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Assessing the reliability of predicted plant trait distributions at the global scale.

ABSTRACT: Aim:Predictions of plant traits over space and time are increasingly used to improve our understanding of plant community responses to global environmental change. A necessary step forward is to assess the reliability of global trait predictions. In this study, we predict community mean plant traits at the global scale and present a systematic evaluation of their reliability in terms of the accuracy of the models, ecological realism and various sources of uncertainty. Location:Global. Time period:Present. Major taxa studied:Vascular plants. Methods:We predicted global distributions of community mean specific leaf area, leaf nitrogen concentration, plant height and wood density with an ensemble modelling approach based on georeferenced, locally measured trait data representative of the plant community. We assessed the predictive performance of the models, the plausibility of predicted trait combinations, the influence of data quality, and the uncertainty across geographical space attributed to spatial extrapolation and diverging model predictions. Results:Ensemble predictions of community mean plant height, specific leaf area and wood density resulted in ecologically plausible trait-environment relationships and trait-trait combinations. Leaf nitrogen concentration, however, could not be predicted reliably. The ensemble approach was better at predicting community trait means than any of the individual modelling techniques, which varied greatly in predictive performance and led to divergent predictions, mostly in African deserts and the Arctic, where predictions were also extrapolated. High data quality (i.e., including intraspecific variability and a representative species sample) increased model performance by 28%. Main conclusions:Plant community traits can be predicted reliably at the global scale when using an ensemble approach and high-quality data for traits that mostly respond to large-scale environmental factors. We recommend applying ensemble forecasting to account for model uncertainty, using representative trait data, and more routinely assessing the reliability of trait predictions.

SUBMITTER: Boonman CCF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7319484 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessing the reliability of predicted plant trait distributions at the global scale.

Boonman Coline C F CCF Benítez-López Ana A Schipper Aafke M AM Thuiller Wilfried W Anand Madhur M Cerabolini Bruno E L BEL Cornelissen Johannes H C JHC Gonzalez-Melo Andres A Hattingh Wesley N WN Higuchi Pedro P Laughlin Daniel C DC Onipchenko Vladimir G VG Peñuelas Josep J Poorter Lourens L Soudzilovskaia Nadejda A NA Huijbregts Mark A J MAJ Santini Luca L

Global ecology and biogeography : a journal of macroecology 20200320 6

<h4>Aim</h4>Predictions of plant traits over space and time are increasingly used to improve our understanding of plant community responses to global environmental change. A necessary step forward is to assess the reliability of global trait predictions. In this study, we predict community mean plant traits at the global scale and present a systematic evaluation of their reliability in terms of the accuracy of the models, ecological realism and various sources of uncertainty.<h4>Location</h4>Glo ...[more]

PMID: 32612452

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Project description:The worldwide plant economic spectrum hypothesis predicts that leaf, stem, and root traits are correlated across vascular plant species because carbon gain depends on leaves being adequately supplied with water and nutrients, and because construction of each organ involves a trade-off between performance and persistence. Despite its logical and intuitive appeal, this hypothesis has received mixed empirical support. If traits within species diverge in their responses to an environmental gradient, then interspecific trait correlations could be weakened when measured in natural ecosystems. To test this prediction, we measured relative growth rates (RGR) and seven functional traits that have been shown to be related to fluxes of water, nutrients, and carbon across 56 functionally diverse tree species on (1) juveniles in a controlled environment, (2) juveniles in forest understories, and (3) mature trees in forests. Leaf, stem, and fine root traits of juveniles grown in a controlled environment were closely correlated with each other, and with RGR. Remarkably, the seven leaf, stem, and fine root tissue traits spanned a single dimension of variation when measured in the controlled environment. Forest-grown juveniles expressed lower leaf mass per area, but higher wood and fine root tissue density, than greenhouse-grown juveniles. Traits and growth rates were decoupled in forest-grown juveniles and mature trees. Our results indicate that constraints exist on the covariation, not just the variation, among vegetative plant organs; however, divergent responses of traits within species to environmental gradients can mask interspecific trait correlations in natural environments. Correlations among organs and relationships between traits and RGR were strong when plants were compared in a standardized environment. Our results may reconcile the discrepancies seen among studies, by showing that if traits and growth rates of species are compared across varied environments, then the interorgan trait correlations observed in controlled conditions can weaken or disappear.

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Assessing the reliability of predicted plant trait distributions at the global scale.

Publications

Assessing the reliability of predicted plant trait distributions at the global scale.

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