86% at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively, while the median overall survival increased from 15 to 40 to 64 months at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively. The prediction model demonstrated that the probability of achieving 5-year survival at 1 year after surgery varied from 1 to 58% depending on patient and tumor characteristics.

Conclusions

This population-based study showed that 1-year conditional survival was 55% 1 year after resection and 74% 3 years after resection in patients with pancreatic cancer. The prediction model is available via www.pancreascalculator.com to inform patients and caregivers.

SUBMITTER: Latenstein AEJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7311496 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Conditional Survival After Resection for Pancreatic Cancer: A Population-Based Study and Prediction Model.

Latenstein Anouk E J AEJ van Roessel Stijn S van der Geest Lydia G M LGM Bonsing Bert A BA Dejong Cornelis H C CHC Groot Koerkamp Bas B de Hingh Ignace H J T IHJT Homs Marjolein Y V MYV Klaase Joost M JM Lemmens Valery V Molenaar I Quintus IQ Steyerberg Ewout W EW Stommel Martijn W J MWJ Busch Olivier R OR van Eijck Casper H J CHJ van Laarhoven Hanneke W M HWM Wilmink Johanna W JW Besselink Marc G MG

Annals of surgical oncology 20200212 7

<h4>Background</h4>Conditional survival is the survival probability after already surviving a predefined time period. This may be informative during follow-up, especially when adjusted for tumor characteristics. Such prediction models for patients with resected pancreatic cancer are lacking and therefore conditional survival was assessed and a nomogram predicting 5-year survival at a predefined period after resection of pancreatic cancer was developed.<h4>Methods</h4>This population-based study ...[more]

PMID: 32052299

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Dataset Information

Conditional Survival After Resection for Pancreatic Cancer: A Population-Based Study and Prediction Model.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Conditional Survival After Resection for Pancreatic Cancer: A Population-Based Study and Prediction Model.

Similar Datasets

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