Dataset Information

MEDICASCY: A Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Small-Molecule Drug Side Effects, Indications, Efficacy, and Modes of Action.

ABSTRACT: To improve the drug discovery yield, a method which is implemented at the beginning of drug discovery that accurately predicts drug side effects, indications, efficacy, and mode of action based solely on the input of the drug's chemical structure is needed. In contrast, extant predictive methods do not comprehensively address these aspects of drug discovery and rely on features derived from extensive, often unavailable experimental information for novel molecules. To address these issues, we developed MEDICASCY, a multilabel-based boosted random forest machine learning method that only requires the small molecule's chemical structure for the drug side effect, indication, efficacy, and probable mode of action target predictions; however, it has comparable or even significantly better performance than existing approaches requiring far more information. In retrospective benchmarking on high confidence predictions, MEDICASCY shows about 78% precision and recall for predicting at least one severe side effect and 72% precision drug efficacy. Experimental validation of MEDICASCY's efficacy predictions on novel molecules shows close to 80% precision for the inhibition of growth in ovarian, breast, and prostate cancer cell lines. Thus, MEDICASCY should improve the success rate for new drug approval. A web service for academic users is available at http://pwp.gatech.edu/cssb/MEDICASCY.

SUBMITTER: Zhou H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7319183 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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MEDICASCY: A Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Small-Molecule Drug Side Effects, Indications, Efficacy, and Modes of Action.

Zhou Hongyi H Cao Hongnan H Matyunina Lilya L Shelby Madelyn M Cassels Lauren L McDonald John F JF Skolnick Jeffrey J

Molecular pharmaceutics 20200413 5

To improve the drug discovery yield, a method which is implemented at the beginning of drug discovery that accurately predicts drug side effects, indications, efficacy, and mode of action based solely on the input of the drug's chemical structure is needed. In contrast, extant predictive methods do not comprehensively address these aspects of drug discovery and rely on features derived from extensive, often unavailable experimental information for novel molecules. To address these issues, we dev ...[more]

PMID: 32237745

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Project description:Different types of chemicals and products may exhibit various health risks when administered into the human body. For toxicity reasons, the number of new drugs entering the market through the conventional drug development process has been reduced over the years. However, with the advent of big data and artificial intelligence, machine learning techniques have emerged as a potential solution for predicting toxicity and ensuring efficient drug development and chemical safety. An ML model for toxicity prediction can reduce experimental costs and time while addressing ethical concerns by drastically reducing the need for animals and clinical trials. Herein, MolToxPred, an ML-based tool, has been developed using a stacked model approach to predict the potential toxicity of small molecules and metabolites. The stacked model consists of random forest, multi-layer perceptron, and LightGBM as base classifiers and Logistic Regression as the meta classifier. For training and validation purposes, a comprehensive set of toxic and non-toxic molecules is curated. Different structural and physicochemical-based features in the form of molecular descriptors and fingerprints were employed. MolToxPred utilizes a comprehensive feature selection process and optimizes its hyperparameters through Bayesian optimization with stratified 5-fold cross-validation. In the evaluation phase, MolToxPred achieved an AUROC of 87.76% on the test set and 88.84% on an external validation set. The McNemar test was used as the post-hoc test to determine if the stacked models' performance was significantly different compared to the base learners. The developed stacked model outperformed its base classifiers and an existing tool in the literature, reaffirming its better performance. The hypothesis is that the incorporation of a diverse set of data, the subsequent feature selection, and a stacked ensemble approach give MolToxPred the edge over other methods. In addition to this, an attempt has been made to identify structural alerts responsible for endpoints of the Tox21 data to determine the association of a molecule with a plausible downstream pathway of action. MolToxPred may be helpful for drug discovery and regulatory pipelines in pharmaceutical and other industries for in silico toxicity prediction of small molecule candidates.

Project description:BackgroundThe Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services projects that health care costs will continue to grow over the next few years. Rising readmission costs contribute significantly to increasing health care costs. Multiple areas of health care, including readmissions, have benefited from the application of various machine learning algorithms in several ways.ObjectiveWe aimed to identify suitable models for predicting readmission charges billed by hospitals. Our literature review revealed that this application of machine learning is underexplored. We used various predictive methods, ranging from glass-box models (such as regularization techniques) to black-box models (such as deep learning-based models).MethodsWe defined readmissions as readmission with the same major diagnostic category (RSDC) and all-cause readmission category (RADC). For these readmission categories, 576,701 and 1,091,580 individuals, respectively, were identified from the Nationwide Readmission Database of the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality for 2013. Linear regression, lasso regression, elastic net, ridge regression, eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and a deep learning model based on multilayer perceptron (MLP) were the 6 machine learning algorithms we tested for RSDC and RADC through 10-fold cross-validation.ResultsOur preliminary analysis using a data-driven approach revealed that within RADC, the subsequent readmission charge billed per patient was higher than the previous charge for 541,090 individuals, and this number was 319,233 for RSDC. The top 3 major diagnostic categories (MDCs) for such instances were the same for RADC and RSDC. The average readmission charge billed was higher than the previous charge for 21 of the MDCs in the case of RSDC, whereas it was only for 13 of the MDCs in RADC. We recommend XGBoost and the deep learning model based on MLP for predicting readmission charges. The following performance metrics were obtained for XGBoost: (1) RADC (mean absolute percentage error [MAPE]=3.121%; root mean squared error [RMSE]=0.414; mean absolute error [MAE]=0.317; root relative squared error [RRSE]=0.410; relative absolute error [RAE]=0.399; normalized RMSE [NRMSE]=0.040; mean absolute deviation [MAD]=0.031) and (2) RSDC (MAPE=3.171%; RMSE=0.421; MAE=0.321; RRSE=0.407; RAE=0.393; NRMSE=0.041; MAD=0.031). The performance obtained for MLP-based deep neural networks are as follows: (1) RADC (MAPE=3.103%; RMSE=0.413; MAE=0.316; RRSE=0.410; RAE=0.397; NRMSE=0.040; MAD=0.031) and (2) RSDC (MAPE=3.202%; RMSE=0.427; MAE=0.326; RRSE=0.413; RAE=0.399; NRMSE=0.041; MAD=0.032). Repeated measures ANOVA revealed that the mean RMSE differed significantly across models with P<.001. Post hoc tests using the Bonferroni correction method indicated that the mean RMSE of the deep learning/XGBoost models was statistically significantly (P<.001) lower than that of all other models, namely linear regression/elastic net/lasso/ridge regression.ConclusionsModels built using XGBoost and MLP are suitable for predicting readmission charges billed by hospitals. The MDCs allow models to accurately predict hospital readmission charges.

Dataset Information

MEDICASCY: A Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Small-Molecule Drug Side Effects, Indications, Efficacy, and Modes of Action.

Publications

MEDICASCY: A Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Small-Molecule Drug Side Effects, Indications, Efficacy, and Modes of Action.

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