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The predictive value of variables measurable in the ambulance and the development of the Predict Sepsis screening tools: a prospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Despite sepsis being a time critical condition with a high mortality, it is often not identified in a timely fashion. The aim of the current study was to create a screening tool based on bedside measurable variables predictive of sepsis among ambulance patients with infection according to clinical judgment by ambulance personnel. METHODS:Prospective cohort study of 551 adult patients presenting with suspected infection, performed in the ambulance setting of Stockholm during 2017-2018. 18 variables were measured in the ambulance (8 keywords related to medical history, 6 vital signs, 4 point-of-care blood tests, in addition to age, gender, and comorbidity. Logistic regression, area under the curve (AUC) and classification trees were used to study the association with sepsis. The AUC, sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios were used to evaluate the predictive ability of sepsis screening models. RESULTS:The six variables with the strongest association with sepsis were: systolic blood pressure???100?mmHg, temperature?>?38.5?°C, GCS??4?mmol/L, gastrointestinal symptoms, and a history of acute altered mental status. These were combined into the Predict Sepsis screening tool 1, with a sensitivity of 0.90, specificity 0.41, AUC 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.81, PPV 0.52, and NPV 0.86. Combining a history of acute altered mental status with GCS??38.5?°C, GCS??4?mmol/L, gastrointestinal symptoms, and a history of acute altered mental status demonstrated the strongest association with sepsis. We present three screening tools to predict sepsis with similar sensitivity. The results indicated no noticeable increase of predictive ability by including symptom-variables and blood tests to a sepsis screening tool in the current study population. TRIAL REGISTRATION:NCT03249597.

SUBMITTER: Wallgren UM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7318751 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The predictive value of variables measurable in the ambulance and the development of the Predict Sepsis screening tools: a prospective cohort study.

Wallgren Ulrika Margareta UM Sjölin Jan J Järnbert-Pettersson Hans H Kurland Lisa L

Scandinavian journal of trauma, resuscitation and emergency medicine 20200625 1

<h4>Background</h4>Despite sepsis being a time critical condition with a high mortality, it is often not identified in a timely fashion. The aim of the current study was to create a screening tool based on bedside measurable variables predictive of sepsis among ambulance patients with infection according to clinical judgment by ambulance personnel.<h4>Methods</h4>Prospective cohort study of 551 adult patients presenting with suspected infection, performed in the ambulance setting of Stockholm du ...[more]

PMID: 32586337

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Project description:BackgroundHeart rate variability (HRV) is a parameter of autonomic nervous system function. A decrease of HRV has been associated with disease severity, risk of complications and prognosis in several conditions.ObjectiveWe aim to investigate the feasibility and the reliability of in-ambulance HRV registration during emergency interventions, and to evaluate the association between prehospital HRV parameters, patient characteristics, vital parameters and short-term outcome.MethodsWe conducted a prospective study using a non-invasive 2-lead ECG registration device in 55 patients transported by the paramedic intervention team of the Universitair Ziekenhuis Brussel. HRV assessment included time domain parameters, frequency domain parameters, nonlinear analysis, and time-frequency analysis. The correlation between HRV parameters and patient and outcome characteristics was analyzed and compared to controls.ResultsArtifact and ectopic detection rates were higher in patients during ambulance transportation compared to controls in resting conditions, yet technical reasons precluding in-ambulance HRV analysis occurred in only 9.6% of cases. HRV acquisition was possible without safety issues or interference with routine emergency care. Reliability of the results was considered sufficient for Sample entropy (SampEn), good for the ratio of low frequency and high frequency components (LF/HF ratio) in the frequency and the time frequency domain, and excellent for the triangular interpolation of the NN interval histogram (TINN), and for the short-term scaling exponent of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA α1). HRV indices were significantly reduced inpatients with unfavorable outcome compared to patients with favorable outcome and controls. Multivariate analysis identified lower DFA α1 as an independent predictor of unfavorable outcome (OR, 0.155; 95% CI 0.024-0.966; p = 0.049).ConclusionIn-ambulance HRV registration is technically and operationally feasible and produces reliable results for parameters in the time, frequency, nonlinear and time frequency domain. Especially non-linear HRV analysis during emergency ambulance transportation may be a promising approach to predict patient outcome.

Project description:PurposeTo evaluate the risk of cancer (positive predictive value [PPV]) associated with specific findings (mass, calcifications, architectural distortion, asymmetry) in mammographic examinations with abnormal results, to determine the distribution of these findings in examinations in which the patients received a diagnosis of cancer and examinations in which the patients did not, and to analyze PPV variation according to radiologist and patient factors.Materials and methodsHIPAA-compliant institutional review board approval was obtained. PPV of mammographic findings was evaluated in a prospective cohort of 10,262 women who underwent 10,641 screening or diagnostic mammographic examinations with abnormal results between January 1998 and December 2002 in the San Francisco Mammography Registry. The cohort was linked with the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results program to determine cancer status among these women. PPVs were calculated for each finding and were stratified according to patient characteristics, cancer type, and radiologist reader.ResultsCases of breast cancer (n = 1552) were identified (invasive, n = 1287; ductal carcinoma in situ, n = 270); in five, both kinds of breast cancer were recorded. Overall, of the number of interpretations, masses were most frequently noted in 56%, followed by calcifications in 29%, asymmetry in 12%, and architectural distortion in 4%. Masses, calcifications, architectural distortion, and developing asymmetry demonstrated similar PPVs in screening examinations (9.7%, 12.7%, 10.2%, and 7.4%, respectively), whereas one-view-only and focal asymmetry demonstrated lower PPVs (3.6% and 3.7%, respectively) and were a frequent reason for an abnormal result (42%). Overall, one (5%) in 20 invasive cancers was identified with asymmetry, one (6%) in 16 invasive cancers was identified with architectural distortion, one (21%) in five invasive cancers was identified with calcifications, and two (68%) in three invasive cancers were identified with a mass.ConclusionFive percent of invasive cancers were identified with asymmetry, and asymmetry is more weakly associated with cancer in screening examinations than are mass, calcifications, and architectural distortion.

Project description:Background: Medication-related problems (MRPs) occur across the continuum of emergency department (ED) care: they may contribute to ED presentation, occur in the ED/short-stay unit (SSU), at hospital admission, or shortly after discharge to the community. This project aimed to determine predictors for MRPs across the continuum of ED care and incorporate these into screening tools (one for use at ED presentation and one at ED/SSU discharge), to identify patients at greatest risk, who could be targeted by ED pharmacists. Methods: A prospective, observational, multicenter study was undertaken in nine EDs, between July 2016 and August 2017. Blocks of ten consecutive adult patients presenting at pre-specified times were identified. Within 1 week of ED discharge, a pharmacist interviewed patients and undertook a medical record review to determine a medication history, patient understanding of treatment, risk factors for MRPs and to manage the MRPs. Logistic regression was undertaken to determine predictor variables. Multivariable regression beta coefficients were used to develop a scoring system for the two screening tools. Results: Of 1,238 patients meeting all inclusion criteria, 904 were recruited. Characteristics predicting MRPs related to ED presentation were: patient self-administers regular medications (OR = 7.95, 95%CI = 3.79-16.65), carer assists with medication administration (OR = 15.46, 95%CI = 6.52-36.67), or health-professional administers (OR = 5.01, 95%CI = 1.77-14.19); medication-related ED presentation (OR = 9.95, 95%CI = 4.92-20.10); age ≥80 years (OR = 3.63, 95%CI = 1.96-6.71), or age 65-79 years (OR = 2.01, 95%CI = 1.17-3.46); potential medication adherence issue (OR = 2.27, 95%CI = 1.38-3.73); medical specialist seen in past 6-months (OR = 2.02, 95%CI = 1.42-2.85); pharmaceutical benefit/pension/concession cardholder (OR = 1.89, 95%CI = 1.28-2.78); inpatient in previous 4-weeks (OR = 1.60, 95%CI = 1.02-2.52); being male (OR = 1.48, 95%CI = 1.05-2.10); and difficulties reading labels (OR = 0.63, 95%CI = 0.40-0.99). Characteristics predicting MRPs related to ED discharge were: potential medication adherence issue (OR = 6.80, 95%CI = 3.97-11.64); stay in ED > 8 h (OR = 3.23, 95%CI = 1.47-7.78); difficulties reading labels (OR = 2.33, 95%CI = 1.30-4.16); and medication regimen changed in ED (OR = 3.91, 95%CI = 2.43-6.30). For ED presentation, the model had a C-statistic of 0.84 (95% CI 0.81-0.86) (sensitivity = 80%, specificity = 70%). For ED discharge, the model had a C-statistic of 0.78 (95% CI 0.73-0.83) (sensitivity = 82%, specificity = 57%). Conclusion: Predictors of MRPs are readily available at the bedside and may be used to screen for patients at greatest risk upon ED presentation and upon ED/SSU discharge to the community. These screening tools now require external validation and implementation studies to evaluate the impact of using such tools on patient care outcomes.

Project description:PurposeTo determine the predictive value of ophthalmic screening tests with visually significant eye disease in a cohort of American Indian/Alaskan Natives from the Pacific Northwest.DesignValidity assessment of a possible screening protocol.MethodsOphthalmic technicians performed a screening examination including medical and ocular history, best-corrected visual acuity, limbal anterior chamber depth assessment, frequency-doubling technology perimetry (FDT, C-20-5), confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscopy, nonmydriatic digital photography, and tonometry on 429 participants. An ophthalmologist performed a comprehensive eye examination on subjects with 1 or more abnormal screening tests and a random selection of those with normal screening tests. We used univariate and multivariate logistic regression to determine the association between abnormal screening test results and visually significant eye disease. We also determined the predictive value of screening tests with ocular disease.ResultsUnivariate analysis identified history of eye disease or diabetes mellitus (P < .001), visual acuity <20/40 (P < .001), abnormal/poor-quality confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscopy (P < .001), abnormal FDT (P < .001), and abnormal/poor-quality nonmydriatic imaging (P < .001) as associated with visually significant eye disease. A multivariate analysis found visually significant eye disease to be associated (P < .001; receiver operating characteristic curve area = 0.827, negative predictive value = 84%) with 4 screening tests: visual acuity <20/40, abnormal/poor-quality nonmydriatic imaging, abnormal FDT, and abnormal/poor-quality confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscopy.ConclusionsOphthalmic technicians performing a subset of screening tests may provide an accurate and efficient means of screening for eye disease in an American Indian/Alaskan Native population. Confirmation of these results in other populations, particularly those with a different profile of disease prevalence, is needed.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:We sought to determine whether screening for anxiety and depression, an emerging risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D), adds clinically meaningful information beyond current T2D risk assessment tools. DESIGN:Prospective cohort. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING:The 45 and Up Study is a large-scale prospective cohort of men and women aged 45 years and over, randomly sampled from the general population of New South Wales, Australia. 51 588 participants without self-reported diabetes at baseline (2006-2009) were followed up for approximately 3 years (2010). METHODS:T2D status was determined by self-reported doctor who diagnosed diabetes after the age of 30 years, and/or current use of metformin. Current symptoms of anxiety and/or depression were measured by the 10-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10). We determined the optimal cut-off point for K10 for predicting T2D using Tjur's R2 and tested risk models with and without the K10 using logistic regression. We assessed performance measures for the incremental value of the K10 using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AROC), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and net benefit (NB) decision analytics with sensitivity analyses. RESULTS:T2D developed in 1076 individuals (52.4% men). A K10 score of ?19 (prevalence 8.97%), adjusted for age and gender, was optimal for predicting incident T2D (sensitivity 77%, specificity 53% and positive predictive value 3%; OR 1.70 (95% CI 1.41 to 2.03, P<0.001). K10 score predicted incident T2D independent of current risk models, but did not improve corresponding AROC, NRI and NB statistics. Sensitivity analyses showed that this was partially explained by the baseline model and the small effect size of the K10 that was similar compared with other risk factors. CONCLUSIONS:Anxiety and depressing screening with the K10 adds no meaningful incremental value in addition to current T2D risk assessments. The clinical importance of anxiety and depression screening in preventing T2D requires ongoing consideration.

Dataset Information

The predictive value of variables measurable in the ambulance and the development of the Predict Sepsis screening tools: a prospective cohort study.

Publications

The predictive value of variables measurable in the ambulance and the development of the Predict Sepsis screening tools: a prospective cohort study.

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