The impact of climate change and glacier mass loss on the hydrology in the Mont-Blanc massif.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Laurent L
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7319973 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Mountains are a sensitive indicator of climate change and these areas are an early glimpse of what could happen in lowland environments. Peaking at 4808 m asl, the Mont-Blanc summit, at the boundary between France and Italy, is the highest of the Alps, in Western Europe. Its Massif is world-famous for outdoor and extreme sport activities, especially since the 1924 Olympic games held in Chamonix. Here, we use a novel statistical downscaling approach to regionalize current and future climate change over the Mont-Blanc Massif at an unequalled spatial resolution of 200 m. The algorithm is applied to daily minimum and maximum temperature derived from global climate models used in the fifth assessment report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This new high-resolution database allows for a precise quantification of frost occurrence and its evolution until 2100. In the winter season and by the end of the 21st century, under a pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), frost frequency in the morning could decrease by 30-35 percentage points in the valley of Chamonix, and in the afternoon, similar changes could occur for elevations comprised between 2000 and 3000 m. In summertime, changes are even larger, reaching a huge drop of 45-50 points in the afternoon between 3500 and 4500 m. These changes are much reduced under an optimistic scenario. They could have huge impacts on the environment (glacier shrinking, permafrost degradation, floods, changes in the distribution of species and ecosystems) and societies (summer tourism for climbing and hiking, and winter tourism for skiing).
| S-EPMC6427016 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the west face of the Drus (Mont Blanc massif, France) has been affected by a retrogressive erosion dynamic marked by large rockfall events. From the 1950s onwards, the rock failure frequency gradually increased until the large rockfall event (292,680 m3) of June 2005, which made the Bonatti Pillar disappear. Aiming to characterize the rock failure activity following this major event, which may be related to permafrost warming, the granitic rock face was scanned each autumn between October 2005 and September 2016 using medium- and long-range terrestrial laser scanners. All the point clouds were successively compared to establish a rockfall source inventory and determine a volume-frequency relationship. Eleven years of monitoring revealed a phase of rock failure activity decay until September 2008, a destabilization phase between September 2008 and November 2011, and a new phase of rock failure activity decay from November 2011 to September 2016. The destabilization phase was marked by three major rockfall events covering a total volume of 61,494 m3, resulting in the progressive collapse of a new pillar located in the northern part of the June 2005 rockfall scar. In the same way as for the Bonatti Pillar, rock failure instability propagated upward with increasing volumes. In addition to these major events, 304 rockfall sources ranging from 0.002 to 476 m3 were detected between 2005 and 2016. The temporal evolution of rock failure activity reveals that after a major event, the number of rockfall sources and the eroded volume both follow a rapid decrease. The rock failure activity is characterized by an exponential decay during the period following the major event and by a power-law decay for the eroded volume. The power law describing the distribution of the source volumes detected between 2005 and 2016 indicates an exponent of 0.48 and an average rock failure activity larger of more than six events larger than 1 m3 per year. Over the 1905-2016 period, a total of 426,611 m3 of rock collapsed from the Drus west face, indicating a very high rock wall retreat rate of 14.4 mm year-1 over a surface of 266,700 m2. Averaged over a time window of 1000 years, the long-term retreat rate derived from the frequency density integration of rock failure volumes is 2.9 mm year-1. Despite difficulty in accessing and monitoring the site, our study demonstrates that long-term surveys of high-elevation rock faces are possible and provide valuable information that helps improve our understanding of landscape evolution in mountainous settings subject to permafrost warming.
| S-EPMC7567073 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Lake Chad, in the Sahelian zone of west-central Africa, provides food and water to ~50 million people and supports unique ecosystems and biodiversity. In the past decades, it became a symbol of current climate change, held up by its dramatic shrinkage in the 1980s. Despites a partial recovery in response to increased Sahelian precipitation in the 1990s, Lake Chad is still facing major threats and its contemporary variability under climate change remains highly uncertain. Here, using a new multi-satellite approach, we show that Lake Chad extent has remained stable during the last two decades, despite a slight decrease of its northern pool. Moreover, since the 2000s, groundwater, which contributes to ~70% of Lake Chad's annual water storage change, is increasing due to water supply provided by its two main tributaries. Our results indicate that in tandem with groundwater and tropical origin of water supply, over the last two decades, Lake Chad is not shrinking and recovers seasonally its surface water extent and volume. This study provides a robust regional understanding of current hydrology and changes in the Lake Chad region, giving a basis for developing future climate adaptation strategies.
| S-EPMC7099084 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Mont Blanc, the summit of Western Europe, is a popular but demanding high-altitude ascent. Drug use is thought to be widespread among climbers attempting this summit, not only to prevent altitude illnesses, but also to boost physical and/or psychological capacities. This practice may be unsafe in this remote alpine environment. However, robust data on medication during the ascent of Mont Blanc are lacking. Individual urine samples from male climbers using urinals in mountain refuges on access routes to Mont Blanc (Goûter and Cosmiques mountain huts) were blindly and anonymously collected using a hidden automatic sampler. Urine samples were screened for a wide range of drugs, including diuretics, glucocorticoids, stimulants, hypnotics and phosphodiesterase 5 (PDE-5) inhibitors. Out of 430 samples analyzed from both huts, 35.8% contained at least one drug. Diuretics (22.7%) and hypnotics (12.9%) were the most frequently detected drugs, while glucocorticoids (3.5%) and stimulants (3.1%) were less commonly detected. None of the samples contained PDE-5 inhibitors. Two substances were predominant: the diuretic acetazolamide (20.6%) and the hypnotic zolpidem (8.4%). Thirty three samples were found positive for at least two substances, the most frequent combination being acetazolamide and a hypnotic (2.1%). Based on a novel sampling technique, we demonstrate that about one third of the urine samples collected from a random sample of male climbers contained one or several drugs, suggesting frequent drug use amongst climbers ascending Mont Blanc. Our data suggest that medication primarily aims at mitigating the symptoms of altitude illnesses, rather than enhancing performance. In this hazardous environment, the relatively high prevalence of hypnotics must be highlighted, since these molecules may alter vigilance.
| S-EPMC4890938 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Glaciers are of key importance to freshwater supplies in the Himalayan region. Their growth or decline is among other factors determined by an interaction of 2-m air temperature (TAS) and precipitation rate (PR) and thereof derived positive degree days (PDD) and snow and ice accumulation (SAC). To investigate determining factors in climate projections, we use a model ensemble consisting of 36 CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) and 13 regional climate models (RCMs) of two Asian CORDEX domains for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). First, we downsize the ensemble in respect to the models' ability to correctly reproduce dominant circulation patterns (i.e., the Indian summer monsoon [ISM] and western disturbances [WDs]) as well as elevation-dependent trend signals in winter. Within this evaluation, a newly produced data set for the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra catchments is used as observational data. The reanalyses WFDEI, ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR and JRA-55 are used to further account for observational uncertainty. In a next step, remaining TAS and PR data are bias corrected applying a new bias adjustment method, scale distribution mapping, and subsequently PDD and SAC computed. Finally, we identify and quantify projected climate change effects. Until the end of the century, the ensemble indicates a rise of PDD, especially during summer and for lower altitudes. Also TAS is rising, though the highest increases are shown for higher altitudes and between December and April (DJFMA). PRs connected to the ISM are projected to robustly increase, while signals for PR changes during DJFMA show a higher level of uncertainty and spatial heterogeneity. However, a robust decline in solid precipitation is projected over our research domain, with the exception of a small area in the high mountain Indus catchment where no clear signal emerges.
| S-EPMC7078814 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Heterogeneous glacier mass loss has occurred across High Mountain Asia on a multi-decadal timescale. Contrasting climatic settings influence glacier behaviour at the regional scale, but high intra-regional variability in mass loss rates points to factors capable of amplifying glacier recession in addition to climatic change along the Himalaya. Here we examine the influence of surface debris cover and glacial lakes on glacier mass loss across the Himalaya since the 1970s. We find no substantial difference in the mass loss of debris-covered and clean-ice glaciers over our study period, but substantially more negative (-0.13 to -0.29 m w.e.a-1) mass balances for lake-terminating glaciers, in comparison to land-terminating glaciers, with the largest differences occurring after 2000. Despite representing a minor portion of the total glacier population (~10%), the recession of lake-terminating glaciers accounted for up to 32% of mass loss in different sub-regions. The continued expansion of established glacial lakes, and the preconditioning of land-terminating glaciers for new lake development increases the likelihood of enhanced ice mass loss from the region in coming decades; a scenario not currently considered in regional ice mass loss projections.
| S-EPMC6889251 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The diverse impacts of anthropogenic climate change in the spatiotemporal distribution of global freshwater are generally addressed through global scale studies, which suffer from uncertainties arising from coarse spatial resolution. Multi-catchment, regional studies provide fine-grained details of these impacts but remain less explored. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on the hydrology of 19 river basins from different geographical and climatic conditions in South and Southeast Asia. We find that these two regions will get warmer (1.5 to 7.8 °C) and wetter (- 3.4 to 46.2%) with the expected increment in river flow (- 18.5 to 109%) at the end of the twenty-first century under climate change. An increase in seasonal hydro-climatic extremes in South Asia and the rising intensity of hydro-climatic extremes during only one season in Southeast Asia illustrates high spatiotemporal variability in the impact of climate change and augments the importance of similar studies on a larger scale for broader understanding.
| S-EPMC8385063 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Recent studies of Asian glaciers have shown that glaciers in eastern Karakoram and West Kunlun have been slightly gaining mass while those in nearby Jammu Kashmir and Himalayas are losing mass, at rates of more than 0.5 m w.e.yr-1 and about 0.3 m w.e.yr-1, respectively. Two possible explanations have been proposed for this difference in glacier behaviour: spatial heterogeneity in climate change (climatic forcing) or differing glacier responses to climate change (glacier response). However, neither explanation has strong supporting evidence. Here, we examine the glacial response by calculating the mass-balance sensitivity to temperature change in high-mountain Asia. In support of the glacier-response explanation, we find a strong correlation between observed glacier surface-elevation changes and mass-balance sensitivity of glaciers. The high coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.61) suggests that spatially heterogeneous mass-balance sensitivity has more explanatory power than regionally different climate change for the recent contrasting glacier fluctuations in the high mountain Asia.
| S-EPMC5651914 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Microbial communities of boreal peatlands under climate change conditions: Does community structure indicate the dynamics of ecosystem function?
| PRJEB25233 | ENA
Project description:Climate change strongly affects mountain tourism activities. Glacier tourism is highly affected by the retreat of glaciers. However, research on the effects and adaptations of glacier tourism to climate change is scarce in Europe. By analysing the glacio-geomorphological literature, semi-structured interviews, and observations at six major Alpine glacier tourism sites, we aim to identify the physical processes that affect glacier tourism in the Alps and how stakeholders perceive and adapt to them. The results reveal that glacier retreat and the associated paraglacial dynamics and permafrost warming strongly affect glacier tourism. Stakeholders perceive six main issues: management, itinerary, infrastructure, attractiveness, safety, and activity. In response, they have been adapting with eight strategies: management change, technical means implementation, mitigation, diversification, access and itinerary maintenance, heritage development, planning, and implementation of transformation projects. These strategies are discussed regarding their relevance to tourism model transition to guarantee future sustainability.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-021-01849-0.
| S-EPMC8571665 | biostudies-literature