Dataset Information

Development of a risk score for early saphenous vein graft failure: An individual patient data meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Early saphenous vein graft (SVG) occlusion is typically attributed to technical factors. We aimed at exploring clinical, anatomical, and operative factors associated with the risk of early SVG occlusion (within 12 months postsurgery).

Methods

Published literature in MEDLINE was searched for studies reporting the incidence of early SVG occlusion. Individual patient data (IPD) on early SVG occlusion were used from the SAFINOUS-CABG Consortium. A derivation (n = 1492 patients) and validation (n = 372 patients) cohort were used for model training (with 10-fold cross-validation) and external validation respectively.

Results

In aggregate data meta-analysis (48 studies, 41,530 SVGs) the pooled estimate for early SVG occlusion was 11%. The developed IPD model for early SVG occlusion, which included clinical, anatomical, and operative characteristics (age, sex, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking, serum creatinine, endoscopic vein harvesting, use of complex grafts, grafted target vessel, and number of SVGs), had good performance in the derivation (c-index = 0.744; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.701-0.774) and validation cohort (c-index = 0.734; 95% CI, 0.659-0.809). Based on this model. we constructed a simplified 12-variable risk score system (SAFINOUS score) with good performance for early SVG occlusion (c-index = 0.700, 95% CI, 0.684-0.716).

Conclusions

From a large international IPD collaboration, we developed a novel risk score to assess the individualized risk for early SVG occlusion. The SAFINOUS risk score could be used to identify patients that are more likely to benefit from aggressive treatment strategies.

SUBMITTER: Antonopoulos AS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7322547 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundCoronary artery bypass grafting success is limited by vein graft failure (VGF). Understanding the factors associated with VGF may improve patient outcomes.Methods and resultsWe examined 1828 participants in the Project of Ex Vivo Vein Graft Engineering via Transfection IV (PREVENT IV) trial undergoing protocol-mandated follow-up angiography 12 to 18 months post-coronary artery bypass grafting or earlier clinically driven angiography. Outcomes included patient- and graft-level angiographic VGF (≥75% stenosis or occlusion). Variables were selected by using Fast False Selection Rate methodology. We examined relationships between variables and VGF in patient- and graft-level models by using logistic regression without and with generalized estimating equations. At 12 to 18 months post-coronary artery bypass grafting, 782 of 1828 (42.8%) patients had VGF, and 1096 of 4343 (25.2%) vein grafts had failed. Demographic and clinical characteristics were similar between patients with and without VGF, although VGF patients had longer surgical times, worse target artery quality, longer graft length, and they more frequently underwent endoscopic vein harvesting. After multivariable adjustment, longer surgical duration (odds ratio per 10-minute increase, 1.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.07), endoscopic vein harvesting (odds ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-1.71), poor target artery quality (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.84), and postoperative use of clopidogrel or ticlopidine (odds ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.69) were associated with patient-level VGF. The predicted likelihood of VGF in the graft-level model ranged from 12.1% to 63.6%.ConclusionsVGF is common and associated with patient and surgical factors. These findings may help identify patients with risk factors for VGF and inform the development of interventions to reduce VGF.Clinical trial registration urlhttp://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00042081.