Dataset Information

A comparative study of two methods to predict the incidence of hepatitis B in Guangxi, China.

ABSTRACT: In recent years, the incidence of hepatitis B (HB) in Guangxi is higher than that of the national level; it has been increasing, so it is urgent to do a good predictive research of HB incidence, which can help analyze the early warning of hepatitis B in Guangxi, China. In the study, the feasibility of predicting HB incidence in Guangxi by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model method and Elman neural network (ElmanNN) method was discussed respectively, and the prediction accuracy of the two models was compared. Finally, we established the ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model and ElmanNN with 8 neurons. Both ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model and ElmanNN model had good performance, and their prediction accuracy were high. The fitting and prediction root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of ElmanNN were smaller than those of ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model, which indicated that ElmanNN was superior to ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model in predicting the incidence of hepatitis B in Guangxi. Based on the ElmanNN, the HB incidence from September 2019 to December 2020 in Guangxi was predicted, the predicted results showed that the incidence of HB in 2020 was slightly higher than that in 2019 and the change trend was similar to that in 2019, for 2021 and beyond, the ElmanNN model could be used to continue the predictive analysis.

SUBMITTER: Zheng Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7314421 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A comparative study of two methods to predict the incidence of hepatitis B in Guangxi, China.

Zheng Yanling Y Zhang Liping L Zhu XiXun X Guo Gang G

PloS one 20200624 6

In recent years, the incidence of hepatitis B (HB) in Guangxi is higher than that of the national level; it has been increasing, so it is urgent to do a good predictive research of HB incidence, which can help analyze the early warning of hepatitis B in Guangxi, China. In the study, the feasibility of predicting HB incidence in Guangxi by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model method and Elman neural network (ElmanNN) method was discussed respectively, and the prediction accuracy ...[more]

PMID: 32579598

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Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) remains a serious public health problem with substantial financial burden in China. The incidence of TB in Guangxi province is much higher than that in the national level, however, there is no predictive study of TB in recent years in Guangxi, therefore, it is urgent to construct a model to predict the incidence of TB, which could provide help for the prevention and control of TB.MethodsBox-Jenkins model methods have been successfully applied to predict the incidence of infectious disease. In this study, based on the analysis of TB incidence in Guangxi from January 2012 to June 2019, we constructed TB prediction model by Box-Jenkins methods, and used root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to test the performance and prediction accuracy of model.ResultsFrom January 2012 to June 2019, a total of 587,344 cases of TB were reported and 879 cases died in Guangxi. Based on TB incidence from January 2012 to December 2018, the SARIMA((2),0,(2))(0,1,0)12 model was established, the AIC and SC of this model were 2.87 and 2.98, the fitting accuracy indexes, such as RMSE, MAE and MAPE were 0.98, 0.77 and 5.8 respectively; the prediction accuracy indexes, such as RMSE, MAE and MAPE were 0.62, 0.45 and 3.77, respectively. Based on the SARIMA((2),0,(2))(0,1,0)12 model, we predicted the TB incidence in Guangxi from July 2019 to December 2020.ConclusionsThis study filled the gap in the prediction of TB incidence in Guangxi in recent years. The established SARIMA((2),0,(2))(0,1,0)12 model has high prediction accuracy and good prediction performance. The results suggested the change trend of TB incidence predicted by SARIMA((2),0,(2))(0,1,0)12 model from July 2019 to December 2020 was similar to that in the previous two years, and TB incidence will experience slight decrease, the predicted results can provide scientific reference for the prevention and control of TB in Guangxi, China.

Project description:Anopheles sinensis is a major vector of malaria in China. The gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA)-gated chloride channel, encoded by the RDL (Resistant to dieldrin) gene, is the important target for insecticides of widely varied structures. The use of various insecticides in agriculture and vector control has inevitably led to the development of insecticide resistance, which may reduce the control effectiveness. Therefore, it is important to investigate the presence and distribution frequency of the resistance related mutation(s) in An. sinensis RDL to predict resistance to both the withdrawn cyclodienes (e.g. dieldrin) and currently used insecticides, such as fipronil.Two hundred and forty adults of An. sinensis collected from nine locations across Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region were used. Two fragments of An. sinensis RDL (AsRDL) gene, covering the putative insecticide resistance related sites, were sequenced respectively. The haplotypes of each individual were reconstructed by the PHASE2.1 software, and confirmed by clone sequencing. The phylogenetic tree was built using maximum-likelihood and Bayesian inference methods. Genealogical relations among different haplotypes were also analysed using Network 5.0.The coding region of AsRDL gene was 1674 bp long, encoding a protein of 557 amino acids. AsRDL had 98.0% amino acid identity to that from Anopheles funestus, and shared common structural features of Cys-loop ligand-gated ion channels. Three resistance-related amino acid substitutions (A296S, V327I and T345S) were detected in all the nine populations of An. sinensis in Guangxi, with the 296S mutation being the most abundant (77-100%), followed by 345S (22-47%) and 327I (8-60%). 38 AsRDL haplotypes were identified from 240 individuals at frequencies ranging from 0.2 to 34.8%. Genealogical analysis suggested multiple origins of the 345S mutation in AsRDL.The near fixation of the 296S mutation and the occurrence of the 327I and 345S mutations in addition to 296S, in all the nine tested An. sinensis populations in Guangxi, strongly indicate a risk of multiple insecticide resistance. The haplotype diversity plus genetic heterogeneities in the geographical distribution, and multiple origins of AsRDL alleles call for a location-customized strategy for monitoring and management of insecticide resistance.

Project description:BACKGROUND:The incidence of congenital hypothyroidism (CH) differs significantly among different ethnicities and regions, and early differentiation of transient CH is important to avoid unnecessary prolonged treatment with L-T4. OBJECTIVE:To investigate the incidence of CH based on the newborn screening program in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China, and to analyze the predictors that might allow for an early differentiation between permanent (P) and transient (T) CH. DESIGN AND METHODS:Data from newborn screening program over a seven-year period (January 2009 to January 2016) at Guangxi Maternal and Child Health Hospital are analyzed. Blood samples were collected on filter paper between 3 and 7 days after birth, and TSH level was measured by time-resolved fluorescence assay. Individuals with increased TSH (TSH???8?IU/L) levels detected by newborn screening were recalled for further evaluation. Serum TSH, FT3 and FT4 were determined by electrochemiluminescence assay using venous blood samples. Diagnosis of CH is based on elevated TSH levels (>10?IU/L) and decreased FT4 levels (<12?pmol/L). Patients with elevated TSH levels and normal FT4 levels were diagnosed as hyperthyrotropinemia. Permanent or transient CH was determined by using the results of thyroid function tests after temporary withdrawal of L-T4 therapy at approximately 2-3 years of age. RESULTS:Among 1,238,340 infants in the newborn screening program, 14,443 individuals were recalled for reevaluation (re-call rate 1.18%), 911 and 731 individuals were subsequently determined to have hyperthyrotropinemia and CH respectively; thus, a prevalence of 1:1359 and 1:1694 for hyperthyrotropinemia and CH. Of the 731 patients with CH, 161 patients were diagnosed with permanent CH (PCH), and 159 patients were diagnosed with transient CH (TCH), the other 411 patients are too young to determine their subtypes. Patients with PCH required an increasing dose of L-T4 during the first few years, whereas patients with TCH required a decreased dose of L-T4. The TSH levels at diagnosis and the dose of L-T4 used were significantly higher in PCH cases than in transient cases. The FT4 levels at diagnosis were significantly lower in PCH cases than in TCH cases. The TSH levels at diagnosis, FT4 levels at diagnosis and L-T4 doses at 90 days were evaluated as predictors for differentiating PCH and TCH, and their accuracy at their respective optimal cutoffs were determined to be 60.6%, 66.7% and 93.9%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:The CH incidence in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is slightly higher (1:1694) compared to the worldwide levels (1/2000-1/4000). The PCH and TCH ratio is close to 1; thus, the estimated PCH incidence is 1/3388, which is similar to reported worldwide average incidence (1/3000). The L-T4 dose required at 90 days (>30??g/day) has the highest predictive value for PCH. Earlier differentiation of PCH and TCH helps to determine appropriate treatment course.

Dataset Information

A comparative study of two methods to predict the incidence of hepatitis B in Guangxi, China.

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A comparative study of two methods to predict the incidence of hepatitis B in Guangxi, China.

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