Dataset Information

Biomarkers versus traditional risk factors to predict cardiovascular events in very old adults: cross-validated prospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To test new cardiovascular (CV) risk models in very old adults with and without a history of CV disease (CVD), based on traditional risk factors and biomarkers.

Design

Cross-validated prospective cohort study. The models were tested in the BELFRAIL Study and externally validated in the Leiden 85-plus Study.

Setting

General practice, Belgium and The Netherlands.

Participants

The BELFRAIL cohort consisted of 266 patients aged 80 years or older without a history of CVD and 260 with a history of CVD. The Leiden 85-plus Study consisted of 264 patients aged 85 years without a history of CVD and 282 with a history of CVD.

Outcome measures

The model with traditional risk factors and biomarkers, as well as the model using only biomarkers, was compared with the model with only traditional risk factors to predict 3-year CV morbidity and mortality. A competing-risk analysis was performed, and the continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net benefit were used to compare the predictive value of the different models.

Results

Traditional risk factors poorly predicted CV mortality and morbidity. In participants without a history of CVD, adding N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) improved the prediction (NRI 0.56 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.99) and relative IDI 4.01 (95% CI 2.19 to 6.28)). In participants with a history of CVD, the NRI with the addition of NT-pro-BNP and high-sensitivity C reactive protein was 0.38 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.70), and the relative IDI was 0.53 (95% CI 0.23 to 0.90). Moreover, in participants without a history of CVD, NT-pro-BNP performed well as a stand-alone predictor (NRI 0.32 (95% CI -0.12 to 0.74) and relative IDI 3.44 (95% CI 1.56 to 6.09)).

Conclusions

This study tested new risk models to predict CV morbidity and mortality in very old adults. Especially, NT-pro-BNP showed a strong added predictive value. This opens perspectives for clinicians who are in need of an easily applicable strategy for CV risk prediction in very old adults.

SUBMITTER: Vaes B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7322328 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Biomarkers versus traditional risk factors to predict cardiovascular events in very old adults: cross-validated prospective cohort study.

Vaes Bert B Indestege Paulien P Serneels Tinne T Hegendörfer Eralda E van Peet Petra G PG Poortvliet Rosalinde K E RKE Wallemacq Pierre P Gussekloo Jacobijn J Degryse Jan J

BMJ open 20200628 6

<h4>Objectives</h4>To test new cardiovascular (CV) risk models in very old adults with and without a history of CV disease (CVD), based on traditional risk factors and biomarkers.<h4>Design</h4>Cross-validated prospective cohort study. The models were tested in the BELFRAIL Study and externally validated in the Leiden 85-plus Study.<h4>Setting</h4>General practice, Belgium and The Netherlands.<h4>Participants</h4>The BELFRAIL cohort consisted of 266 patients aged 80 years or older without a hist ...[more]

PMID: 32595156

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundAccurate assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk across heterogeneous populations is needed for effective primary prevention. Little is known about the performance of standard cardiovascular risk factors in older adults.ObjectiveTo evaluate the performance of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) risk model, as well as the underlying cardiovascular risk factors, among adults older than 65 years.Design and settingRetrospective cohort derived from a regional referral system's electronic medical records.ParticipantsA total of 25 349 patients who were 65 years or older at study baseline (date of the first outpatient lipid panel taken between 2007 and 2010).MeasurementsExposures of interest were traditional cardiovascular risk factors, as defined by inclusion in the PCE model. The primary outcome was major ASCVD events, defined as a composite of myocardial infarctions, stroke, and cardiovascular death.ResultsThe PCE and internally estimated models produced similar risk distributions for white men aged 65 to 74 years. For all other groups, PCE predictions were generally lower than those of the internal models, particularly for African Americans. Discrimination of the PCE was poor for all age groups, with concordance index (95% confidence interval) estimates of 0.62 (0.60-0.64), 0.56 (0.54-0.57), and 0.52 (0.49-0.54) among patients aged 65 to 74, 75 to 84, and 85 years and older, respectively. Reestimating relationships within these age groups resulted in better calibration but negligible improvements in discrimination. Blood pressure, total cholesterol, and diabetes either were not associated at all or had inverse associations in the older age groups.ConclusionTraditional clinical risk factors for cardiovascular disease failed to accurately characterize risk in a contemporary population of Medicare-aged patients. Among those aged 85 years and older, some traditional risk factors were not associated with ASCVD events. Better risk models are needed to appropriately inform treatment decision making for the growing population of older adults. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:754-761, 2020.

Project description:Introduction: Several lines of evidence reveal that cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer share similar common pathological milieus. The prevalence of the two diseases is growing as the population ages and the burden of shared risk factors increases. In this respect, we hypothesise that tumour biomarkers can be potential predictors of CVD outcomes in the general population. Methods: We measured six tumour biomarkers (AFP, CA125, CA15-3, CA19-9, CEA and CYFRA 21-1) and determined their predictive value for CVD in the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND) study. A total of 8,592 subjects were enrolled in the study. Results: The levels of CEA significantly predicted CV morbidity and mortality, with hazard ratios (HRs) of HR 1.28 (95% CI 1.08-1.53), respectively. Two biomarkers (CA15-3 and CEA) showed statistical significance in predicting all-cause mortality, with HRs 1.58 (95% CI 1.18-2.12) and HR 1.60 (95% CI 1.30-1.96), when adjusted for shared risk factors and prevalent CVD. Furthermore, biomarkers seem to be sex specific. CYFRA 21-1 presented as an independent predictor of CV morbidity and mortality in female, but not in male gender, with HR 1.82 (95% CI 1.40-2.35). When it comes to all-cause mortality, both CYFRA and CEA show statistical significance in male gender, with HR 1.64 (95% CI 1.28-3.12) and HR 1.55 (95% CI 1.18-2.02), while only CEA showed statistical significance in female gender, with HR 1.64 (95% CI 1.20-2.24). Lastly, CA15-3 and CEA strongly predicted CV mortality with HR 3.01 (95% CI 1.70-5.32) and HR 1.82 (95% CI 1.30-2.56). On another hand, CA 15-3 also presented as an independent predictor of heart failure (HF) with HR 1.67 (95% CI 1.15-2.42). Conclusion: Several tumour biomarkers demonstrated independent prognostic value for CV events and all-cause mortality in a large cohort from the general population. These findings support the notion that CVD and cancer are associated with similar pathological milieus.

Project description:BackgroundRoutine apolipoprotein (apo) measurements for cardiovascular disease (CVD) are restricted to apoA-I and apoB. Here, the authors measured an unprecedented range of apolipoproteins in a prospective, population-based study and relate their plasma levels to risk of CVD.ObjectivesThis study sought to measure apolipoproteins directly by mass spectrometry and compare their associations with incident CVD and to obtain a system-level understanding of the correlations of apolipoproteins with the plasma lipidome and proteome.MethodsAssociations of 13 apolipoproteins, 135 lipid species, and 211 other plasma proteins with incident CVD (91 events), defined as stroke, myocardial infarction, or sudden cardiac death, were assessed prospectively over a 10-year period in the Bruneck Study (N = 688) using multiple-reaction monitoring mass spectrometry. Changes in apolipoprotein and lipid levels following treatment with volanesorsen, a second-generation antisense drug targeting apoC-III, were determined in 2 human intervention trials, one of which was randomized.ResultsThe apolipoproteins most significantly associated with incident CVD were apoC-II (hazard ratio per 1 SD [HR/SD]: 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.17 to 1.67), apoC-III (HR/SD: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.17 to 1.63), and apoE (HR/SD: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.13 to 1.52). Associations were independent of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol, and extended to stroke and myocardial infarction. Lipidomic and proteomic profiles implicated these 3 very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL)-associated apolipoproteins in de novo lipogenesis, glucose metabolism, complement activation, blood coagulation, and inflammation. Notably, apoC-II/apoC-III/apoE correlated with a pattern of lipid species previously linked to CVD risk. ApoC-III inhibition by volanesorsen reduced plasma levels of apoC-II, apoC-III, triacylglycerols, and diacylglycerols, and increased apoA-I, apoA-II, and apoM (all p < 0.05 vs. placebo) without affecting apoB-100 (p = 0.73).ConclusionsThe strong associations of VLDL-associated apolipoproteins with incident CVD in the general community support the concept of targeting triacylglycerol-rich lipoproteins to reduce risk of CVD.

Project description:To assess whether statin treatment is associated with a reduction in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality in old and very old adults with and without diabetes.Retrospective cohort study.Database of the Catalan primary care system (SIDIAP), Spain, 2006-15.46 864 people aged 75 years or more without clinically recognised atherosclerotic CVD. Participants were stratified by presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus and as statin non-users or new users.Incidences of atherosclerotic CVD and all cause mortality compared using Cox proportional hazards modelling, adjusted by the propensity score of statin treatment. The relation of age with the effect of statins was assessed using both a categorical approach, stratifying the analysis by old (75-84 years) and very old (≥85 years) age groups, and a continuous analysis, using an additive Cox proportional hazard model.The cohort included 46 864 participants (mean age 77 years; 63% women; median follow-up 5.6 years). In participants without diabetes, the hazard ratios for statin use in 75-84 year olds were 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.86 to 1.04) for atherosclerotic CVD and 0.98 (0.91 to 1.05) for all cause mortality, and in those aged 85 and older were 0.93 (0.82 to 1.06) and 0.97 (0.90 to 1.05), respectively. In participants with diabetes, the hazard ratio of statin use in 75-84 year olds was 0.76 (0.65 to 0.89) for atherosclerotic CVD and 0.84 (0.75 to 0.94) for all cause mortality, and in those aged 85 and older were 0.82 (0.53 to 1.26) and 1.05 (0.86 to 1.28), respectively. Similarly, effect analysis of age in a continuous scale, using splines, corroborated the lack of beneficial statins effect for atherosclerotic CVD and all cause mortality in participants without diabetes older than 74 years. In participants with diabetes, statins showed a protective effect against atherosclerotic CVD and all cause mortality; this effect was substantially reduced beyond the age of 85 years and disappeared in nonagenarians.In participants older than 74 years without type 2 diabetes, statin treatment was not associated with a reduction in atherosclerotic CVD or in all cause mortality, even when the incidence of atherosclerotic CVD was statistically significantly higher than the risk thresholds proposed for statin use. In the presence of diabetes, statin use was statistically significantly associated with reductions in the incidence of atherosclerotic CVD and in all cause mortality. This effect decreased after age 85 years and disappeared in nonagenarians.

Project description:Background: Although various biomarkers predict cardiovascular event (CVE) in patients with diabetes, the relationship of urinary glycan profile with CVE in patients with diabetes remains unclear. Methods: Among 680 patients with type 2 diabetes, we examined the baseline urinary glycan signals binding to 45 lectins with different specificities. Primary outcome was defined as CVE including cardiovascular disease, stroke, and peripheral arterial disease. Results: During approximately a 5-year follow-up period, 62 patients reached the endpoint. Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that urinary glycan signals binding to two lectins were significantly associated with the outcome after adjustment for known indicators of CVE and for false discovery rate, as well as increased model fitness. Hazard ratios for these lectins (+1 SD for the glycan index) were UDA (recognizing glycan: mixture of Man5 to Man9): 1.78 (95% CI: 1.24-2.55, P = 0.002) and Calsepa [High-Man (Man2-6)]: 1.56 (1.19-2.04, P = 0.001). Common glycan binding to these lectins was high-mannose type of N-glycans. Moreover, adding glycan index for UDA to a model including known confounders improved the outcome prediction [Difference of Harrel's C-index: 0.028 (95% CI: 0.001-0.055, P = 0.044), net reclassification improvement at 5-year risk increased by 0.368 (0.045-0.692, P = 0.026), and the Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion decreased from 725.7 to 716.5, and 761.8 to 757.2, respectively]. Conclusion: The urinary excretion of high-mannose glycan may be a valuable biomarker for improving prediction of CVE in patients with type 2 diabetes, and provides the rationale to explore the mechanism underlying abnormal N-glycosylation occurring in patients with diabetes at higher risk of CVE. Trial Registration: This study was registered with the University Hospital Medical Information Network on June 26, 2012 (Clinical trial number: UMIN000011525, URL: https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000013482).

Project description:In Romania (latitude 48°15'N to 43°40'N), vitamin D supplementation is common practice mostly in infants 0-1 year old. No published information is available regarding epidemiological data on vitamin D status in the Romanian population for a wide age range and geographical territory. In this context, we aimed to evaluate the seasonal and age variation of vitamin D status in a large Romanian population.6631 individuals from across Romania had performed 7544 vitamin D assessments (2012-2014) in a chain of private laboratories. Vitamin D (25-hydroxyvitamin D2 and 25-hydroxyvitamin D3) was measured using High Performance Liquid Chromatography. Vitamin D levels were classified as severe deficiency<10 ng/mL, deficiency 10-20 ng/mL, insufficiency 21-29 ng/mL, sufficiency ? 30 ng/mL and potentially harmful>100 ng/ml.Male to female ratio was 1:2.9. Age ranged from 0 to 85 years. Mean vitamin D levels increased from April (26.3n g/ml) to September (35.6 ng/ml) and decreased from October (33.5 ng/ml) to March (24.4 ng/ml). Overall 40% had sufficient vitamin D, while the rest were insufficient 33%, deficient 22%, severely deficient 4% and 1% potentially harmful (of them 81% under 1 year old). Males compared to females showed higher percentages of sufficiency (47% vs. 38%). Children 0- 2 years presented the highest percentage of vitamin D sufficiency (77%). Lowest percentages (21%) of sufficiency were in people 80-84 years.In Romania, suboptimal vitamin D levels are common (59%), especially in older age, wintertime and in women. Vitamin D supplementation would be most warranted from January to April in the Romanian population. 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels > 100 ng/ml were relatively prevalent in children 0-1 year old (17.3%). This was attributed to supplementation errors and the fact that high-risk individuals were more likely to visit for medical check-up. Nonetheless, it stresses the need to increase awareness of the importance of preventing Vitamin D supplementation administration errors in the young.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Childhood cancer survivors have an increased risk of heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and stroke. They may benefit from prediction models that account for cardiotoxic cancer treatment exposures combined with information on traditional cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes. METHODS:Childhood Cancer Survivor Study participants (n?=?22 643) were followed through age 50?years for incident heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and stroke. Siblings (n?=?5056) served as a comparator. Participants were assessed longitudinally for hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes based on self-reported prescription medication use. Half the cohort was used for discovery; the remainder for replication. Models for each outcome were created for survivors ages 20, 25, 30, and 35?years at the time of prediction (n?=?12 models). RESULTS:For discovery, risk scores based on demographic, cancer treatment, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes information achieved areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and concordance statistics 0.70 or greater in 9 and 10 of the 12 models, respectively. For replication, achieved areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and concordance statistics 0.70 or greater were observed in 7 and 9 of the models, respectively. Across outcomes, the most influential exposures were anthracycline chemotherapy, radiotherapy, diabetes, and hypertension. Survivors were then assigned to statistically distinct risk groups corresponding to cumulative incidences at age 50 years of each target outcome of less than 3% (moderate-risk) or approximately 10% or greater (high-risk). Cumulative incidence of all outcomes was 1% or less among siblings. CONCLUSIONS:Traditional cardiovascular risk factors remain important for predicting risk of cardiovascular disease among adult-age survivors of childhood cancer. These prediction models provide a framework on which to base future surveillance strategies and interventions.

Dataset Information

Biomarkers versus traditional risk factors to predict cardiovascular events in very old adults: cross-validated prospective cohort study.

Objectives

Design

Setting

Participants

Outcome measures

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Biomarkers versus traditional risk factors to predict cardiovascular events in very old adults: cross-validated prospective cohort study.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets