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Ecological opportunity and upward prey-predator radiation cascades.

ABSTRACT: A general goal in community ecology and evolutionary biology is to understand how diversity has arisen. In our attempts to reach such goals we become increasingly aware of interacting ecological and evolutionary processes shaping biodiversity. Ecological opportunity and adaptive radiations can, for example, drive diversification in competitive communities but little is known about how such processes propagate through trophic levels in adaptive radiation cascades. I use an eco-evolutionary model of trait-based ecological interactions and micro-evolutionary processes to investigate the macro-evolutionary aspects of predator diversification in such cascades. Prey diversification facilitates predator radiation through predator feeding opportunity and disruptive selection. Predator radiation, however, often disconnects from the prey radiation as the diversification progresses. Only when predators have an intermediate niche width, high predatory efficiency, and high evolutionary potential can radiation cascades be maintained over macro-evolutionary time scales. These results provide expectations for predator response to prey divergence and insight into eco-evolutionary feedbacks between trophic levels. Such expectations are crucial for future studies that aim for a better understanding of how diversity is generated and maintained in complex communities.

SUBMITTER: Pontarp M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7320021 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Ecological opportunity and upward prey-predator radiation cascades.

Pontarp Mikael M

Scientific reports 20200626 1

A general goal in community ecology and evolutionary biology is to understand how diversity has arisen. In our attempts to reach such goals we become increasingly aware of interacting ecological and evolutionary processes shaping biodiversity. Ecological opportunity and adaptive radiations can, for example, drive diversification in competitive communities but little is known about how such processes propagate through trophic levels in adaptive radiation cascades. I use an eco-evolutionary model ...[more]

PMID: 32591632

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Project description:Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to predict future spatial density distributions in the form of common spatial trends of predator-prey overlap in 2050 under the "business-as-usual, worst-case" climate change scenario. This was done for combinations of six mobile marine predator species (gray seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black-legged kittiwake, and northern gannet) and two of their common prey species (herring and sandeels). A range of five explanatory variables that cover both physical and biological aspects of critical marine habitat were used as follows: bottom temperature, stratification, depth-averaged speed, net primary production, and maximum subsurface chlorophyll. Four different methods were explored to quantify relative ecological cost/benefits of climate change to the common spatial trends of predator-prey density distributions. All but one future joint model showed significant decreases in overall spatial percentage change. The most dramatic loss in predator-prey population overlap was shown by harbor seals with large declines in the common spatial trend for both prey species. On the positive side, both gannets and guillemots are projected to have localized regions with increased overlap with sandeels. Most joint predator-prey models showed large changes in centroid location, however the direction of change in centroids was not simply northwards, but mostly ranged from northwest to northeast. This approach can be very useful in informing the design of spatial management policies under climate change by using the potential differences in ecological costs to weigh up the trade-offs in decisions involving issues of large-scale spatial use of our oceans, such as marine protected areas, commercial fishing, and large-scale marine renewable developments.

Project description:Small mammal abundances are frequently limited by resource availability, but predators can exert strong lethal (mortality) and nonlethal (e.g., nest abandonment) limitations. Artificially increasing resource availability for uncommon small mammals provides a unique opportunity to examine predator-prey interactions. We used remote cameras to monitor 168 nest platforms placed in the live tree canopy (n = 23 young forest stands), primarily for arboreal red tree voles (tree voles; Arborimus longicaudus), over 3 years (n = 15,510 monitoring-weeks). Tree voles frequently built nests and were detected 37% of monitoring-weeks, whereas flying squirrels (Glaucomys oregonensis) built nests infrequently but were detected 45% of monitoring-weeks. Most nest predators were detected infrequently (<1% of monitoring-weeks) and were positively correlated with tree vole presence. Weasels (Mustela spp.) were highly effective predators of tree voles (n = 8 mortalities; 10% of detections) compared to owls (n = 1), flying squirrels (n = 2), and Steller's jays (n = 1). Tree vole activity decreased from 84.1 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 56.2, 111.9) detections/week 1-week prior to a weasel detection to 4.7 detections/week (95% CI: 1.7, 7.8) 1-week postdetection and remained low for at least 12 weeks. Interpretations of predator-prey interactions were highly sensitive to how we binned continuously collected data and model results from our finest bin width were biologically counter-intuitive. Average annual survival of female tree voles was consistent with a previous study (0.14; 95% CI: -0.04 [0.01], 0.32) and high compared to many terrestrial voles. The relative infrequency of weasel detections and inefficiency of other predators did not provide strong support for the hypothesis that predation per se limited populations. Rather, predation pressure, by reducing occupancy of already scarce nest sites through mortality and nest abandonment, may contribute to long-term local instability of tree vole populations in young forests. Additional monitoring would be needed to assess this hypothesis.

Dataset Information

Ecological opportunity and upward prey-predator radiation cascades.

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Ecological opportunity and upward prey-predator radiation cascades.

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