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Establishing seasonal and alert influenza thresholds in Morocco.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Several statistical methods of variable complexity have been developed to establish thresholds for influenza activity that may be used to inform public health guidance. We compared the results of two methods and explored how they worked to characterize the 2018 influenza season performance-2018 season. METHODS:Historical data from the 2005/2006 to 2016/2018 influenza season performance seasons were provided by a network of 412 primary health centers in charge of influenza like illness (ILI) sentinel surveillance. We used the WHO averages and the moving epidemic method (MEM) to evaluate the proportion of ILI visits among all outpatient consultations (ILI%) as a proxy for influenza activity. We also used the MEM method to evaluate three seasons of composite data (ILI% multiplied by percent of ILI with laboratory-confirmed influenza) as recommended by WHO. RESULTS:The WHO method estimated the seasonal ILI% threshold at 0.9%. The annual epidemic period began on average at week 46 and lasted an average of 18?weeks. The MEM model estimated the epidemic threshold (corresponding to the WHO seasonal threshold) at 1.5% of ILI visits among all outpatient consultations. The annual epidemic period began on week 49 and lasted on average 14?weeks. Intensity thresholds were similar using both methods. When using the composite measure, the MEM method showed a clearer estimate of the beginning of the influenza epidemic, which was coincident with a sharp increase in confirmed ILI cases. CONCLUSIONS:We found that the threshold methodology presented in the WHO manual is simple to implement and easy to adopt for use by the Moroccan influenza surveillance system. The MEM method is more statistically sophisticated and may allow a better detection of the start of seasonal epidemics. Incorporation of virologic data into the composite parameter as recommended by WHO has the potential to increase the accuracy of seasonal threshold estimation.

SUBMITTER: Rguig A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7323370 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Establishing seasonal and alert influenza thresholds in Morocco.

Rguig Ahmed A Cherkaoui Imad I McCarron Margaret M Oumzil Hicham H Triki Soumia S Elmbarki Houria H Bimouhen Abderrahman A El Falaki Fatima F Regragui Zakia Z Ihazmad Hassan H Nejjari Chakib C Youbi Mohammed M

BMC public health 20200629 1

<h4>Background</h4>Several statistical methods of variable complexity have been developed to establish thresholds for influenza activity that may be used to inform public health guidance. We compared the results of two methods and explored how they worked to characterize the 2018 influenza season performance-2018 season.<h4>Methods</h4>Historical data from the 2005/2006 to 2016/2018 influenza season performance seasons were provided by a network of 412 primary health centers in charge of influen ...[more]

PMID: 32600376

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Vaccines for the control of seasonal influenza are recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for use in specific risk groups, but their use requires operational considerations that may challenge immunization programs. Several middle-income countries have recently implemented seasonal influenza vaccination. Early program evaluation following vaccine introduction can help ascertain positive lessons learned and areas for improvement. METHODS:An influenza vaccine post-introduction evaluation (IPIE) tool was developed jointly by WHO and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to provide a systematic approach to assess influenza vaccine implementation processes. The tool was used in 2017 in three middle-income countries: Belarus, Morocco and Thailand. RESULTS:Data from the three countries highlighted a number of critical factors: Health workers (HWs) are a key target group, given their roles as key influencers of acceptance by other groups, and for ensuring vaccine delivery and improved coverage. Despite WHO recommendations, pregnant women were not always prioritized and may present unique challenges for acceptance. Target group denominators need to be better defined, and vaccine coverage should be validated with vaccine distribution data, including from the private sector. There is a need for strengthening adverse events reporting and for addressing potential vaccine hesitancy through the establishment of risk communication plans. The assessments led to improvements in the countries' influenza vaccination programs, including a revision of policies, changes in vaccine management and coverage estimation, enhanced strategies for educating HWs and intensified collaboration between departments involved in implementing seasonal influenza vaccination. CONCLUSION:The IPIE tool was found useful for delineating operational strengths and weaknesses of seasonal influenza vaccination programs. HWs emerged as a critical target group to be addressed in follow-up action. Findings from this study can help direct influenza vaccination programs in other countries, as well as contribute to pandemic preparedness efforts. The updated IPIE tool is available on the WHO website http://www.who.int/immunization/research/development/influenza/en/index1.html.

Project description:Context and objectiveStandards for clinical practice guidelines require explicit statements regarding how values and preferences influence recommendations. However, no cancer screening guideline has addressed the key question of what magnitude of benefit people require to undergo screening, given its harms and burdens. This article describes the development of a new method for guideline developers to address this key question in the absence of high-quality evidence from published literature.Summary of methodThe new method was developed and applied in the context of a recent BMJ Rapid Recommendation clinical practice guideline for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. First, we presented the guideline panel with harms and burdens (derived from a systematic review) associated with the CRC screening tests under consideration. Second, each panel member completed surveys documenting their views of expected benefits on CRC incidence and mortality that people would require to accept the harms and burdens of screening. Third, the panel discussed results of the surveys and agreed on thresholds for benefits at which the majority of people would choose screening. During these three steps, the panel had no access to the actual benefits of the screening tests. In step four, the panel was presented with screening test benefits derived from a systematic review of clinical trials and microsimulation modelling. The thresholds derived through steps one to three were applied to these benefits, and directly informed the panel's recommendations.ConclusionWe present the development and application of a new, four-step method enabling incorporation of explicit and transparent judgements of values and preferences in a screening guideline. Guideline panels should establish their view regarding the magnitude of required benefit, given burdens and harms, before they review screening benefits and make their recommendations accordingly. Making informed screening decisions requires transparency in values and preferences judgements that our new method greatly facilitates.

Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding minimum clinically important differences (MCID) in patient-reported outcomes is essential in interpreting the magnitude of changes in these measures. No MCID from patients' perspectives has ever been published for peripheral artery disease-specific health status assessment tools. The Peripheral Artery Questionnaire (PAQ) is a commonly used, validated peripheral artery disease-specific health status instrument for which we sought to prospectively establish its MCID from patients' perspectives.Methods and resultsPatients presenting to vascular clinics with new or worsened claudication in the US cohort of the PORTRAIT (Patient-Centered Outcomes Related to Treatment Practices in Peripheral Arterial Disease: Investigating Trajectories) registry who completed baseline and follow-up PAQ assessments along with the Global Assessment of Functioning scale were included. Mean change in PAQ summary scores from 3- to 6-month follow-up was calculated according to Global Assessment of Functioning category. MCID was defined as the mean difference in scores between those with small improvement or deterioration and those with no change. Multivariable linear regression was used to provide an MCID estimate after adjusting for patients' 3-month PAQ score. Of the 483 patients who completed the Global Assessment of Functioning score at 6 months and who had available 3- and 6-month PAQ assessments, the mean age was 69 years, 42% were female, and 71% were White. The MCIDs for PAQ summary scale improvement and worsening were 8.7 (2.9-14.5) and -11.0 (-18.6 to -3.3), respectively. After multivariable adjustment, these were 8.9 (3.0-14.8) and -11.2 (-18.2 to -4.2), respectively. There was no significant interaction between treatment (invasive versus noninvasive) and Global Assessment of Functioning response (P=0.75).ConclusionsIn patients with new or worsened claudication, a 10-point change in PAQ summary score represents an MCID. This estimate needs external validation and may inform the interpretation of PAQ scores when used as outcomes in clinical trials or in routine clinical care. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01419080.

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Establishing seasonal and alert influenza thresholds in Morocco.

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Establishing seasonal and alert influenza thresholds in Morocco.

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